Live data from Hacker News

China is betting that the West is in irreversible decline

economist.com

201–210 of 349 posts

Re: China is betting that the West is in irreversible decline

#201
Money = debt.

As a society builds its wealth, it builds debt.

Japan went through this. They built tremendous levels of debt. Private debt is 200% and their government debt is 250%. Just before their debt problem got out of control their deficit spending made the world think Japan was going to take over the world. https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/JapanTakesOverTh...

The thing is... Japan in the late 80s didnt seem like they had a debt problem because they always do this in a 'debt to gdp' but if your spending also increases gdp. It hides the problem until its a disaster.

Now it's china...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-debt-idUSKC...

China knows they have this problem.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/26/new-signs-show-that-china-is...

That's the problem. China is taking over the world etc but its from 2 factors.

1. They've built their debt to unsustainable levels like Japan.

2. Special economic zones migrating their country to capitalism.

Why is China so intent on taking control of Taiwan and Hong Kong for example? They need them to pay their debt problem.

Also notice, more and more products are made in Vietnam and other countries.

China also has a bit of a slave labour problem. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinjiang_internment_camps#Forc...

It's not so much a genocide but rather slave labour, the chinese debt problem is so bad that they are only maintaining the status quo because of their slave labour.

When does it change? When does it break? May never change. The USSR fell and got rid of their gulags. china may never fall.

Re: China is betting that the West is in irreversible decline

#202
post #165

In the long term, the West (Europe at first) went from at best a not particularly interesting place compared to, say, China to the global hegemon because 1. it became much better at war than the others [0] 2. it became much richer than the others [1] Much has been written about how Western values and/or institutions and/or any other causes led to 1 and/or 2 and the interplay between 1 and 2. The warfare advantage is…

>Note that the West used to be a much higher percentage of the world population in the past. I wonder about this quite a lot. This is obviously mainly due to the boom in developed world esp China, but do you have any opinions about 'fixing' the fertility rate in the West? Is it futile when the developing world incl China will always have higher rates?

> This is obviously mainly due to the boom in developed world esp China

Europe (and the "West" aka where Europe sent its surplus citizens) went through its fertility transition [0] earlier than the rest of the world. Hence it increased its relative size as it experienced a high fertility / low death period, and decreased its relative size after it went to a low fertility / low death while part of the rest of the world went into their high fertility / low death phase.

So we can probably expect currently high population growth to transition to the low fertility / low death endgame. China is already well past it.

As far as I know, no country went back to a high fertility / low death scenario, though countries stabilized at various level of low fertility.

Most Western countries have institutions that rely on population growth (high debt that would lead to enormous debt per capita if the number of people decreases, unmaintained infrastructure, pay-as-you-go pensions...). So they will either have to fix their fertility rate in a dramatic way, massively reform many of the core institutions of society, or have high immigration & handle it well.

[0] https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdf/10.1257/jel.49.3.589

Re: China is betting that the West is in irreversible decline

#203
post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How many Mainland Chinese do you actually know? Have you talked to them? My in-laws are all Mainland Chinese. They have access to safe and good tap water, either back in their home town literally in the mountains or in a big city like Wuhan. Air quality is not great, I'll give you that. But it's also not the worst, at least not in every measure. E.g. many big cities in China had lower NO2 levels than other big cities…

> they've seen past the values of the West Interesting. What would you consider are the values of the West? And, in your opinion, what are the values of the Chinese society? And don't you think there are overlaps and so, which one? No retorical questions, I am truly interesting in your answer.

Or maybe I should put it another way: they've seen past the priorities of values of the West.

I think that, as civilisations, we all aspire to mostly the same values. We just have very different priorities. For the Chinese, it's economic progress over freedom. (In fact, they are mostly free to say whatever they want as long as they don't try to rally and secede or topple the government. As a point of anecdatum, I discuss politics with my brother-in-law over WeChat. We don't always agree with the official narrative. Neither of us has been censored or arrested.)

Re: China is betting that the West is in irreversible decline

#204
post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem here is the definition of the term "progressive". If you take it to mean "forward-looking" then yes, being progressive is a sure strategy for success in the long run, even if such success may come at a price in the short term. This, however, is not what most current "progressive" ideologies do, instead of looking forward they often look backward in time in search for grievances in need of redress. This, i…

Identify politics has been on the rise for a long time. The right heavily contribute to identity politics. See: openly racist GQP leaders, transgender bathroom ban, mexican "caravans" conveniently appearing in the news around election time, satanic panic, homophobia, muslim ban, "Kung flu". In no way can you place the blame for the rise of identity politics squarely on progressives. I get the feeling that most people…

I do not "blame" the rise of identity politics on anyone, I merely point out that it has been taken up by many people who consider themselves to be "progressive" and that it, in combination with the adoption of critical theory - specifically the practice of "deconstruction" - leads to a witches brew of regressive and destructive ideologies.

Re: China is betting that the West is in irreversible decline

#205
post #67

West in decline? This was predicted back in '18 when Spengler published his famous book, "The Decline of the West". Oh wait, that was 19 18. The "west" faces a relative decline, which is something to celebrate.* And I can hardly blame the Chinese government for taking an assertive position or for capitalizing on weaknesses in their perceived adversaries. But China faces some structural problems just at the time when…

I mean he was right (in that there was a decline of the West, or Europe in particular - I am not familiar with the content of his book beyond that). The West went from conquering & dominating almost every place of the planet despite being but a small minority of its population to losing the vast majority of their conquests. The tech difference between say Paris, 1918 & Shenzhen, 1918 was much higher than today - in fact I would say Shenzhen is ahead.

Re: China is betting that the West is in irreversible decline

#206
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What indications are you seeing of this?

I, personally am ambivalent on this subject. I see many signs that support the narrative of a west in decline while also seeing signs that it still has plenty of innovation and strength still left in it. The center of technological innovation still resides here in the west. In the west the industrial and technological prowess are demonstrated through its corporations. For a recent example, look at the speed of develo…

I don’t think national rivalries and all that will be around much longer. Borders are getting increasingly meaningless. People just want the freedom to make a good honest living anywhere on earth. Anything that gets in the way is doomed to fail. I believe this will happen in my lifetime.

Re: China is betting that the West is in irreversible decline

#207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did you entirely forget about the 60s? Domestic unrest and geopolitical power aren't that tightly connected. People have been saying the West is "in decline" for decades and it's almost always by people looking at chance in society as being some kind of negative force. The "social change misinterpreted as cultural decline" is basically a meme at this point.

Hitler believed that America was in such moral decline that the country would be unable to unify and run any kind of large-scale war effort in Europe. The Nazis had a particular derision for jazz music, viewing it as a way for "undesirables" to corrupt and destroy society. Again, internal division and cultural change had little bearing on America's ability to move vast amounts of equipment and manpower to Europe when…

Why does this sound familiar, as if I’ve heard it echoed many times by freedom loving people.

Re: China is betting that the West is in irreversible decline

#208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The West is on the rise technologically and in decline socially. But I wouldn't be too quick to call the decline irreversible . The democracy is still in a good shape despite some challenges. The West went through many crises. This is not the first one, and not the last one. So far, nothing indicates that the social crisis is irreversible and the West won't be able to bounce back.

> The democracy is still in a good shape despite some challenges. What political pathways do you see for correcting both our two-party system and increased gerrymandering? It seems to me like those two factors are large contributors to our increasing political polarization, and fixing them would require the political parties to behave irrationally from a game theory perspective.

Easy: give the individual states more responsibility. This has already begun. There is really no reason why California and Alabama need to have 100% of the same laws on highly contentious issues.

It's not called the United States for nothing.

Re: China is betting that the West is in irreversible decline

#209
post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US's antiquated and ossified political system with its focus on minoritarianism and gridlock-as-a-design-objective are a major cause. As long as it's possible for ~30% of the country to drag everything to a halt, not a lot is going to get done. The push to restrict voting rights only amplifies that, but the real problem is that the US system is not built to produce a "mandate to lead", it is designed with an exce…

There are a ton of issues with your thesis. - The US is a impregnable continent with oceans on both sides. Poland is a flat plain surrounded by historical enemies. Congress isn't the Sejm and a single veto doesn't halt legislation. No one is going to invade the US and significant legislation still gets passed regularly. Poland also didn't have the entire apolitical infrastructure of the CIA, FBI, NSA, state governmen…

- The physical isolation of the US is one of the reasons it's endured as long as it has, yes. We would be in a lot more trouble if we were physically accessible to enemies, of course. However, not all problems are man-made, climate change is an example of a problem that the US cannot dodge simply because it's geographically isolated. The healthcare crisis, COVID, worsening inequality, etc are all internal problems that the US is unable to address because of its ossified political system. We're not going to be able to ignore those problems forever just because we live on our own continent, we need a functioning government regardless.

Moreover, it is of course trivially true that no two historical circumstances are ever exactly the same. That doesn't mean we discard all historical parallels and lessons from history. That's a very trivial and shortsighted view to the lessons of history.

Obviously the US is not Poland circa 1500. But it demonstrates the problems that can be created from systems with extreme amounts of checks-and-balances. From there we can ask the question "are the US's systems of checks and balances extreme enough that they're causing problems?" and I think the answer is clearly "yes".

- Misinformation has always existed, just like bombs existed before the atom bomb. That doesn't mean the battlefield hasn't significantly changed from 30 years ago. Thanks to the work of Facebook, Google, and others, it is now possible to directly target individuals with the forms of misinformation they are most susceptible to. Just as that has revolutionized advertising, it has revolutionized information warfare, and the regulatory framework has not adapted to deal with that (partially because of liberal absolutism, and partially because of the generally ossified nature of the political system which prevents anything from getting done).

Moreover, back when the government was more functional, misinformation was recognized as a problem and addressed. Truth in broadcasting laws being an example. And as those regulations have been eroded (both legally and structurally with the transition to unregulated forms of broadcast over privately owned carriers) the problems have gotten worse. So yes, it's always been a problem, to the extent that we recognized that and deployed solutions to fix it, and as those solutions have been eroded the problem has come back and gotten worse.

- "Culture" is another trite excuse for systemic problems. It is not the overall cause of the problems. If your system of government and rights framework requires humans to be angels then it is not a good one - this is the same argument as "communism would work if we only found perfect humans". Well, humans aren't perfect, if the US government can't function with imperfect humans then that's a design problem.

But yes, generally the US does have a cultural problem with selfishness and lack of community outlook that doesn't help any of this. People refusing to get the COVID shot while they go around society and (stochastically) kill others and breed new mutations of the virus is just the most recent example, generally you have things like the "temporarily embarrassed millionaire" and the focus on employers being able to use their religion to impinge on their employees' lives that are fairly uniquely american. We would be much better off with some community-oriented ideals to balance out that individualism.

The overall problem is structural, but the cultural problems certainly don't help.

Re: China is betting that the West is in irreversible decline

#210
post #51

> They say some Chinese officials are convinced that the eu will soon drop its Xinjiang-related sanctions, because Europe cannot recover from the pandemic without Chinese growth. Anyone else think they are grossly underestimating the EU?

Most definitely.
Post reply on HN