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Is Russia going to war with Ukraine and other questions

bbc.com

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Re: Is Russia going to war with Ukraine and other questions

#91

Post by Glavnokoman »

fighterpilot wrote: post #72
Glavnokoman wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you really want to know just go there and ask around. But make sure you do not use your google account or log in to github while there.

I figured someone like Pew would've run a poll there but perhaps it's too dangerous to do so?

Any poll is subject to influences, cheating, biases, etc, etc... Just spend a week there during not so high season, so you meet mostly locals, and speak to some random people. It takes some effort probably but in my believe it is the only way to make at least a little informed opinion on any topic.

Re: Is Russia going to war with Ukraine and other questions

#92

Post by sergeykish »

shashurup wrote: post #84
coldcode wrote: post #38

If you are a Russian "president" and have domestic troubles like a crappy economy and lots of Covid, always remember the 34th rule of acquisition "War is good for business".

What lots of covid??? Is there some new source of information I'm not aware of?

> The country’s official coronavirus death toll is 102,649. But at least 300,000 more people died last year during the pandemic than were reported in Russia’s most widely cited official statistics.

362,302 Total Excess Deaths

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/10/world/europe/covid-russia...

Re: Is Russia going to war with Ukraine and other questions

#93

Post by sergeykish »

Glavnokoman wrote: post #42
drran wrote: post #23

After 7 years of war with Ukraine, Russians are preparing to war with Ukraine.

Goood! Now you noticed that the article is at least partially a bullshit. But I wonder what conclusions you'll make?

I live in Ukraine. After 7 years of proxy war RF prepares for open war.

There are plenty of facts. RF controls occupied territories, "republic" leaders claimed many times it would be impossible without RF supply, mercenaries and army. They've written books on the matter. It is not a secret.

Re: Is Russia going to war with Ukraine and other questions

#94

Post by sergeykish »

ceilingcorner wrote: post #48
dandanua wrote: post #22

I can't understand how some smart people still sympathize Russia and say it acts only for defense. Russia has made the first annexation in Europe since WW2 and effectively control another part of Ukraine. Right now it looks like Russian logic is that every free person in the world is a potential threat to Russia. Because threat is anything that you don't control.

It's more tricky than it seems. For example, do you support the right of people to self-determine? Should Scotland be allowed to secede from the UK and join the EU? While elections in Crimea were clearly not "fair" and the method by which it "joined" Russia was nebulous, the peninsula is absolutely Russian-speaking. It's pretty likely that the population would choose to join Russia, if they'd been given the chance. N…

I am Russian-speaking. But also Ukrainian, English and a bit German. Is this a reason to occupy my country by GB?

Please stop spreading lies. Scotland self determination is peaceful. Crimea had its parliament. No one cared to vote until occupation and brainwashing by RF controlled propaganda spreading awful lies about Ukraine.

And there are no fair elections in Russia.

Re: Is Russia going to war with Ukraine and other questions

#95

Post by sergeykish »

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #64
anoonmoose wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does "what the people of Crimea wanted" change whether or not Russia annexed the territory against the wishes of the current owners of the territory and against international law that Russia claims to respect?

It suggests that Russia isn't planning to annex "every free person in the world" as the parent comment suggested. They're taking blatant, aggressive advantage of the Ukrainian Revolution to expand their power and influence, and that's undoubtedly a bad thing to do, but I don't think it indicates any substantial risk to other countries in the region.

Transnistria in Moldova (1991), South Ossetia in Georgia (2008), Crimea and Donbass in Ukraine (2014). They've embraced USSR, claim to return territories, its representatives claims to bomb West. No worries?

Re: Is Russia going to war with Ukraine and other questions

#96

Post by sergeykish »

ceilingcorner wrote: post #74
willeh wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are plenty of regions in Europe that have similar histories and few countries in Europe are really that old, even states with long histories have not had constitutional orders lasting more than 50 years. Finland was a part of Sweden for 600 years, Denmark part of Norway for an equal amount time. Neither of those facts in any way reduces the Finnish or Norwegian people's right to self determination. Waging aggre…

I don't really know why you're arguing with me. I'm just trying to explain the situation. With your focus on self-determination: if Ukraine allowed specific regions to hold referendums, it is very likely that many regions would opt to join Russia. Then what? As I have said numerous times now: it is complicated.

Please stop spreading lies. Nothing complicated.

Only fools wants to Russia what it become today. State without justice and fair elections, incredibly poor population, no allies.

They've claimed they are "brothers". We were not ready to fight in 2014, not ready to kill "brothers". Now we know who they are. This war affected everyone in Ukraine. Every citizen have seen struggles and poverty caused by war. We know what become of Donetsk and Luhansk. They are going to destroy other cities too. That's not brothers, that's worst enemies.

My mother language in Russian. Now I hate Russia.

Re: Is Russia going to war with Ukraine and other questions

#97

Post by sergeykish »

room505 wrote: post #24

I highly recommend this Lawfare podcast episode that talks about the Ukraine issue. Alex Vindman is literally an expert on the topic. The Lawfare Podcast: Alex Vindman on the Escalation in Ukraine https://www.lawfareblog.com/lawfare-podcast-alex-vindman-esc...

Insurgence would have been crashed if not RF army [1]. RF military responsible for passenger plane [2]. I am from Ukraine, our army protects us from invasion. We've seen "Russian peace" in occupied territories, that's slow death.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Ukrainian_War

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_17

Re: Is Russia going to war with Ukraine and other questions

#98

Post by sergeykish »

_xnmw wrote: post #9

Canadian here on the ground in Ukraine, on the Eastern side (Kharkiv). The situation is pretty serious as everyone’s talking about war, and I personally am stocking up on non-perishable food items. The prevailing opinion seems to be that Russia is just flexing muscles, but I personally believe a full scale invasion is in the works. The idea that Putin is trying to extract concessions doesn’t make sense to me, because…

Hello from Kharkiv, article is largely outdated.

Russia invasion consolidated Ukrainians. Only NATO could bring peace to my country. Crimea with Russia returns to its native state, land without much water. That was a reason Crimea was handled to Ukraine, on its balance, it was not "present".

Putin is trying to distract from internal problems — rising prices, peaceful meetings breakdown, his Palace [1], dying in prison opposition leader Navalny. And on top of it Baiden called Putin a killer. He is playing "strong leader" again. Full scale invasion is higly possible, but only because RF government is insane.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ipAnwilMncI

Re: Is Russia going to war with Ukraine and other questions

#99

Post by sergeykish »

fighterpilot wrote: post #72
Glavnokoman wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you really want to know just go there and ask around. But make sure you do not use your google account or log in to github while there.

I figured someone like Pew would've run a poll there but perhaps it's too dangerous to do so?

Russia is information autocracy state. TV controlled by state for more than 20 years. Average Russian knows all sort of weird things, basically everything that helps Putin. West is evil, Putin is the only choice, Ukraine is fascist state, Russian is superior culture.

Liberals are better, yet their culture is based on occupation, it brings joy. Annexation of Crimea have raised Putin rating to 87%.

Re: Is Russia going to war with Ukraine and other questions

#100

Post by shashurup »

sergeykish wrote: post #92
shashurup wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What lots of covid??? Is there some new source of information I'm not aware of?

> The country’s official coronavirus death toll is 102,649. But at least 300,000 more people died last year during the pandemic than were reported in Russia’s most widely cited official statistics. 362,302 Total Excess Deaths https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/10/world/europe/covid-russia...

That is interesting. Very reasonable approach. The only problem is that they failed to provide the link to the materials they used in the study. And I don't see death rate statistics for 2020, only for 2019 and before. Publication calendar states that the nearset publication is expected on May, 15.
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