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Eu_sst: 20% probability for large satellite collision

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Re: Eu_sst: 20% probability for large satellite collision

#81

For anybody interested, they missed: https://www.n2yo.com/?s=12443|10820 (Link further in thread.)

We don't know yet. Satellites (especially defunct) don't have active live tracking like ships. Satellite sites show them based on calculated trajectories.

Edit: as of 2021-04-09T20:21:00Z EUSST thinks they missed. https://twitter.com/EU_SST/status/1380601898164744199

Re: Eu_sst: 20% probability for large satellite collision

#82
post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Replace `twitter.com` with `nitter.eu`: https://nitter.eu/EU_SST/status/1380120766071635968

I was pretty excited when I found out about nitter. After some months I realized that every nitter mirror only stays up for a few weeks before it becomes so popular it's throttled most of the time (like nitter.net). Also, it's 17:41 UTC now... the events of this post should be occuring now. Or not occuring.

It's really easy to run a private instance of your own: https://github.com/zedeus/nitter

Mine isn't publicly accessible so never gets throttled.

Re: Eu_sst: 20% probability for large satellite collision

#83

For anybody interested, they missed: https://www.n2yo.com/?s=12443|10820 (Link further in thread.)

We don't know yet. Satellites (especially defunct) don't have active live tracking like ships. Satellite sites show them based on calculated trajectories. Edit: as of 2021-04-09T20:21:00Z EUSST thinks they missed. https://twitter.com/EU_SST/status/1380601898164744199

leolabs' next anticipated contact with SL-8 R/B 12443 is at 21:06UTC https://platform.leolabs.space/catalog/L5136#next-planned-pa...

next anticipated contact with OPS 6182 at 20:00UTC https://platform.leolabs.space/catalog/L11618#next-planned-p...

So what's that, about 90 minutes from now assuming I've got the right info?

Re: Eu_sst: 20% probability for large satellite collision

#84
post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We don't know yet. Satellites (especially defunct) don't have active live tracking like ships. Satellite sites show them based on calculated trajectories. Edit: as of 2021-04-09T20:21:00Z EUSST thinks they missed. https://twitter.com/EU_SST/status/1380601898164744199

leolabs' next anticipated contact with SL-8 R/B 12443 is at 21:06UTC https://platform.leolabs.space/catalog/L5136#next-planned-pa... next anticipated contact with OPS 6182 at 20:00UTC https://platform.leolabs.space/catalog/L11618#next-planned-p... So what's that, about 90 minutes from now assuming I've got the right info?

Are these satellites visible by telescope, can someone in e.g. Ankara try to spot SL-8 R/B 12443 as it as it flies over there in a few seconds?

Re: Eu_sst: 20% probability for large satellite collision

#85
post #2

Here's the text without having to execute arbitrary code from twitter. --- Update: according to #EUSST's latest estimates using data from its surveillance radars, the close approach between #space objects SL-8 R/B & OPS 6182 expected by tomorrow will have a miss distance under 10m and a Scaled Probability of Collision over 20%! +updates to follow soon See the below plot for the conjunction plane at Time of Close Appr…

Please omit flamebait from your comments here. You started a totally off-topic argument about Javascript which got upvoted to the top of the thread, gaining mass and choking out interesting discussion. Not cool.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

Re: Eu_sst: 20% probability for large satellite collision

#86
post #85
post #2

Here's the text without having to execute arbitrary code from twitter. --- Update: according to #EUSST's latest estimates using data from its surveillance radars, the close approach between #space objects SL-8 R/B & OPS 6182 expected by tomorrow will have a miss distance under 10m and a Scaled Probability of Collision over 20%! +updates to follow soon See the below plot for the conjunction plane at Time of Close Appr…

Please omit flamebait from your comments here. You started a totally off-topic argument about Javascript which got upvoted to the top of the thread, gaining mass and choking out interesting discussion. Not cool. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

While I agree with hiding the parent commit for the flamebait, that also hid my on-topic layman's explanation of what's happening :(

[Er… commit = comment… TGIF, leaving it in for fun ;D]

Re: Eu_sst: 20% probability for large satellite collision

#87
Missed? https://twitter.com/EU_SST/status/1380601898164744199

> UPDATE: #EUSST’s network of sensors has only detected a single object or echo at passes over three radars after close approach. Most likely, the collision between SL-8 R/B and OPS 6182 did not take place. We will continue observing the objects to confirm this assessment.

Re: Eu_sst: 20% probability for large satellite collision

#88
post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

leolabs' next anticipated contact with SL-8 R/B 12443 is at 21:06UTC https://platform.leolabs.space/catalog/L5136#next-planned-pa... next anticipated contact with OPS 6182 at 20:00UTC https://platform.leolabs.space/catalog/L11618#next-planned-p... So what's that, about 90 minutes from now assuming I've got the right info?

Are these satellites visible by telescope, can someone in e.g. Ankara try to spot SL-8 R/B 12443 as it as it flies over there in a few seconds?

Is there an automated amateur run satellite tracking network? Just tracking points of light at dusk/dawn is an easy thing and wouldn't even require pointing, imagers could be fixed.

Re: Eu_sst: 20% probability for large satellite collision

#90
post #86
post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please omit flamebait from your comments here. You started a totally off-topic argument about Javascript which got upvoted to the top of the thread, gaining mass and choking out interesting discussion. Not cool. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

While I agree with hiding the parent commit for the flamebait, that also hid my on-topic layman's explanation of what's happening :( [Er… commit = comment… TGIF, leaving it in for fun ;D]

Good point. I've detached https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26752335, which was the return to ontopicness.
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