Eu_sst: 20% probability for large satellite collision
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Re: Eu_sst: 20% probability for large satellite collision
#2Here's the text without having to execute arbitrary code from twitter.
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Update: according to #EUSST's latest estimates using data from its surveillance radars, the close approach between #space objects SL-8 R/B & OPS 6182 expected by tomorrow will have a miss distance under 10m and a Scaled Probability of Collision over 20%! +updates to follow soon
See the below plot for the conjunction plane at Time of Close Approach (TCA) #EUSST #spacedebris #space
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EycvaPZWQAMXjV2?format=png&name=...
Update: #EUSST simulations indicate that the potential collision between the two #space objects would generate more than 4 million fragments. This plot shows the Delta-V distribution of the whole cloud of fragments #spacedebris
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EyhGxpjXMAE-pmM?format=jpg&name=...
More than 400 of the fragments generated by the potential collision would be larger than 20cm. Gabbard diagram shows the extent of orbital regimes that these simulated fragments would reach. #EUSST continues monitoring the probability of collision. Stay tuned for more updates.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EyhQ_InWYAI5V5a?format=jpg&name=...
Latest update: according to #EUSST the close approach between #space objects SL-8 R/B and OPS 6182 remains stable in geometry and in Scaled Probability of Collision. Miss distance would be ~21m and Scaled PoC over 20%. This should be the last estimate until TCA.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EyiBCnsXEAAgrCu?format=jpg&name=...
Re: Eu_sst: 20% probability for large satellite collision
#3How likely is a massive satellite collapse is to happen in nearest future? Are there any educated guesses/estimates?
Re: Eu_sst: 20% probability for large satellite collision
#4Here's the text without having to execute arbitrary code from twitter. --- Update: according to #EUSST's latest estimates using data from its surveillance radars, the close approach between #space objects SL-8 R/B & OPS 6182 expected by tomorrow will have a miss distance under 10m and a Scaled Probability of Collision over 20%! +updates to follow soon See the below plot for the conjunction plane at Time of Close Appr…
Are you able to translate this to layman's terms?
Should I find a bunker?
Re: Eu_sst: 20% probability for large satellite collision
#5Anyone knows above where it could happen? I see that it's almost 800km above earth, but what about nearest lat/lon?
Re: Eu_sst: 20% probability for large satellite collision
#6In summary, a rocket body and an old weather satellite want to have a nice big hug. At high speed. Producing a cloud of 4 million fragments. 400 of which will bigger than 20cm.
Except that they'll probably miss (by about 10m). Probably.
Really interesting how much of this is statistical probabilities, and how much we can model about this. Right down to particle sizes.
And yet, I still have so many questions. Mostly involving the maths from https://what-if.xkcd.com/13/ and whether we could push either of them out of the way...
Re: Eu_sst: 20% probability for large satellite collision
#7Here's the text without having to execute arbitrary code from twitter. --- Update: according to #EUSST's latest estimates using data from its surveillance radars, the close approach between #space objects SL-8 R/B & OPS 6182 expected by tomorrow will have a miss distance under 10m and a Scaled Probability of Collision over 20%! +updates to follow soon See the below plot for the conjunction plane at Time of Close Appr…
Re: Eu_sst: 20% probability for large satellite collision
#8Here's the text without having to execute arbitrary code from twitter. --- Update: according to #EUSST's latest estimates using data from its surveillance radars, the close approach between #space objects SL-8 R/B & OPS 6182 expected by tomorrow will have a miss distance under 10m and a Scaled Probability of Collision over 20%! +updates to follow soon See the below plot for the conjunction plane at Time of Close Appr…
Are you able to translate this to layman's terms? Should I find a bunker?
I assume the fear of this sort of thing is the potential for causing Kessler Syndrome.
Re: Eu_sst: 20% probability for large satellite collision
#9Here's the text without having to execute arbitrary code from twitter. --- Update: according to #EUSST's latest estimates using data from its surveillance radars, the close approach between #space objects SL-8 R/B & OPS 6182 expected by tomorrow will have a miss distance under 10m and a Scaled Probability of Collision over 20%! +updates to follow soon See the below plot for the conjunction plane at Time of Close Appr…
Are you able to translate this to layman's terms? Should I find a bunker?
No, there's not a risk of space debris.
Re: Eu_sst: 20% probability for large satellite collision
#10Here's the text without having to execute arbitrary code from twitter. --- Update: according to #EUSST's latest estimates using data from its surveillance radars, the close approach between #space objects SL-8 R/B & OPS 6182 expected by tomorrow will have a miss distance under 10m and a Scaled Probability of Collision over 20%! +updates to follow soon See the below plot for the conjunction plane at Time of Close Appr…
you could probably do: " rel="nofollow">https://web.archive.org/web/*/ like https://web.archive.org/*/20210409153520/https://twitter.com...
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