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Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

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521–530 of 662 posts

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#521

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hi, Yuri makes a few mistakes in this. 1) Chimeric viruses (copy and paste) are what scientists make in the lab. They take a piece of one virus and paste it into the genome of another, en masse. This is very different from what SARS-2 is, which is more accurately described as a "mosaic" (lots of little changes all over the genome). This is much much more difficult (if not very close to impossible in the case of SARS-…

Deigin has said explicitly elsewhere that if SARS-CoV-2 arose from a lab accident, he believes it arose from manipulation of a novel, unpublished virus collected by the WIV from nature. This makes any arguments based on distance from existing, published viruses irrelevant. RaTG13 was such a virus (collected 2013, published post-pandemic), but it's very unlikely to be the ancestor for the reasons that you note. No one…

The RdRp of RaTG13 was published years before the pandemic. The full genome wasn't published, but enough of it was published to identify the virus.

SARS-CoV-2, by contrast, is not among any of the sequences published by the WIV over the years.

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#522

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Roll a die representing all possible human-bat virus interactions in the world. How many of those rolls land next door to a lab researching these?

Hi there's actually quite a bit of reason to believe the zoonotic transmission didn't actually happen in Wuhan, based on the available genetic and epidemiological evidence. See here: https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/covid19_did...

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Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#523

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel like people are doing a poor job distinguishing between "engineered" and "leaked." There is, from my understanding, reasonable evidence to conclude the virus was not engineered from the perspective of "we took genes from one virus and moved them to this virus," but there's no evidence disproving the idea that it was the result of gain of function research. My personal feeling is that these statements are true:…

There is a rather detailed description of circumstantial evidence that leans towards the gain of function statement: https://yurideigin.medium.com/lab-made-cov2-genealogy-throug...

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Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#524

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unfortunately, avoiding a new Cold War is something that would take equal effort from both sides. If just one side is eager to wage such a battle, it will happen unless the other side acquiesces at every turn.

Maybe. But annihilating isn’t really in anyone’s interests.

Actually annihilating, no. But a Cold War isn't that - it's a constant threat of such. Which can be very useful to manipulate public opinion - and there are plenty of sociopaths in politics who deem the risks worth the reward.

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#525
post #326

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1.3. you cannot take any virus known in nature (like Ratg-13 for example) and "cook" it for long enough or in any specific way to make it look like SARS-CoV-2. You can't do it in the time we've been able to handle viruses like this or modify them in the ways we can. You'd have needed to start a few decades ago, have tools that we've only just invented, and a huge number of willing test subjects. I cover this in extre…

> you cannot take any virus known in nature That is such a straw man. I seriously doubt anyone, much less a signatory to the recent open letter (many with experience and knowledge far beyond yours) would have claimed they can take ANY virus and transform it to ANY OTHER virus. Your green handle just lost any respect I might have extended to it.

I feel their intention was to say that there is no known virus in nature that could be transformed to specifically SARS-CoV-2?

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#526

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>We can't just focus on random mutation, we have to think about fixation. Because virus populations don't just evolve in one concerted direction. They evolve /outwards/ in a cloud. It's not simply A to B, it's A to B then back to A then over to C then to D, then back to B, then over to A again, then finally settled on C. A random walk. Fixation relies on selection, which is entirely different in a laboratory environm…

>Fixation relies on selection, which is entirely different in a laboratory environment than in a population with immune systems. This is actually extremely controversial. There's a great deal of evidence that random walks are more important than selection in fixation events. Does selection play a role? Yes! Definitely! But the evidence is mounting and almost at consensus that random chance is actually what dictates m…

Sorry I accidentally linked to SH01 in here instead of the korean strain. here's the correct one: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/nuccore/MT039890

And here also is an Australian strain from the beginning of the pandemic that does not have cggcgg: https://ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/nuccore/MT007544

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#527

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually I do. I have A) direct relationships with the people who study viral biodefense at USAMRIID and serve on the government panels, and they were very surprised to hear about these cables. They didn't find the authors credible at all. One is an entrepreneur and the other a career diplomat. And for all those who don't have a PhD in the subject or know the people who know people, B) it's detailed closely in this w…

>The U.S. delegation was *led* by Jamison Fouss, the consule general in Wuhan, and Rick Switzer, the embassy’s counselor of environment, science, technology and health. The first article lists the “leaders” of the delegation only. Diplomatic business always needs diplomatic leaders, so it doesn’t tell us anything of the Doctors who were with them. Reading the rest of it, there’s a very convincing case that China is h…

It should also be noted that the cables don't say that the lab has any unsafe practices. They only say that as of the time of writing (before the lab opened), there were not yet enough trained technicians to run the lab at full capacity. They asked the US government to continue its program that trained Chinese lab technicians at a top US national lab.

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#528

Whatever actually happened, people have a pretty hard time with random chance. They need someone to blame, and a good reason as to why something bad can't happen to them. If the reason is "it just happened randomly", that's uncomfortable. There's nothing you can do to fix the problem, you just have to accept that every 100 years there's a 0.3% probability that you'll die from some random incurable disease. But if the…

> There's nothing you can do to fix the problem...

Unless it was a lab cock up in which case you can

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#529
post #113

The most likely candidate for this virus, and most future viruses that produce pandemics, will be environmental destruction and animal agriculture. We know there are novel viruses out there, too many to count. Even if this started in a lab the most likely reason is that scientists need to study the viruses that we will be coming into contact with as we commit, as a species, to more environmental destruction. I'm real…

>The most likely candidate for this virus, and most future viruses that produce pandemics, will be environmental destruction...

I don't actually get that. How does destroying the environment cause this sort of virus?

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#530
I think the following is much better paper on this topic. It discusses how the furin cleavage site occurs in lab and why ace2 binding could have emerged and why the virus was well adapted to ferrets right from the start. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7435492/
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