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Apple’s M1 Positioning Mocks the Entire x86 Business Model

extremetech.com

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Re: Apple’s M1 Positioning Mocks the Entire x86 Business Model

#11

Post by agogdog »

phendrenad2 wrote: post #2

I think Apple will keep selling x86 Macs forever. For heavy-duty workstation workloads, M1 just doesn't cut it.

It seems odd to think that their first attempt at this, which largely consists of small consumer-level devices with little to no active cooling, is the best they're going to do.

Not to mention that they've already been dominating mobile SOC performance for half a decade as well.

There's no indication that they couldn't take on the pro market. They've clearly got the talent in place. It's likely that the market size is a bigger factor than capability.

Re: Apple’s M1 Positioning Mocks the Entire x86 Business Model

#12

Post by pfranz »

danaris wrote: post #3
phendrenad2 wrote: post #2

I think Apple will keep selling x86 Macs forever. For heavy-duty workstation workloads, M1 just doesn't cut it.

...And you think there'll never be an M2? Or M1X, or whatever branding Apple decides to put on their 32/64/128/???-core version that supports terabytes of RAM?

I think the open question about the Mac Pro is the expandability. The trash can Mac Pro didn't do well and they went back with something with expansion slots. Is it worth it to Apple to build out and support everything necessary on the M1 platform for one low-margin line of computers? We'll find out in the next year.

Re: Apple’s M1 Positioning Mocks the Entire x86 Business Model

#13

Post by outside1234 »

x86 is dead - first in consumer, then in cloud.

It is hard to see to me how this ends any other way. The creative class (us) will quickly have largely all ARM computers within 4 years.

Its not hard to see from there how software will be even more optimized for ARM variants than x86 and that the scale of both mobile and consumer computing will push x86 out of the datacenter slowly as old software that relies on x86 is retired over the next decade.

People won't want to develop on x86 and deploy to ARM. ARM is more power efficient which is important in the data center too. We already scale by the core in the cloud, so why not just heap a few more cheap cores on if we need more to match x86 (which right now looks like we might not).

Tell me how I am wrong.

Re: Apple’s M1 Positioning Mocks the Entire x86 Business Model

#14

Post by kalleboo »

pfranz wrote: post #12
danaris wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

...And you think there'll never be an M2? Or M1X, or whatever branding Apple decides to put on their 32/64/128/???-core version that supports terabytes of RAM?

I think the open question about the Mac Pro is the expandability. The trash can Mac Pro didn't do well and they went back with something with expansion slots. Is it worth it to Apple to build out and support everything necessary on the M1 platform for one low-margin line of computers? We'll find out in the next year.

Even the 27" iMac has a 128 GB RAM SKU, so they're going to need to build a chip supporting external RAM regardless. External PCIe support already exists thanks to thunderbolt. So the architecture will be there, it'll just be a question of how expensive it is to scale up.

Re: Apple’s M1 Positioning Mocks the Entire x86 Business Model

#15

Post by monkmartinez »

You get an M1 with the new iPad Pro as well! I hadn't thought of the situation as the article presents. When shown in that light, it made me pause to reflect. The M1 doesn't make sense when its in every darn product. The only differentiator is screen size, RAM, and OS?

I will admit that I switched to Thinkpad and Win10 about two years ago when I had to return my butterfly for the 5th time. I am not looking back either. If anything, I am more focused on AMD Ryzen and Nvidia 30 series chips in MSI, Lenovo Legion and Asus offerings. There is nothing I can't do with one of those machines. Going Apple is a backward move for me as I like to program, design in CAD, play steam VR, and run blender sims. Can't do any of those well with Apple hardware.

Re: Apple’s M1 Positioning Mocks the Entire x86 Business Model

#16

Post by asddubs »

outside1234 wrote: post #13

x86 is dead - first in consumer, then in cloud. It is hard to see to me how this ends any other way. The creative class (us) will quickly have largely all ARM computers within 4 years. Its not hard to see from there how software will be even more optimized for ARM variants than x86 and that the scale of both mobile and consumer computing will push x86 out of the datacenter slowly as old software that relies on x86 is…

a lot of people still rely on windows. maybe if microsoft gets a better emulator going, but I imagine with the amount of legacy they support that's a lot more challenging than for apple who are much more trigger happy when it comes to imposing changes on devs.

i think it'll definitely happen, especially with the web browser increasingly taking on the role of the operating system, but 4 years seems a little optimistic, even with your qualification of that statement

Re: Apple’s M1 Positioning Mocks the Entire x86 Business Model

#17

Post by diebeforei485 »

phendrenad2 wrote: post #2

I think Apple will keep selling x86 Macs forever. For heavy-duty workstation workloads, M1 just doesn't cut it.

I will grant that the Mac Pro will be one of the last to transition, but I don't think it will stay on x86 forever. It may receive a spec bump at most.

Re: Apple’s M1 Positioning Mocks the Entire x86 Business Model

#18

Post by crooked-v »

monkmartinez wrote: post #15

You get an M1 with the new iPad Pro as well! I hadn't thought of the situation as the article presents. When shown in that light, it made me pause to reflect. The M1 doesn't make sense when its in every darn product. The only differentiator is screen size, RAM, and OS? I will admit that I switched to Thinkpad and Win10 about two years ago when I had to return my butterfly for the 5th time. I am not looking back eithe…

> The M1 doesn't make sense when its in every darn product. The only differentiator is screen size, RAM, and OS?

They've only replaced the lower tier of Macbooks and iMacs with the current M1 board, which suggests to me that they're working on a variant with more CPU and GPU cores that will go into the higher tiers of those machines.

Re: Apple’s M1 Positioning Mocks the Entire x86 Business Model

#19

Post by chao- »

outside1234 wrote: post #13

x86 is dead - first in consumer, then in cloud. It is hard to see to me how this ends any other way. The creative class (us) will quickly have largely all ARM computers within 4 years. Its not hard to see from there how software will be even more optimized for ARM variants than x86 and that the scale of both mobile and consumer computing will push x86 out of the datacenter slowly as old software that relies on x86 is…

I agree with you in general, but disagree on the time scale. Particularly:

>The creative class (us) will quickly have largely all ARM computers within 4 years.

I think good options might exist in 4 years, but still possess trade-offs, where legacy x86-64 platforms still have their place. This could be something as niche as maturity of IOMMU implementations in x86 workstations, but stack up a bunch of niches and I find it hard to see "largely all" in four years. Fifty-fifty in four years, "largely all" in ten for "the creative class". Then there is a long tail of industries may end up legacy-bound to x86 for decades to come.

Nothing is guaranteed. If starting in 2022 we were to see another 3-year performance plateau, ala 2016-2019, then anyone who bought into an mid- or high-end x86 platform today may not feel compelled to upgrade in just four years. Even if the ARM options exist, it might not be a compelling enough gap in four years' time. I'm not saying that a plateau is likely (competitive landscape suggests the opposite), but I don't have a crystal ball, so I won't discount it either.

Again I want to emphasize that I mostly agree, but I wouldn't bet any money on sweeping changes on such an aggressive timeline.

Re: Apple’s M1 Positioning Mocks the Entire x86 Business Model

#20

Post by monkmartinez »

outside1234 wrote: post #13

x86 is dead - first in consumer, then in cloud. It is hard to see to me how this ends any other way. The creative class (us) will quickly have largely all ARM computers within 4 years. Its not hard to see from there how software will be even more optimized for ARM variants than x86 and that the scale of both mobile and consumer computing will push x86 out of the datacenter slowly as old software that relies on x86 is…

Creative class is a lot more than programmers. Look at boutique system integrators like Puget Systems... do you see Apple/ARM Hardware? Heck no you don't! These guys sell hardware to a LOT of the companies that comprise the credits in movie production, game production, laboratories, university science departments, ML researchers, big energy, and soooooo much more.

These guys are not rewriting their software stack for thin chassis, thermal limited, and non-repairable hardware. Raytheon doesn't buy Apple/ARM hardware for their simulations, design and development. Does Boeing, Airbus, Ford or Caterpillar run on Apple/ARM hardware? Are these companies just chomping at the bit to ditch their legacy stacks? I don't think so.

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