Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out • Hacker News Board

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#471

Post by fighterpilot » Sat, Apr 10, 2021, 5:24 AM UTC

tripletao wrote: post #443

Bukhmanizer wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My personal feelings are that all 3 are possible, but approximately 0.0001% of people will actually consider the likelihood of each one, but rather, most will choose whichever one is most convenient and comfortable to believe in. Of course as an Asian person, whatever people believe in will have a direct impact on me. I remember after 9/11, the amount of awful things that were said and done to the Sikh population in…

If SARS-CoV-2 emerged due to the WIV's research activities, then it was potentially with the knowledge and funding of the American government, via the EcoHealth Alliance. Racism is always stupid, but in this case it's particularly so. This absolutely shouldn't be China vs. USA, and it's deeply unfortunate that the Trump administration's early, characteristically unsupported rhetoric made it so. The WIV's safety was p…

Anti-Chinese racism is stupid and toxic, yes, but you're missing the point.

People here generally aren't blaming China because that's where COVID-19 originated. That would be stupid.

No, they're blaming the CCP for covering it up in the early days, which allowed it to spread and become the global pandemic which it became. Big difference.

It's not China's fault that COVID originated there (lab leak or otherwise). It is their fault for covering up the scale of the problem and thereby helping it spread.

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#472

Post by redis_mlc » Sat, Apr 10, 2021, 5:31 AM UTC

anonymousisme wrote: post #260

Bukhmanizer wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My personal feelings are that all 3 are possible, but approximately 0.0001% of people will actually consider the likelihood of each one, but rather, most will choose whichever one is most convenient and comfortable to believe in. Of course as an Asian person, whatever people believe in will have a direct impact on me. I remember after 9/11, the amount of awful things that were said and done to the Sikh population in…

As a white American in Beijing during the 9/11 attacks, I experienced lots of not-so-surprising behavior from my Chinese hosts. Many Chinese felt that America deserved what they got. Tensions were still high from the "Hainan Island Incident" only a few months earlier. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hainan_Island_incident

> Many Chinese felt that America deserved what they got.

I don't see how their opinion matters, since they're misinformed and orchestrated by the CCP.

The Hainan incident was caused by a Chinese fighter pilot running into a US surveillance plane. The former is agile, the latter is not, so that's the fault of the fighter.

Also, a plane in distress doesn't need permission to land. For the CCP to make a big deal out of that when there's no other runway available shows their true nature - evil and authoritarian.

The CCP has been at war with the US since the 1950s over ideology. If the US was not their enemy, the CCP would just pick another country.

I've noticed that otherwise intelligent people seem to place significance in "man in the street" conversations with people who live in totalitarian countries and have no power.

There's a phrase for that, useful idiot:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Useful_idiot

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#473

Post by jrockway » Sat, Apr 10, 2021, 5:33 AM UTC

Whatever actually happened, people have a pretty hard time with random chance. They need someone to blame, and a good reason as to why something bad can't happen to them. If the reason is "it just happened randomly", that's uncomfortable. There's nothing you can do to fix the problem, you just have to accept that every 100 years there's a 0.3% probability that you'll die from some random incurable disease. But if the reason is "some scientist was careless", then they can put that scientist in prison and society is saved from all future pandemics, and they can stop worrying. Of course, that won't actually fix the problem, but it doesn't need to, it just needs to make people feel better.

Especially for claims like this, they're nearly impossible to conclusively disprove, so people will cling to it regardless of whether or not it's true. You'll see this come up again and again forever.

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#474

Post by katbyte » Sat, Apr 10, 2021, 5:36 AM UTC

Stevvo wrote: post #462

BurningFrog wrote: post #366

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If it looks like a coverup, Occam says it is a coverup. The Chinese authorities are not stupid. They know how bad it looks to not allow investigation. Which means they think the result of a free investigation would look even worse.

I disagree. The CCP's modus operandi is self preservation through suppression of information. To those perpetrating the cover up what actually happened is irrelevant. The CCP is never transparent in matters that could make them look bad. From their perspective allowing an open international investigation would make them appear guilty regardless of the results because it would be unprecedented.

... so if an open investigation and free access would look better then a cover up then by your logic they would allow it leading to the conclusion reality looks worse?

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#475

Post by fighterpilot » Sat, Apr 10, 2021, 5:37 AM UTC

jeduehr wrote: post #167

COGlory wrote: post #106

The evidence is circumstantial, but there has yet to be any evidence ruling it out. To be clear, the lab leak hypothesis is always possible. Things can always leak out of labs, let's not kid ourselves. Some things (going by memory here) that seem to support the hypothesis: 1) Major point of differentiation for this virus is that compared to it's closest known relatives, it has acquired a furin site (eukaryotic protei…

Furin cleavage sites very similar if not largely identical to this one have also been found in nature, and have been generated in nature in very short spans of time (on the order of a few decades, which is what is suspected to have happened with SARS-CoV-2). I describe the evidence in detail in this detailed longform post I wrote on reddit a few months back: Hi, I have a PhD in virology focused on emerging viruses, a…

You seem confident that it wasn't a lab leak on the basis that Chinese scientists have no reason to lie and that the (alleged) first case wasn't a scientist.

What about the CCPs long track record of cover ups and lies instills you with confidence that there isn't a top-down effort to coverup a possible lab leak?

If the CCP wants a cover up, then the scientists under their employ will probably lie. Very few would be brave enough to be publicly truthful in such a situation.

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#476

Post by katbyte » Sat, Apr 10, 2021, 5:41 AM UTC

eightysixfour wrote: post #201

ricksunny wrote: post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> we can afford to wait and let experts do their jobs We can emphatically not expect the experts to do their job. Those cited as having the most expertise (virologists who undertake gain-of-function research, symbolically under the auspices of HHS’ toothless P3CO regulation framework) have the most to lose from a finding that the pandemic’s source was a lab leak. They lose all the grants and public financial support,…

Scientists are human, and they will make mistakes, the benefit is that there are many of them with different incentives. The "Blocked Virology" twitter account references a lot of previous lab escapes to say that lab escapes are possible, this is good evidence against your point - how do you think we know about the previous escapes? It wasn't a random group of technically-minded individuals, it was experts that track…

There has never been a lab leak leading to a global pandemic and mass deaths, I don’t think you can compare now to anything other then maybe the Spanish flu

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#477

Post by zdkl » Sat, Apr 10, 2021, 5:46 AM UTC

katbyte wrote: post #474

Stevvo wrote: post #462

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I disagree. The CCP's modus operandi is self preservation through suppression of information. To those perpetrating the cover up what actually happened is irrelevant. The CCP is never transparent in matters that could make them look bad. From their perspective allowing an open international investigation would make them appear guilty regardless of the results because it would be unprecedented.

... so if an open investigation and free access would look better then a cover up then by your logic they would allow it leading to the conclusion reality looks worse?

No, the point is there is almost no way the party would sanction an external investigation, regardless of the actual situation.

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#478

Post by tripletao » Sat, Apr 10, 2021, 5:46 AM UTC

fighterpilot wrote: post #471

tripletao wrote: post #443

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If SARS-CoV-2 emerged due to the WIV's research activities, then it was potentially with the knowledge and funding of the American government, via the EcoHealth Alliance. Racism is always stupid, but in this case it's particularly so. This absolutely shouldn't be China vs. USA, and it's deeply unfortunate that the Trump administration's early, characteristically unsupported rhetoric made it so. The WIV's safety was p…

Anti-Chinese racism is stupid and toxic, yes, but you're missing the point. People here generally aren't blaming China because that's where COVID-19 originated. That would be stupid. No, they're blaming the CCP for covering it up in the early days, which allowed it to spread and become the global pandemic which it became. Big difference. It's not China's fault that COVID originated there (lab leak or otherwise). It i…

The article is about the earliest origins of SARS-CoV-2, whether that arose from the activities of the WIV or naturally. My comment is as well.

Once the pandemic emerged, the CCP's response was certainly terrible in many well-known ways (e.g., their attempt to suppress Yan Limeng's initial alarm, and the disappearance of multiple citizen journalists from Wuhan), though it's impossible to know whether a better response could have suppressed its worldwide spread. That's a separate question from those earliest origins, though.

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#479

Post by spfzero » Sat, Apr 10, 2021, 5:50 AM UTC

refenestrator wrote: post #303

arcticbull wrote: post #297

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes it sure would be irresponsible to ask questions about the... (1) BSL-3 lab doing bat coronavirus research... (2) on gain-of-function projects... (3) one block away from the epicenter of a coronavirus pandemic with bat ties... (4) that nobody's being allowed into... (5) when they have a history of coronavirus lab escapes. I'm not saying we know this is what happened. I'm saying it's not a far-fetched position and…

The write-up specified that they're a noisy minority who disagree with the consensus. In the subheading, after the heading 'scientists say..'. Media! It's still 100% speculation. The question to ask is, would there be this level of suggestive speculation if it wasn't America's newest top rival?

Yes, if millions of people had died. There would, and justifiably so.

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#480

Post by throwaway4good » Sat, Apr 10, 2021, 5:53 AM UTC

loveistheanswer wrote: post #240

throwaway4good wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are missing the important bit: The lab leak would have to be covered up by the Chinese authorities and the WHO would some how have had to be in on it. Read the section in the WHO report on COVID19 and listen to the reputable international scientist that actually went and visited the lab and interviewed the people who worked there. https://www.who.int/health-topics/coronavirus/origins-of-the...

>The lab leak would have to be covered up by the Chinese authorities and the WHO would some how have had to be in on it. Indeed. There's another important bit that you seem to be missing. Did you know that Peter Daszak, one of the "reputable international scientists" you speak of who helped investigate and author that report was himself the project lead for the US funded gain of function research at the WIV? Who woul…

There were around 20 scientist who went to Wuhan with WHO. From all over the world, with actual relevant qualifications, specialised enough in virology to form a meaningful opinion on this subject.

Today they are all being harrassed by anonymous internet users because their conclusion didn't follow some conspiratorial paranoid anti-China story. What does that tell you?

There are people out there who happily make up stuff to fit a certain story. And people who will happily repeat it.

You can bury your head in ignorance and let yourself be manipulated by the likes of Steve Bannon or you can choose to listen to people, who actually have qualifications in the field and who have a meaningful reputation to loose.