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Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

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Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#441
post #301

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure you can rule out "engineered as you described above." WIV had recently published research on, and had an active grant to perform (at the time of the outbreak), chimeric Coronavirus research, and they were one of the two world leading labs in this. In that research, they were transplanting the spike gene from one virus to the "backbone" of another. You could call this "engineering" or "gain of function" d…

They're viruses from the same family of viruses. "Strongly resembles" is not strong evidence. Which you note by pointing out that this is the exact thing we'd expect from a natural event.

This is older but it shows the BLAST of the two viruses. They're more than the same family. RaTG13 is the closest sequence ever discovered (in open literature) to SARS-CoV-2.

https://yurideigin.medium.com/lab-made-cov2-genealogy-throug...

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#442

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My personal feelings are that all 3 are possible, but approximately 0.0001% of people will actually consider the likelihood of each one, but rather, most will choose whichever one is most convenient and comfortable to believe in. Of course as an Asian person, whatever people believe in will have a direct impact on me. I remember after 9/11, the amount of awful things that were said and done to the Sikh population in…

I assign non-negligible probability to each of them. I don't know. But I hate the stupid racism and hate around it. COVID-19 attacked every country. With the exception of, like, New Zealand (but it affected them as well... had to shut down their borders, etc). These viruses are a threat to all humanity. I just want us to fight them better and help everyone. I think it's super important that we both simultaneously hol…

Unfortunately, avoiding a new Cold War is something that would take equal effort from both sides. If just one side is eager to wage such a battle, it will happen unless the other side acquiesces at every turn.

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#443

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel like people are doing a poor job distinguishing between "engineered" and "leaked." There is, from my understanding, reasonable evidence to conclude the virus was not engineered from the perspective of "we took genes from one virus and moved them to this virus," but there's no evidence disproving the idea that it was the result of gain of function research. My personal feeling is that these statements are true:…

My personal feelings are that all 3 are possible, but approximately 0.0001% of people will actually consider the likelihood of each one, but rather, most will choose whichever one is most convenient and comfortable to believe in. Of course as an Asian person, whatever people believe in will have a direct impact on me. I remember after 9/11, the amount of awful things that were said and done to the Sikh population in…

If SARS-CoV-2 emerged due to the WIV's research activities, then it was potentially with the knowledge and funding of the American government, via the EcoHealth Alliance. Racism is always stupid, but in this case it's particularly so.

This absolutely shouldn't be China vs. USA, and it's deeply unfortunate that the Trump administration's early, characteristically unsupported rhetoric made it so. The WIV's safety was probably below American standards, but probably closer than a wet market is to American agricultural standards. So it's ridiculous to think a lab vs. natural origin makes it "more China's fault". If the CCP is currently covering up a lab accident, then they're probably quite unhappy that they've been "forced" to do so, and wishing in retrospect they'd instead decided a year ago to publicly blame the rogue, American-funded researcher.

Long before the pandemic, this was an obscure academic debate, between virologists who wanted to perform certain risky experiments and others who thought they presented an unacceptable risk:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7097416/

With the possibility (absolutely not proven; but not disproven either) that such an experiment has just killed 2.9M people, that debate takes on a terrible new significance.

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#444
post #406

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes green account, whatever you say.

Hey, Let me know what proof you would want to show I am who I say I am. Thanks

Ad homenim doesn’t really fly for me, even in a positive sense. But thanks.

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#445

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I read through your post and it was incomplete and hand wavy, although that makes sense because it was written for Reddit. The bias was also obvious, and remarkably unscientific in how you approached the "problems" in a deterministic manner. You cherry picked examples (for instance, saying we can detect Cas9 mutations) that make no conclusive point (for example, there are a variety of ways to add a furin site to a ge…

That's interesting, because of the scientists featured in the above article... None of them are virologists. Petrovsky, for instance, if you look at his google scholar, hasn't published a paper in a virology journal in the 10 years that I looked. He's published in some predatory journals, ones I wouldn't be caught dead publishing in. He's also gotten /close/, I guess, by publishing about tuberculosis. But it really i…

From reading some of your comments here and on Reddit: your tone hurts your credibility.

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#446
I did a deep dive on the origin of SARS-CoV-2 last year and was surprised at how much information is readily available to anyone and yet so much of the story is still totally unknown to the vast majority of people.

I'm talking about sources like major scientific journals and mainstream media here. It just takes some work to piece it all together.

The story is actually really fascinating and almost seems like a fictional thriller novel. It actually gave me chills. This is all heavily cited with credible sources, here's the story: https://followtheplot.org/covid19

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#447
It was in all likelihood a lab leak. The WIV in the same city as the intial breakout? This isn’t hard to piece together.

I’m also convinced that the CCP will do everything in their power to deflect blame and claim a natural happenstance. The economic reparations that will be demanded from a faceless China would destroy their emergence.

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#448

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hi, I actually wrote a direct response to this idea in my original post. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1vRbACWf90iBC35xNOwlI5bWcUq0... (Footnote 1) Also, you can literally look around on this exact post and find people who believe that this virus was cooked up in a lab. There were also a lot of people on my original post who believed that. As is often the case: never underestimate the intellectual overconfidence of…

James, I read your post on Reddit back in the day. It was evasive and frankly condescending because you basically argue against something no-one familiar with the science is claiming: that COV is a chimeric virus that is the product of copy-and-paste genetic manipulation rather than directed evolution or gain-of-function research that has resulted in phylogenetic drift against something that was found in the wild --…

Hi I actually discussed the GOF several times in my post and subsequent comments. You can find them here:

-http://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/covid-19_did...

-http://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/covid-19_did...

I also address the statistical models you describe, here:

-https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/covid19_did...

I go into detail about petri dish vs lab animals vs accelerated evolution and how implausible it is.

Re: sampling viruses in the wild this isn't necessarily my area of expertise, I'm a lab guy. But I do know a lil bit about it, re: ebola in bats mostly. Only that it actually takes much longer than you think, and it has to do with our sampling methods. RNA is really really really short lived outside the host, and our sampling methods aren't that good at finding it inside animal secretions, they're optimized for humans and humans want to be sampled. you don't need to squeeze a human to get them to pee in a cup, or spit in one, or hold still to swab them like you do bats. So sampling is much more difficult. And since it's out in the field, the RNA decays more quickly too. Some advances have been made in this but it still is quite difficult.

To give you an idea, here is a paper all about the vastly MASSIVE amount of estimated undiscovered viruses out there (figure 3 in particular): https://www.nature.com/articles/nature22975

I address the state department stuff also: https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/covid19_did...

Re: research mice, the mouse germination time from IVF to F1 (the first useful generation of mice) is about 12-16 weeks. Not that long on the global timescale, but really long in science. You can see a source for this here: http://ko.cwru.edu/info/breeding_strategies_manual.pdf

And that's from Case Western in Ohio, not a Chinese source. It really is that fast.

I'm sorry I'm not framing my arguments in precisely the way you want them, I framed them how I received the arguments out there having discussions in the real world with real skeptics. I then constructed the post to respond to those arguments I had been asked about.

I'm sorry, but that's just the way it is. Take it or leave it.

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#449

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually, CRISPR/Cas is a fantastic example of lamarckian evolution. What I'm trying to say is that it's not pressure into with evolution, but rather, random mutation + purifying selection = evolution of new traits. Organisms can't determine what they need to evolve to. There is no guidance of "evolve to this", but rather - "entirely random evolution maybe I won't die yay" - everything that isn't useful dies. So sayi…

I think you totally get the concepts, but the way you talk about it is strange, hence my time traveler comment :) You understand the nuances better than most. I'm guessing you're self taught? I've never read the origin of species, but I feel like you might have! The points you're making are a given in modern evolutionary theory. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evolutionary_pressure https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adaptat…

I'm just doing a poor job of explaining what I'm trying to say , mainly because I was typing from my phone, and also because it's Friday evening after a long week and I've had a couple beers. And because a lot of this stuff is over my head.

Let me restate my issue with the OP in a clearer way and then I'll get into the rest of the nuance and detail.

OP said:

>there is evolutionary pressure [...] for coronaviruses to follow this path

I interpreted this line as reading: "coronaviruses will likely evolve furin sites because is causing them to". The issue I take with it is that coronaviruses don't know what to evolve to, they simply evolve, and if it works, great. If not, they die. I'm not sure there's a cause beyond random/stochastic factors. Otherwise, it would be Lamarckian. If I were to reword it myself, I'd say "evolution of furin sites will be selected for". The reason I make this distinction is because elsewhere in the thread, I commented that a lab leak is a real hypothesis, and one of the counterarguments of that seems to be that because coronavirus could evolve a furin site without human intervention means that they did evolve a furin site without human intervention, and I dislike the narrative that it was an inevitability. (To make my position clear, I'd give a personal weighting of a natural evolution of Covid as about 85%, and a lab leak at about 14.9999999999%, and a malicious lab leak at about 0.000000000001%. Those numbers could be wildly off. I just get upset when people try to say a lab leak was definitely not possible).

>You understand the nuances better than most. I'm guessing you're self taught? I've never read the origin of species, but I feel like you might have!

I'd prefer to avoid a conversation based on credentials because of recent bad experiences there, but yes, I have read it. However, I was thinking about "The Logic of Chance" by Eugene Koonin, who is fairly well respected in the evolutionary biology field. Particularly, in "The Logic of Chance", he defines Lamarckian evolution as the following:

>Lamarckian inheritance refers to nonrandomly acquired phenotypic changes, particularly those that are directly affected by the use of organs and are accordingly assumed to be adaptive (beneficial for the organism). The controversial French naturalist Jean-Bapteste Lamarck believed that directed changes are inheritable and constitute the basis of evolution

He also goes on to say:

>Lamarck was the author of the first coherent theory of the evolution of life, which he presented in his Philosophie Zoologique; “inheritance of acquired (adaptive) characters” played a key role in this theory.

He makes a good, and much more nuanced argument than I'll attempt to explain here (see "The Logic of chance: The Nature and Origin of Biological Evolution, Chapter 9 for the full argument) that the inability of Lamarckian evolution only applies to the central dogma (DNA -> RNA -> Protein) because the central dogma has no reverse mechanism (no way to transfer information from protein back to DNA). However, this scenario falls apart with the advent of things like proteins that can insert novel DNA into a genome, or reverse-transcriptases.

Specifically regarding CRISPR/Cas, Koonin has this to say: >The mechanism of heredity and genome evolution embodied in the CRISPR-Cas system seems to be bona fide Lamarckian (see Figure 9-2):

>• An environmental cue (a selfish genetic element, such as a virus) is employed to directly modify the genome.

>• The resulting modification (unique, element-specific spacer) directly affects the same cue that caused the modification.

>• The modification is clearly adaptive and is inherited by the progeny of the cell that encountered the selfish element.

He goes on to address your points about losing with disuse, as well:

>The CRISPR-mediated heredity appears to be short-lived: Even closely related bacterial and archaeal genomes do not carry the same inserts. The implication is that, as soon as a bacterium or archaeon ceases to encounter a particular agent (virus), the cognate spacer rapidly deteriorates.

While "Logic of Chance" was written in 2013, if I remember correctly, which was the nascent stages of CRISPR/Cas understanding, my personal experience in biology has proven that to be quite true. We know now that CRISPR spacers are inserted into the beginning of the spacer locus, directly adjacent the leader which is where spacer transcription is initiated, and this apparently serves an evolutionary function of ensuring that the transcription guarantees more transcripts of the most recently encountered viruses.

That said, there are some serious flaws in his thinking. See this rebuttal:

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10539-018-9662-y

As always, in large part, the phenomena is undisputed, and the fact that it breaks the central dogma is...mostly...undisputed, but the actual definition of the term "Lamarckian" is in hot dispute.

(See also Koonin's response to that rebuttal here: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10539-018-9666-7)

I appreciate the thoughtful discussion.

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#450

Every time this comes I ask - "so what?" So again, I ask - even if it's true, so what? It's impossible to conclusively prove, and even if proven what exactly is proven? That an accident occurred? OK, so what? The article attempts to answer this: > The vitriol also obscures a broader imperative, Relman says, which is that uncovering the virus’s origins is crucial to stopping the next pandemic. Threats from both lab ac…

Well, because it would be the biggest industrial accident since Chernobyl.

It would be like not caring which oil rig exploded off the Gulf, spilling untold barrels of crude — not caring about what parts failed, and why.

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