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Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

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Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#251

Post by EMM_386 »

COGlory wrote: post #193
jeduehr wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Furin cleavage sites very similar if not largely identical to this one have also been found in nature, and have been generated in nature in very short spans of time (on the order of a few decades, which is what is suspected to have happened with SARS-CoV-2). I describe the evidence in detail in this detailed longform post I wrote on reddit a few months back: Hi, I have a PhD in virology focused on emerging viruses, a…

I read through your post and it was incomplete and hand wavy, although that makes sense because it was written for Reddit. The bias was also obvious, and remarkably unscientific in how you approached the "problems" in a deterministic manner. You cherry picked examples (for instance, saying we can detect Cas9 mutations) that make no conclusive point (for example, there are a variety of ways to add a furin site to a ge…

I agree with you that I am uncomfortable with the "hand-waviness" of the OP's response. If you are a virologist, I would really like your opinion on the science of the following document:

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/bies.2020002...

Like you, I don't enjoy when facts I post are de-railed without actually addressing any of them. It happens a lot, but I try my best to not let them be the last word.

There is plenty of factual information out there that makes an accidental lab-leak hypothesis strong.

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#252

Post by ChemSpider »

jeduehr wrote: post #217
rPlayer6554 wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm sorry man, but wouldn't you be able to just reply directly if you feel inclined to disagree with the parent. I'm not saying HN is entitled to your opinion but it feels a little lazy and disrespectful to the parent to say "you're wrong" then drop a link off site to a massive general summary of the situation in order to respond to a few specific points. Especially since point 3 has a source from a decently reputabl…

Hi, I actually ended up responding below to point 3 in particular but I also respond to it in my original post. Very few, if any of these arguments are novel. The reason you will find extremely few people with actual credentials in the science we're discussing in these discussions is that working scientists don't have the time or will to get into these debates with people who wouldn't have the faintest idea how to ac…

Alina Chan seems at least equally qualified and disagrees:

https://twitter.com/Ayjchan/status/1374108473571557377

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#253

Post by loveistheanswer »

jeduehr wrote: post #236
loveistheanswer wrote: post #222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which part of #1 is false? 1.1 Gain of function research primarily uses samples collected from nature 1.2 and seeks to stimulate their evolution in as natural a way as possible to learn how viruses evolve in nature. 1.3 If such viruses were to escape the lab, they would appear "natural"

1.3. you cannot take any virus known in nature (like Ratg-13 for example) and "cook" it for long enough or in any specific way to make it look like SARS-CoV-2. You can't do it in the time we've been able to handle viruses like this or modify them in the ways we can. You'd have needed to start a few decades ago, have tools that we've only just invented, and a huge number of willing test subjects. I cover this in extre…

Thank you for the detailed response. As a layperson, these specifics are over my head.

Assuming everything you say is true, that still would not rule out a lab leak of a virus collected from nature, would it?

>You can't do it in the time we've been able to handle viruses like this or modify them in the ways we can. You'd have needed to start a few decades ago, have tools that we've only just invented, and a huge number of willing test subjects.

Does this imply that covid19 has been circulating among humans for a very long time?

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#254

Post by refenestrator »

arcticbull wrote: post #127
loveistheanswer wrote: post #23

Judging by the comments in this thread, it seems a lot of people are still unaware that: 1. Gain of function research primarily uses samples collected from nature, and seeks to stimulate their evolution in as natural a way as possible to learn how viruses evolve in nature. If such viruses were to escape the lab, they would appear "natural" 2. It's not xenophobic for people from the US to suggest the possibility of a…

It's also not xenophobic to suggest the possibility of a lab leak because lab leaks happen regardless of who's doing the research; even at BSL-4 facilities, mistakes are made. And also because there were two separate SARS-CoV-1 leaks/outbreaks from Chinese labs which the PRC admitted to. [1] [1] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC403836/

The fact that this particular theory reaches the front page of hacker news every week, despite zero evidence besides the existence of a lab.. hey, we're just asking questions, here, right?

Frankly, it would be irresponsible NOT to provacatively suggest this thing we have no evidence of, repeatedly.

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#255

Post by [deleted] »

jeduehr wrote: post #209
ricksunny wrote: post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> we can afford to wait and let experts do their jobs We can emphatically not expect the experts to do their job. Those cited as having the most expertise (virologists who undertake gain-of-function research, symbolically under the auspices of HHS’ toothless P3CO regulation framework) have the most to lose from a finding that the pandemic’s source was a lab leak. They lose all the grants and public financial support,…

Actually a lot of virologists are also critical of GOF. Just look at public health people, epidemiologists. Folks like Andrea Sant, Michael Osterholm, David Topham, etc. These folks criticize GOF all the time, and are a big part of the group that helps write regulations to make Virology research safe. But you know what these same virologists also don't believe? That SARS-COV-2 was cooked up in a lab. That should tell…

[deleted]

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#256

Post by jeduehr »

Banyonite wrote: post #244
jeduehr wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually a lot of virologists are also critical of GOF. Just look at public health people, epidemiologists. Folks like Andrea Sant, Michael Osterholm, David Topham, etc. These folks criticize GOF all the time, and are a big part of the group that helps write regulations to make Virology research safe. But you know what these same virologists also don't believe? That SARS-COV-2 was cooked up in a lab. That should tell…

> That's why when consensus exists about something, you should respect it. There is quite a large consensus about this one. Respecting a consensus is reasonable. That having been said, I would be interested to hear what the virologists to whom you refer think about Ralph Baric's work. Ralph Baric is a very well-known virologist specializing in corona virology. His group synthesized quite a few SARS-CoV variants, a nu…

It's important to understand the distinction between chimeric and mosaic viruses.

Baric makes Chimeras. CoV-2 in comparison to the other closely related viruses in nature, is a mosaic. Lots of little changes all over the genome, not big copy and pastes.

See here for more detail on that distinction: https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/-/fqpbagf

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#257

Post by mistermann »

jeduehr wrote: post #242
mistermann wrote: post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What you wrote here is not wrong, but point number 3 stated: > 3. Lab leaks happen more often than most people realize[1] As I see it, there are two variables involved: - how frequently lab leaks happen (total number of historic leaks - known + unknown) - people's realization / awareness of how often they happen > And now 15 years later, with zero evidence, we're accusing them of covering up the same thing. Regardles…

Re: inspections, Shi Zhengli has been yes. Her government, not so much. I am definitely not a fan of the Chinese government. But the scientists I've met at conferences and the papers I've reviewed from their labs have been of a very high quality. Not saying such people could not commit atrocities or coverups like this. But I do find it personally less likely. That isn't the evidence I rely on most in my personal asse…

Agreed, I've read other plausible claims of ~evidence suggesting the Wuhan origin theory is incorrect.

Generally speaking, I think the whole world would be better off if we aligned our perceptions of our knowledge more closely with its likely true quality: very often, we think we know things, but we are actually just estimating if not outright guessing, and then declaring it to be true. Unfortunately, very few people seem to be comfortable with this idea regardless of their political orientation or education level. But as I see it, it is simply applying the discipline and methodology of science to the real world, so it's kind of weird how unpopular it is with educated people who are otherwise enthusiastic promoters of Scientific Thinking.

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#258

Post by twobitshifter »

jeduehr wrote: post #229
twobitshifter wrote: post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is just an ad hominem. You do not know who inspected the facility, their qualifications, and what research went into the cable.

Actually I do. I have A) direct relationships with the people who study viral biodefense at USAMRIID and serve on the government panels, and they were very surprised to hear about these cables. They didn't find the authors credible at all. One is an entrepreneur and the other a career diplomat. And for all those who don't have a PhD in the subject or know the people who know people, B) it's detailed closely in this w…

>The U.S. delegation was *led* by Jamison Fouss, the consule general in Wuhan, and Rick Switzer, the embassy’s counselor of environment, science, technology and health.

The first article lists the “leaders” of the delegation only. Diplomatic business always needs diplomatic leaders, so it doesn’t tell us anything of the Doctors who were with them. Reading the rest of it, there’s a very convincing case that China is hiding something. The doctors that have “disappeared” are especially troubling as well as the information lockdown they imposed.

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#259

Post by tinus_hn »

loveistheanswer wrote: post #23

Judging by the comments in this thread, it seems a lot of people are still unaware that: 1. Gain of function research primarily uses samples collected from nature, and seeks to stimulate their evolution in as natural a way as possible to learn how viruses evolve in nature. If such viruses were to escape the lab, they would appear "natural" 2. It's not xenophobic for people from the US to suggest the possibility of a…

It’s because they have been trained to think: corona leaked from a lab is tin foil hat conspiracy theory.

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#260

Post by anonymousisme »

Bukhmanizer wrote: post #151
eightysixfour wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel like people are doing a poor job distinguishing between "engineered" and "leaked." There is, from my understanding, reasonable evidence to conclude the virus was not engineered from the perspective of "we took genes from one virus and moved them to this virus," but there's no evidence disproving the idea that it was the result of gain of function research. My personal feeling is that these statements are true:…

My personal feelings are that all 3 are possible, but approximately 0.0001% of people will actually consider the likelihood of each one, but rather, most will choose whichever one is most convenient and comfortable to believe in. Of course as an Asian person, whatever people believe in will have a direct impact on me. I remember after 9/11, the amount of awful things that were said and done to the Sikh population in…

As a white American in Beijing during the 9/11 attacks, I experienced lots of not-so-surprising behavior from my Chinese hosts. Many Chinese felt that America deserved what they got. Tensions were still high from the "Hainan Island Incident" only a few months earlier. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hainan_Island_incident
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