Unusual Stock Trading by Whales in US Congress • Hacker News Board

Re: Unusual Stock Trading by Whales in US Congress

#291

Post by spoonjim » Thu, Apr 15, 2021, 7:49 PM UTC

frankfrankfrank wrote: post #236

slowmovintarget wrote: post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A significant percentage of random average people have no practical understanding of economics, and no ability to think of consequences to policy. Granted, neither do a significant percentage of the currently serving congress if current policy is anything to go by.

Regardless of whether one may like the initial selection criteria or not, what you describe is precisely why the country (USA) was supposed to be led by land owning free white men. The assumption being that people that fit that criteria, plausibly possessed a requisite initial selection criteria set of skills and knowledge that would constitute the pool of best qualified people to run a government in the common inter…

The destruction to the Founder's political vision didn't come from expanding the franchise, it came direct democracy. The idea was explicitly that the average voter was completely unqualified to choose the President, and that the only question the voter would be asked is: "Who in your town should make decisions for you?" That person would go to your state legislature, which would vote for your state's electors, who would go and deliberatively decide the President. With the 17th Amendment and binding primary elections we threw out that wisdom.

Re: Unusual Stock Trading by Whales in US Congress

#292

Post by voldacar » Thu, Apr 15, 2021, 7:49 PM UTC

slowmovintarget wrote: post #191

nitrogen wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We only need to find 0.00013% of the US population Maybe we should use sortition then instead of elections? What could be more democratic than random average people (meeting some criteria) taking a turn at the wheel?

A significant percentage of random average people have no practical understanding of economics, and no ability to think of consequences to policy. Granted, neither do a significant percentage of the currently serving congress if current policy is anything to go by.

> A significant percentage of random average people have no practical understanding of economics, and no ability to think of consequences to policy.

unfortunately, this is also true of our elected officials

Re: Unusual Stock Trading by Whales in US Congress

#293

Post by BurningFrog » Thu, Apr 15, 2021, 7:49 PM UTC

akudha wrote: post #153

sakopov wrote: post #15

> For example, Pelosi in Dec 22 was against more stimulus. Her husband buys deep ITM TSLA and AAPL calls that day. December 23rd, she is suddenly for stimulus again, with those same companies ralling 5%, giving her an instant +30 return. > Congressman Gottheimer is absolutely an incredible options trader. He’s been selling calls at peaks on $MSFT all 2021, & seemingly buying back the contracts on dips. This in blocks…

Isn't Pelosi worth like 100 million or something? How much money is enough for these people? :( How quickly are these trades made public? Maybe we should just copy the congress people's trades and make some profit ourselves :P

Any sum is fine as long as you got it honestly.

The problem with Pelosi and others is that the money comes from abusing their power, and is in effect taken from other investors.

Re: Unusual Stock Trading by Whales in US Congress

#294

Post by icedchai » Thu, Apr 15, 2021, 7:51 PM UTC

cameronh90 wrote: post #259

lend000 wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why should they be held under less scrutiny than CEO's? They typically have to clear their stock sales with the SEC months in advance.

Also as a regular fintech worker, I have to get internal approval from my employer for anything I do. Why can government representatives trade willy nilly without any oversight?

Do you actually "have to"? How would they know if you don't? Basically, is it an honor system?

Re: Unusual Stock Trading by Whales in US Congress

#295

Post by coltsfan » Thu, Apr 15, 2021, 7:51 PM UTC

jkepler wrote: post #273

throwawaygh wrote: post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why not just prohibit members of Congress of owning stock? They are some of the most powerful people in the world. Why is it so much to ask that a Senator or especially Representative serving in the most powerful legislative body in the world just take a cash position for 2-6 years?

I think they're too aware that with real dollar inflation probably running at least 10% per year (per Michael Saylor), they'd loose too much value for them to consent to holding only cash for 2 to 6 years. For every $100K they had, they'd end up holding something near $81K down to $53K in real purchasing power... and that's assuming they were content to only stay in power one term.

that's exactly the point. it's almost a game for rich people to pump up their legacies or because they're just bored. you want them gone. When they are gone, there will be plenty of people left that choose never to buy another stock again for the rest of their lives. No law, just a personal code. Because the influence and power obviously last after you leave office. Monks and samurai can exist. Then so can a congressional Bushido. You just have to stop voting for people who think about their stocks all day while sitting at meetings.

Re: Unusual Stock Trading by Whales in US Congress

#296

Post by philsnow » Thu, Apr 15, 2021, 7:51 PM UTC

burkaman wrote: post #286

eloff wrote: post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> How much money is enough for these people? :( What kind of attitude is that? If you have savings, one seeks a return on said savings by investing them. That's perfectly normal and rational behavior at all wealth levels.

It is not rational once you have enough money for you and those you care about to be infinitely comfortable for the rest of your lives. Say you have $100,000 in the bank, and you want to spend $10,000. What's the best use of that money? For a normal self-interested person, a rational use would be to invest in whatever will give the largest return, in order to have enough money for living expenses, retirement, childre…

> At this level of wealth, just making more money has no positive impact on anybody, even yourself.

except that having capital makes it easier to gain more capital, so you could very well end up with more impact by aggressively investing for a few years before donating.

Re: Unusual Stock Trading by Whales in US Congress

#297

Post by SilasX » Thu, Apr 15, 2021, 7:53 PM UTC

ABeeSea wrote: post #264

SilasX wrote: post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But then you'd own the option so you'd benefit from the volatility and can quickly cash out, right?

Yes, you cash out the options when the IV spikes when swings up.

So, back to the original question: wouldn't OTM options make more sense in their position?

Re: Unusual Stock Trading by Whales in US Congress

#298

Post by femiagbabiaka » Thu, Apr 15, 2021, 7:54 PM UTC

tomcam wrote: post #263

femiagbabiaka wrote: post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oligarchy in the U.S. is giving my mother country (Nigeria) a run for its money.

Don't be silly. The U.S. is infinitely more corrupt than Nigeria. Forgive me, but there's just no comparison.

hah! I am sympathetic -- the U.S. corruption is definitely more impactful to the world, and on a much greater scale. But it is also more covert and _usually_ doesn't creep into the level of person to person bribery in everyday interactions (IME).

Re: Unusual Stock Trading by Whales in US Congress

#299

Post by dysrend » Thu, Apr 15, 2021, 7:56 PM UTC

gowld wrote: post #235

eloff wrote: post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> How much money is enough for these people? :( What kind of attitude is that? If you have savings, one seeks a return on said savings by investing them. That's perfectly normal and rational behavior at all wealth levels.

"normal and rational" is different from "ethical or moral". "All wealth levels" are not the same.

It fails to comply in either case.

Re: Unusual Stock Trading by Whales in US Congress

#300

Post by finexplained » Thu, Apr 15, 2021, 7:56 PM UTC

rsync wrote: post #288

finexplained wrote: post #17

Members of congress should only be allowed to invest in SPY/VOO, VTI, and a few other broad ETFs, long only, no options.

"... long only ..." Can we please stop perpetuating the myth that short selling, or holding short positions, is some kind of exotic or shady or villainous activity ? It's not. Short selling, and the holding of short positions, is value neutral and is part of a healthy properly functioning marketplace. I don't know what politicians should or should not be doing but a long vs. short distinction is silly.

My apologies, it wasn't my intent to imply that myth. I actually completely agree with your position on short selling. At the time of writing it just seemed a bit weird to me, and possibly an incorrect alignment of interests, for a US politician to take a short position in SPY...