‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world • Hacker News Board

Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#121

Post by toomuchtodo » Sun, Apr 25, 2021, 12:19 AM UTC

jjoonathan wrote: post #117

toomuchtodo wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These fallacies against net metering have been disproven. See the linked citation for details. “Nevertheless, by the end of 2015, regulators in at least 10 states had conducted studies to develop methodologies to value distributed generation and net metering, while other states conducted less formal inquiries, ranging from direct rate design or net-metering policy changes to general education of decisionmakers and th…

That link of yours states again and again and again that net metering doesn't cost shift as if this were a general principle, but if you look at its sub resources you see support for very different conclusions, namely: * Solar doesn't yet have enough market penetration for the duck curve to be a problem. We're still in the early days where cutting peak usage benefits everyone. * Social good rationalizes the cost shif…

I’m satisfied with the data and contents of the post to substantiate my assertion. You are free to cite your own sources if you disagree. I believe the Brookings Institute to be a reportable source.

My intent in no way is to deceive or put forth bad data.

Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#122

Post by jjoonathan » Sun, Apr 25, 2021, 12:24 AM UTC

toomuchtodo wrote: post #121

jjoonathan wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That link of yours states again and again and again that net metering doesn't cost shift as if this were a general principle, but if you look at its sub resources you see support for very different conclusions, namely: * Solar doesn't yet have enough market penetration for the duck curve to be a problem. We're still in the early days where cutting peak usage benefits everyone. * Social good rationalizes the cost shif…

I’m satisfied with the data and contents of the post to substantiate my assertion. You are free to cite your own sources if you disagree. I believe the Brookings Institute to be a reportable source. My intent in no way is to deceive or put forth bad data.

Your source doesn't support your assertion, but I suppose you're free to ignore that little problem if you want to.

In the meantime, we should be talking about how best to make storage happen, because anyone who isn't busy playing semantics games can see that storage (critically: paying for storage) is going to dominate the back half of this transition.

Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#123

Post by mulmboy » Sun, Apr 25, 2021, 12:28 AM UTC

Retric wrote: post #93

mulmboy wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Peak solar production during the middlish periods of the day in summer. Peak demand (if your grid is summer peaking - some peak in winter) is likely in the afternoon when people get home, right as solar output starts to taper off. It all varies a bit by culture and climate, but I think this is largely true.

You can easily offset that changing the angle the panels are installed at. People think in terms of maximum total output but tracking solar show significant power is available late in the day. As solar keeps getting cheaper the question shifts further from how do I get maximum power to how do I maximize my investment. Which is a slightly different and far more complex optimization problem.

Yeah you're right. But, tracking solar (and solar with fixed positioning that maximises energy output later in the day) largely applies for more sophisticated sites such as commercial and industrial. I've seen such setups that forego around 20% of solar energy production to maximise production during more expensive time of use windows (including offsetting time of use demand charges).

Residential installations are usually setup to maximise the total output, and often the positioning is constrained by the geometry of the roof. Residential solar installers are really in a race to the bottom.

One up and coming trend which might have a significant impact on this is for residential retail tariffs to be directly linked, at 30min resolution, to the wholesale energy market prices.

Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#124

Post by eigen » Sun, Apr 25, 2021, 12:29 AM UTC

koolba wrote: post #78

puranjay wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think researchers underestimated how much solar simply “makes sense” to the average person. Once the price is reasonable enough, people are very easily able to latch onto the idea of using what they already know and feel - the sun’s heat. Whenever I mention the solar panels in my parents house, the first question is always about the price. When I tell them they will break even in a few years, their next question is…

Where are we at in 2021 for pay off period? Does it vary by region?

definitely varies by region according to cost from local utility and solar efficacy.

- SoCal Edison is $0.23 / kWh. https://www.sce.com/residential/rates/Standard-Residential-R...

- Entergy Arkansas is $0.074 / kWh. https://cdn.entergy-arkansas.com/userfiles/content/price/tar...

Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#125

Post by jdminhbg » Sun, Apr 25, 2021, 12:31 AM UTC

baumy wrote: post #87

edoceo wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

cascadia summers hardly need AC too, it rarely gets over 35c

35 Celsius = 95 Fahrenheit for my fellow yanks. That seems like a pretty extreme line to draw for "when do I need AC". I don't know about you, but the indoor temperature above which I start wanting AC is around 72-75F, or ~23C. Lots of the PNW gets over that for much of the summer. It didn't used to be this way, but I've wanted AC in Seattle for at least a few weeks a year, sometimes as much as 6 - 8 weeks, since 201…

It can really depend on how much air circulation you can get. In a high rise, you will need AC, but if you’re in a house you can easily manage with open windows and ideally a fan in your roof that can pull air up and in. There are very few days even in Portland where the temps don’t fall into comfortable as soon as the sun sets.

Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#126

Post by irrational » Sun, Apr 25, 2021, 12:34 AM UTC

makomk wrote: post #36

irrational wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't even need a decent climate. I live in Portland Oregon where it is cloudy for 9 months out of the year. In Portland, anything we generate beyond what we can use is fed back into the grid and given to us as a credit. We generate enough solar power credits that we don't pay anything for electricity year round other than a $12 monthly fee to be tied into the grid.

If they're crediting you for that energy at anything close to the retail electricity rate you're effectively getting a really generous subsidy. Because solar is so cheap but only produces electricity sometimes and at pretty much the same time everywhere in the region, the actual cost of electricity when your solar panels are producing heavily and feeding back into the grid is much, much lower than when they're not pr…

Our system generates about 10 MWh per year (10 million watts of electricity). Our house isn't that big (1800 sq feet) and we have all LED lights and the highest energy saving appliances. We don't use anywhere near that many watts in a year. Our surplus credits easily cover our energy costs during Winter.

Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#127

Post by irrational » Sun, Apr 25, 2021, 12:39 AM UTC

edoceo wrote: post #79

Spooky23 wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Peak solar production is in the summer. Peak electricity demand is driven by AC, primarily when it’s hot... in the summer.

cascadia summers hardly need AC too, it rarely gets over 35c

That's not true. At least not where I live in the Portland Metro Area. Mid July - early September is pretty much constantly 35+C.

Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#128

Post by irrational » Sun, Apr 25, 2021, 12:41 AM UTC

vostok wrote: post #73

irrational wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't even need a decent climate. I live in Portland Oregon where it is cloudy for 9 months out of the year. In Portland, anything we generate beyond what we can use is fed back into the grid and given to us as a credit. We generate enough solar power credits that we don't pay anything for electricity year round other than a $12 monthly fee to be tied into the grid.

What is the ratio of solar panel area to floor area for your home?

The panels cover less than half the roof. The house is a 25x50 foot rectangle. So... Maybe 15 feet x 40 feet of panels?

Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#129

Post by irrational » Sun, Apr 25, 2021, 12:44 AM UTC

graton wrote: post #74

irrational wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't even need a decent climate. I live in Portland Oregon where it is cloudy for 9 months out of the year. In Portland, anything we generate beyond what we can use is fed back into the grid and given to us as a credit. We generate enough solar power credits that we don't pay anything for electricity year round other than a $12 monthly fee to be tied into the grid.

What is your expected payback time on the investment of solar? It seems like in Oregon it will take a long time with the amount of sunlight and the relatively cheap energy costs.

At the time we had them installed, both the federal government and Oregon had very generous subsidies.

We do have a loan to pay off the balance not covered by those subsidies, but the monthly payment on the loan is about $40 cheaper per month than our electric bill was prior to having them installed. So, even with the interest on the loan, we are paying significantly less for our monthly electric usage. Once the panels are paid off, our bill will just be $12/month.

Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#130

Post by irrational » Sun, Apr 25, 2021, 12:45 AM UTC

rootusrootus wrote: post #66

irrational wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't even need a decent climate. I live in Portland Oregon where it is cloudy for 9 months out of the year. In Portland, anything we generate beyond what we can use is fed back into the grid and given to us as a credit. We generate enough solar power credits that we don't pay anything for electricity year round other than a $12 monthly fee to be tied into the grid.

I still can't make the numbers work for me, when I try, it seems like I'm always better off keeping my money in stocks and paying PGE to build more renewable generation.

I responded to someone else, but my response also fits here:

At the time we had them installed, both the federal government and Oregon had very generous subsidies.

We do have a loan to pay off the balance not covered by those subsidies, but the monthly payment on the loan is about $40 cheaper per month than our electric bill was prior to having them installed. So, even with the interest on the loan, we are paying significantly less for our monthly electric usage. Once the panels are paid off, our bill will just be $12/month.