Live data from Hacker News

Small cities in America’s Mountain West are booming

economist.com

511–520 of 592 posts

Re: Small cities in America’s Mountain West are booming

#511
post #465

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There's another market mechanism for addressing probabalistic risks, which is to prepare in advance And that means that someone has to pay the costs of doing that. In a free market economy, the people who do the preparing in advance are called "speculators", and they are rewarded or penalized by standard market mechanisms according to how well they prepare. Those standard market mechanisms include being able to cha…

Speculation is one mechanism. Risk assessment (actuarial, engineering, policy, financial) is another. The insurance industry generally is a vehicle for manifesting dispersed or time-variant risks in a predictable fashion, enabling both proper accounting and (as discussed in my earlier comment) management. Speculation alone cannot do that, though it is also a component of the risk sector. (My somewhat unorthodox view…

> The insurance industry...

Yes, good point, this needs to be included as well as speculation.

Re: Small cities in America’s Mountain West are booming

#512
post #486

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What would a small city not have to do that big city would? Or do you mean a small town. Also, what hobbies would have to be given up?

I would say a lack of buffer capacity from fewer options for a given thing is huge. I've lived in small cities and currently live in a huge one. In a small city, yes, you might have one of most of your hobbies represented. But maybe there is literally only one Indian restaurant, only one golf course, only one movie theater, only one bar, only one car dealership, only one grocery store, etc. If that one thing sucks, y…

It sounds like you are talking about small towns not small cities? All the small cities I know of have multiple options for the amenities you described.

Re: Small cities in America’s Mountain West are booming

#513
post #436

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Being sold on the idea of using machines and chemical inputs for everything is the reason most farmers can't make ends meet. There are other paradigms of agriculture that are much more efficient; unfortunately farmers are bending over backwards to feed the folks in the city who want very specific things, and don't care about the consequences.

No, most farmers can't make ends meet because food is a commodity, because it benefits from economies of scale, and because their competition is highly optimized mega-farms with large warchests. Without the machines and chemical inputs, roughly half of the world's population would starve in a few months. They significantly increase yields, and reduce required labour, at the cost of... Problems that future people will…

Certain cultivars of fruits and vegetables are commodities; there are others that aren't, until the market for them grows beyond a certain size. Look at the price history for Honeycrisp apples for an example. Farmers choose to grow commodity cultivars because they're easier to sell in standardized markets. Of course, you could also sell in un-standardized markets, which is how a lot of producers pay their bills without growing on thousands of acres.

If we tried to grow crops in the mainstream agricultural style, but just subtracted machines and pesticides, maybe half the world's population would starve. If the places people lived were integrated with diversified, guilded orchard silvopasture, there would be a surplus of food without machines or pesticides, those people would just have to go pick it themselves.

People obviously don't just want cheap food, given the success of Whole Foods.

The culture war comes in when people act like there's only one way of farming, and one way of integrating farming and the rest of society. Y'all are firing the first shots, don't be surprised when people shoot back.

Re: Small cities in America’s Mountain West are booming

#514

There seems to be a lot of negativity in the comments so far. Is this not the dream that is often touted on hacker news? Work at a FAANG and "retire" somewhere more affordable? I'm personally doing just this. I was lucky enough to land a good job out of college, buy a house in a desired area, and see it appreciate in the last 10 years. This increase plus the birth of my kids left me wondering if there wasn't a better…

Whatever "FAANG" is...

Re: Small cities in America’s Mountain West are booming

#515

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lived in South Florida for a while, this is exactly how it is. Also those "small mountain towns" are deeply conservative and intolerant, if you are white you are in luck, but I don't think they are thrilled to see an influx of non-white folks coming to their town, same with LGBTQ+ people. Those places fit a certain type of people but definitely not everybody that have the money to move there.

I couldn't agree more. I was born in the US to Asian Indian parents. We lived in a small town in the southern US and dealt with a lot of racist crap. I went to college in a big city and while racism still exists the majority do not have racist views and are more accepting of people that do not look like them. I've travelled to 47 states and I am most scared when I am in a small town in the mountain west. Burns, Orego…

I live in a pretty backwoods part of Washington and even as a white but liberal looking person I get that to a much lesser extent. I can't imagine what you've had to deal with.

Re: Small cities in America’s Mountain West are booming

#516

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"I'll never understand anti-gentrifiers." I think the main point is being forced out of your life-long home due to increased costs or taxes. Or the destruction of the local cultures/customs through change in local government policies. If you want an extreme example, you can look at the way that cult in Oregon took over a county/town in the 80s or 90s. Nothing legally wrong with it (the population segment with the hig…

The key is assimilation. If you move into a place with the goal of becoming one of the community and understanding and blending into the local culture and economy, people will be a lot more accepting. If you expect everyone to get out of your way, expect them to fight back.

> The key is assimilation.

Agreed, but it goes both ways. "We welcome your money, but please keep your opinions to yourself", isn't a great way to assimilate new migrants. Also, see top comment by Mark Watson.

Re: Small cities in America’s Mountain West are booming

#517

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honestly, no. Just because you have a hammer does not mean that every problem is a nail. Complete zoning and policy failure is a uniquely California problem. Nobody has a structural, and likely unconstitutional inequity in taxation that California does. Some rando Bay Area suburb being more expensive than Manhattan is not the same problem.

It’s a United States problem.

Not really. I live in a nice 4BR urban house that’s about $100-150/sqft, that isn’t in the Montana wildnerness or something.

I used to commute to Manhattan a few times a month.

Even in a modern sprawl shitshow like the DC or Boston Metro area, it’s way cheaper and easier to get housing than many California locales.

End of the day, there’s just a shit ton of money combined with insane policy decisions in California. It’s a inspiring, puzzling and disturbing place, all at the same time.

Re: Small cities in America’s Mountain West are booming

#518
post #451

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The very, very easy way to fix that is to build enough housing. Places don't suck because a lot of people live there, they suck for lots of reasons that are orthogonal to the population.

That’s very subjective, my definition of suckiness definitely factors in population density.

I don't think it's subjective at all. There are cities that are clean and safe and well run, and you might not want to live there because they have a lot of people, but that doesn't make the city bad. I think your preference to live away from people is subjective, and that's fine, but the rule can't be that you get to live right where you want and no one else can move. Either people can move or they can't. I presume you don't live in the neighborhood you grew up in?

Re: Small cities in America’s Mountain West are booming

#519

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're seeing negativity because it's getting harder and harder to deny that this "dream" involves the locals getting screwed when tech monopoly money turns their local economy upside down. Sure the guy who had the foresight to start a brewery wins but everyone else loses. You know what the end game of this looks like? It looks like Vail CO, Cape Cod MA, coastal Long Island and CT, the Hamptons, wealthy retirement ar…

Last year I moved from a top 3 city to a small mountain town in Colorado. In my experience, your hostility is extremely common in small towns that have big seasonal influxes. I continue to be amazed by the overt disdain long-time locals have for second home owners and relatively newer full-time residents. The one constant is: "Everything was great until shortly after I relocated here and you people moved in." A week…

You're right that a lot of the entitled screaming is ridiculous, but I think you're missing some of the very real problems that come with an influx of new money and (especially) second homes.

I grew up in a tourist area, and though I'm one of the ones who left for the Big City I keep in touch. I'll give you a few examples that I think are illustrative.

Immediately after college, a buddy and I shared an apartment in a nice building on a nice street. We both made decent money working in touristy restaurants, as did the three girls our age who lived next door (and, I think, the inhabitants of the other two units in the building, though we didn't have much to do with them: they were older, and had kids, so not much in common with us at the time). During the two years that we lived there, the family home directly next door sold. It was kind of sad, because a nice older couple lived there -- we watered their plants for them once, and the wife baked us an ENORMOUS batch of cookies to say thanks -- but the husband died, and the old lady moved away to live with one of her daughters somewhere else. Anyway, the house was bought by someone as a second home / investment property; during the next year it was used for exactly three days (for a really loud and obnoxious party, but whatever). We snuck in through the backyard to use the Jacuzzi a few times, but even then I can remember thinking that this place turning into an effectively vacant property was a bad sign.

Fast forward twenty-something years, and even more of the "family" homes on that street have become second home / investment properties. The four-unit apartment that we lived in is now exclusively rented out on AirBnB, displacing the service-industry families and twenty-somethings that lived there before.

Just about everyone who actually works in that town now commutes from miles and miles away, and rush-hour traffic -- on rural roads -- is terrible.

The displacement goes much further up the income scale that you'd think, too. I've kept my dentist there, partly out of sentiment: the dentist who previously owned the practice had looked after my teeth since I was, like, eight years old; my regular hygienist has been cleaning my teeth since I was about fifteen. I cleaned their office for them when I was in high school, and they still give me an "employee discount" on fluoride treatments or whatever, so going there gives me all kinds of good small-town feelings. A decade or so ago someone I went to school with partnered with the original dentist, and then bought out the practice when the old dentist retired. We've talked a few times, and I don't think it's gone quite as well as she hoped. For one thing, she has to pay her hygienists and dental assistants a premium, to keep them willing to make the fifty+ mile commutes most of them have to make, since local housing is out of reach. She expected that, though. What I think she didn't quite expect is that she'd have so many fewer patients than the practice used to have. Partly that may be churn that comes with the old dentist retiring and someone new taking over, but also it's because the year-round population has declined, and second-homers and AirBnB-ers aren't looking for dentists in their vacation town. My friend had expected to pay off the loan for the practice and then buy a home in town before her kids got to school age. It's now 8-ish years since we talked about that, and she's still making a ~70 mile commute each way.

Build more homes? Yeah: that does need to happen (I vote the straight YIMBY ticket in the city I live in, so I totally get that argument), but ... rural small-town charm drives the tourist industry around there. Build too much and you kill the goose that lays the golden egg.

It's a really multi-layered problem, that I don't think has a simple solution. That said, there are a few relatively easy things that I think would help a great deal:

1) Raise property taxes (how much? I don't know: double, triple, quintuple, octuple? What's a bigger adjective than that? It should be by whatever multiple it takes) on any property that's not a primary residence for someone. At some level it becomes worth it to rent out your investment or AirBnB property to someone who'll actually live in it.

2) Restore the train line into town (and probably electrify it, too), then run regular commuter trains throughout the day. The right-of-way still exists, and is currently used for touristy sight-seeing and dining trains. Those can still run, but they're terribly inefficient as the only users of the rails. The goal should be to get workers cheaply to work, and tourists off the roads.

3) Charge a congestion fee to anyone who still chooses to drive. I'd make it $300 for a permit that's good for a year: that hits the tourists really hard (and helps subsidize the train), but should be relatively affordable for anyone who works or lives in town.

I dunno. I'm not really arguing with you, but I do want to make the point that the economics of tourist towns are weird, and at least some of the locals' resentment is driven less by entitlement than by economic forces, and enforced changes, that really are hurting them.

Re: Small cities in America’s Mountain West are booming

#520

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For decades people from all over the country, many of these small towns moved to places like NY, Chicago, SF etc. and the respective suburbs in search for better jobs, opportunity etc. It didn't seem like it was a big concern then to anyone that the locals in these cities could be negatively affected by higher rents, home prices etc. Why is it different when the reverse happens? If its ok for a young person to leave…

>If its ok for a young person to leave their hometown, move to a city and call it home to make a better life without thinking about the locals, then it must be ok for a person with a small family living in a city to move to a smaller town and call it home to make a better life for his/her family. The reason that theses two scenarios are not equivalent is so obvious I'm wondering whether or not I'm misinterpreting it.

Confused here as well. I don't see how these aren't equivalent.
Post reply on HN