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Eu_sst: 20% probability for large satellite collision
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Re: Eu_sst: 20% probability for large satellite collision
#52CRISIS AVERTED
citation?
Re: Eu_sst: 20% probability for large satellite collision
#53CRISIS AVERTED
Is it? Or are the current satellite view websites just showing predicted paths?
Re: Eu_sst: 20% probability for large satellite collision
#54it's 2021 now. They have presumably been tracking the orbits of there large objects for years now. Yes this is literally rocket science, but this collision is only a few hours away. Why can't they do better then a vague 20%?
You're right; do some analysis yourself and tell us your findings ASAP please :)
Re: Eu_sst: 20% probability for large satellite collision
#55it's 2021 now. They have presumably been tracking the orbits of there large objects for years now. Yes this is literally rocket science, but this collision is only a few hours away. Why can't they do better then a vague 20%?
Because the difference between collision and safely pass is less than 0.01% on the scale they model it.
Re: Eu_sst: 20% probability for large satellite collision
#56The two satellites involved are: OPS 6182 (10820, 1978-042A): https://www.n2yo.com/satellite/?s=10820 SL-8 R/B (12443, 1981-041B): https://www.n2yo.com/satellite/?s=12443 They are on head-on course. With a probability of about 80 percent they will miss each other. With a probability of more than 20 percent they will impact at a speed of more than 50000 km/h in an altitude of 780 km. The two objects are not important…
Can somebody give a layman explanation why the debris would stay in the same orbit? I would expect a lot of energy to go into destroying both objects, especially in a head-on collision.
It doesn't. It splatters into many related orbits.
https://twitter.com/EU_SST/status/1380443036862316545/photo/...
Re: Eu_sst: 20% probability for large satellite collision
#57The two satellites involved are: OPS 6182 (10820, 1978-042A): https://www.n2yo.com/satellite/?s=10820 SL-8 R/B (12443, 1981-041B): https://www.n2yo.com/satellite/?s=12443 They are on head-on course. With a probability of about 80 percent they will miss each other. With a probability of more than 20 percent they will impact at a speed of more than 50000 km/h in an altitude of 780 km. The two objects are not important…
Did they miss?
Both those links show them still there, but I suspect they are calculated not real time
Re: Eu_sst: 20% probability for large satellite collision
#58it's 2021 now. They have presumably been tracking the orbits of there large objects for years now. Yes this is literally rocket science, but this collision is only a few hours away. Why can't they do better then a vague 20%?
You're right; do some analysis yourself and tell us your findings ASAP please :)
very funny. My sums should take me just a couple of hours...
Re: Eu_sst: 20% probability for large satellite collision
#59Earlier quoted context omitted.
You're running Javascript. It's sandboxed, which is why I have it enabled by default, but often the javascript in a website is made to spy on you and your behaviour. It's not on your side but on the side of the people who made the website. Personally I'm ok when something like discord breaks as it contains real time updates. But twitter just displays a bunch of text and pictues in a non real time manner. Even video c…
You can put a video on a page without js, but a lot of your customers would have a poor experience.
Apparently ≈2.24% of global users are using a browser that doesn't fully support HTML5 video: https://caniuse.com/video
Re: Eu_sst: 20% probability for large satellite collision
#60it's 2021 now. They have presumably been tracking the orbits of there large objects for years now. Yes this is literally rocket science, but this collision is only a few hours away. Why can't they do better then a vague 20%?
Friction is difficult to model and is the dominant source of uncertainty.