‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world • Hacker News Board

Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#161

Post by shkkmo » Sun, Apr 25, 2021, 4:20 AM UTC

jjoonathan wrote: post #122

toomuchtodo wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m satisfied with the data and contents of the post to substantiate my assertion. You are free to cite your own sources if you disagree. I believe the Brookings Institute to be a reportable source. My intent in no way is to deceive or put forth bad data.

Your source doesn't support your assertion, but I suppose you're free to ignore that little problem if you want to. In the meantime, we should be talking about how best to make storage happen, because anyone who isn't busy playing semantics games can see that storage (critically: paying for storage) is going to dominate the back half of this transition.

The claims were being made that net metering currently has a set of issues that makes the referenced policy a generous policy. The link provides seems plenty to refute that claim to me. You seem to be moving the goals posts here.

If you combine net metering with time based pricing, it seems like there is plenty of incentive for smart people like you to build energy storage and make money off of arbitrage.

Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#162

Post by PragmaticPulp » Sun, Apr 25, 2021, 4:24 AM UTC

enraged_camel wrote: post #110

sxates wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I actually talked about this in a previous comment: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25283461

>> Of that $15k, $4.3k was for the panels themselves, $2k for the inverter, $1k for mounting hardware, and $8k for installation. What about on-site battery? In any case, $15k is still a bit too steep for me, not because I can't afford it but because I want something that'll pay for itself in less than 5 years. My electricity bill is about $150/mo. so a solar roof doesn't make sense financially, even if I'm able to se…

> What about on-site battery?

Typical systems don’t have a battery, nor do they need one.

The grid is used as the battery.

An off-grid solar installation is significantly more expensive.

Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#163

Post by chrismcb » Sun, Apr 25, 2021, 4:29 AM UTC

puranjay wrote: post #71

toomuchtodo wrote: post #2

Relevant quote: "Every time you double producing capacity, you reduce the cost of PV solar by 28%." Current worldwide PV manufacturing capacity is roughly 165 GW [1] [2], with a utility scale price close to $0.01/kWh [3]. Manufacturing capacity is doubling every ~4 years. Global PV capacity in service is ~600 GW. IEA Average global annual capacity additions in main and accelerated cases, 2023-2025: https://www.iea.or…

I think researchers underestimated how much solar simply “makes sense” to the average person. Once the price is reasonable enough, people are very easily able to latch onto the idea of using what they already know and feel - the sun’s heat. Whenever I mention the solar panels in my parents house, the first question is always about the price. When I tell them they will break even in a few years, their next question is…

Unless you live in the sunbelt, it will take more than a few years to recoup. Factor in replacing the inventor every 7 years, it becomes questionable, it also depends on your storage solution or local buy back program. Add an electric car to the mix and it becomes feasible. But I think it still needs to become cheaper.

Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#164

Post by Spooky23 » Sun, Apr 25, 2021, 4:32 AM UTC

mulmboy wrote: post #82

Spooky23 wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Peak solar production is in the summer. Peak electricity demand is driven by AC, primarily when it’s hot... in the summer.

Peak solar production during the middlish periods of the day in summer. Peak demand (if your grid is summer peaking - some peak in winter) is likely in the afternoon when people get home, right as solar output starts to taper off. It all varies a bit by culture and climate, but I think this is largely true.

This pattern may have changed or be different in different states, but I did participate in a project (about 15 years ago) where we essentially agreed to offline a very significant facility including a datacenter at short notice in exchange for a rebate and capital funds.

In our case I definitely recall most of those outages happening midday as it screwed up lunch. There were other factors as well (I think transmission efficiency diminishes as you approach capacity, so localized issues are a thing)

Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#165

Post by rhodozelia » Sun, Apr 25, 2021, 4:34 AM UTC

chrismcb wrote: post #163

puranjay wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think researchers underestimated how much solar simply “makes sense” to the average person. Once the price is reasonable enough, people are very easily able to latch onto the idea of using what they already know and feel - the sun’s heat. Whenever I mention the solar panels in my parents house, the first question is always about the price. When I tell them they will break even in a few years, their next question is…

Unless you live in the sunbelt, it will take more than a few years to recoup. Factor in replacing the inventor every 7 years, it becomes questionable, it also depends on your storage solution or local buy back program. Add an electric car to the mix and it becomes feasible. But I think it still needs to become cheaper.

Any source for inverter life span only 7 years ?

Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#166

Post by ShakataGaNai » Sun, Apr 25, 2021, 4:36 AM UTC

richwater wrote: post #30

sxates wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My house in California is peaking around 70kWh this time of year (April, 14kw system), well more than we're using. I can charge my tesla during the day and still be exporting to the grid. Most afternoons my house is probably powering every house on my street.

How much was your system?

Not OP but in NorCal (BayArea) is about $3/what. My 9.4kw system is generating about 55kwh a day right now. Because of the mild weather we've had, the last day we used more net power from the grid (than we produced) was March 18.

Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#167

Post by ezzaf » Sun, Apr 25, 2021, 4:38 AM UTC

koolba wrote: post #78

puranjay wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think researchers underestimated how much solar simply “makes sense” to the average person. Once the price is reasonable enough, people are very easily able to latch onto the idea of using what they already know and feel - the sun’s heat. Whenever I mention the solar panels in my parents house, the first question is always about the price. When I tell them they will break even in a few years, their next question is…

Where are we at in 2021 for pay off period? Does it vary by region?

Hugely. A few of the main factors that will determine your payoff time:

- Subsidies. - Cost of labour. How much do you need to pay to install the panels? - Your energy usage patterns. If you use a lot of energy when the sun is shining, your panels will pay themselves off faster. - Cost of transmission of energy. How much does it cost to get the energy from the generator to you. - Cost of energy. How much it costs to generate energy where you are. - Location. Proximity to the equator, annual sunshine hours, shading, panel angle.

Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#168

Post by artificialLimbs » Sun, Apr 25, 2021, 4:40 AM UTC

dane-pgp wrote: post #118

puranjay wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think researchers underestimated how much solar simply “makes sense” to the average person. Once the price is reasonable enough, people are very easily able to latch onto the idea of using what they already know and feel - the sun’s heat. Whenever I mention the solar panels in my parents house, the first question is always about the price. When I tell them they will break even in a few years, their next question is…

> I tell them they will break even in a few years Then why don't more companies offer to become your electricity provider and install the solar panels for free? They could say "We promise that your energy bills will be cheaper this year than last year (as long as you don't use more energy), and within a few years you'll own the panels and can switch to a different electricity provider."

This would be more palatable than "We're going to install these panels after you buy then and provide x warranty". I've had 3 solar companies come give us prices on our house. If the company folds/disappears then the warranty doesn't mean squat and if there is any breakage after that happens, we're likely to end up in the red.

Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#169

Post by epistasis » Sun, Apr 25, 2021, 4:40 AM UTC

conradev wrote: post #96

puranjay wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think researchers underestimated how much solar simply “makes sense” to the average person. Once the price is reasonable enough, people are very easily able to latch onto the idea of using what they already know and feel - the sun’s heat. Whenever I mention the solar panels in my parents house, the first question is always about the price. When I tell them they will break even in a few years, their next question is…

My favorite part of PV is that you can scale it to fit any power generating capacity, from a residential roof all the way up to a 50MW farm. It’s fairly linear, too, in terms of land usage and cost, which makes it easy to understand.

Yes, this is really the crucial thing about solar. It scales, in all directions, from small to large.

Production capacity is scaling too, though just barely at the edge of what we need. I really wish that governments would commit hard to decarbonization of the hydrogen market (including ammonia for fertilizer), through solar/wind + elctrolyzers. The only thing stopping further scaling of production capacity is the demand side of things. Having an extra 50-100 GW of solar production to decarbonize industry would really speed the climate transition. But until there's the guaranteed market for it, the market is going to develop very slowly until green hydrogen is cheaper than natural gas as an input.

Germany pushed solar along when it wasn't cheap, greatly accelerating the fall off solar prices. All governments should push industrial chemical process decarbonization together.

Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#170

Post by CryptoPunk » Sun, Apr 25, 2021, 4:44 AM UTC

FooHentai wrote: post #64

greenearth1 wrote: post #10

This is why pushing for free markets is the most effective solution for combating fossil fuel dependencies.

Hmm, difficult to agree with that as a blanket statement. Generally that kind of absolutist thinking is as flawed as the same in the other direction. The optimum is likely somewhere in the middle. For example, failure to price in externalities in a 'free' market is one of the biggest flaws, and exactly why we find ourselves in a situation of having way too much CO2 in the atmosphere.

I don't think any serious free market advocate thinks the government doesn't have a place in restricting and producing negative and positive externalities, respectively.

A free market generally means one where one's control over their person and private property is not restricted as long as that control is not being exercised to violate other's equal right to their person and private property, and to the commons.

But other than definitions, I agree with you.