Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

No, it's impossible for them to categorically show that it wasn't. However, they could make an extremely strong case if they completely documented all ongoing research activities in the lab before the beginning of the pandemic. This would involve total disclosure of the activity of every researcher, open access to all materials and the sequencing of all viral samples and cultures.

It is not feasible to do this probably. The WIV even claims to have completely consumed all biosamples related to RaTG13, which is the most-closely-related known virus to SARS-CoV-2. Supporting such an investigation is completely counter to their interests (speaking both of the institute and the CCP).

The overwhelming evidence is that SARS-CoV-2 emerged completely adapted to humans. This has been confirmed by the amazing lack of initial adaptation to the new human host. We only saw major changes in the spike resulting in a change in phenotype later in 2020. The proximal origins of the spike protein suggest a primate or human host. For this to happen, a natural origin in another species is astronomically improbable. It's the strongest evidence that we'll ever have as to the origins of the virus, and to this biologist it is completely indicative of what happened. We will only know the full truth if people speak out.

I imagined a conspiracy theory (please build a lot of skepticism around this), that Trump asked for "covert ways" to damage china.

The CIA knew about this lab, they worked to cause the leak, maybe it was not done properly, the CIA people were not informed on the science, and they did not really know it would infect the entire world. There is a similar plot in the TV show "The Americans".

I don't believe this theory, but I'm guessing China could easily use this kind of narrative in disinformation campaigns.

My only worry is diplomatic tensions with china. I guess everybody is a little anxious now and wants peace.

That's... Not at all the core argument.

The core argument is actually one of occam's razor. Is such a recombinant /technically/ possible? Yes.

How many new assumptions does it require? A lot. Lots of people who help cover it up, lots of people who get sick and say nothing, lots of samples destroyed. And then also the epidemiological and genetic evidence doesn't support it.

How many new assumptions do you need for the zoonosis theory? Very few. It consists almost entirely of phenomena we know occur in nature, via mechanisms already described and known to occur at a frequent enough time scale to make it not just plausible, but probable.

That's the core argument.

This is probably the biggest database of bat-origin coronaviruses in the world, and we're in the middle of a bat-origin coronavirus pandemic. Even ignoring the question of SARS-CoV-2's origins, shouldn't this be of great scientific interest? (If it isn't, then what was the point of the research in the first place?)

Perhaps I could believe that a small group of virologists would have trouble keeping a website running, and that just by chance they gave up right around when a pandemic likely first entered humans, of the same type of virus that they studied in the same town--coincidences do happen. But now that this is a matter of international importance, do you really believe that no one in China has the technology to make this information available in any form? That seems impossible to me; so why don't they want to?

I appreciate the opportunity to discuss, and I do believe that you're sincerely convinced that the chance that virological research could result in such an accident is negligibly small. With respect, I'd suggest that your attitude seems typical of the profession, and that that's exactly when the worst accidents happen. Engineers are constantly taught that their work may bring catastrophe, and that it's their job to consider and manage every conceivable way that it could. I get the feeling that virologists aren't, perhaps because there are fewer past disasters to point to; though with the 1977 flu pandemic as a warning, that's not a great excuse.

Russia says no danger after blast in smallpox lab

A gas cylinder exploded and prompted a fire in a Siberian research facility which houses samples of smallpox, SARS, Ebola and other potentially deadly viruses. Russian officials said there was no threat of contamination.

https://www.dw.com/en/russia-says-no-danger-after-blast-in-s...