Leolabs is tracking as well. Their data suggests a slightly lower but >2% chance of collision
https://twitter.com/LeoLabs_Space/status/1380549507390259203
Eu_sst: 20% probability for large satellite collision
11–20 of 98 posts
Re: Eu_sst: 20% probability for large satellite collision
#12Here's the text without having to execute arbitrary code from twitter. --- Update: according to #EUSST's latest estimates using data from its surveillance radars, the close approach between #space objects SL-8 R/B & OPS 6182 expected by tomorrow will have a miss distance under 10m and a Scaled Probability of Collision over 20%! +updates to follow soon See the below plot for the conjunction plane at Time of Close Appr…
Are you able to translate this to layman's terms? Should I find a bunker?
You don't need to find a bunker, but there's a risk that we'll soon have a lot more 'space debris' in orbit. If a collision happens, it'll basically turn the colliding satellites into scattershot, leading to a higher likelyhood of other smaller collisions with other satellites (less spectacular but could still disable even more satellite). Not sure how likely the latter scenario is, but it could get very costly if it did happen.
Re: Eu_sst: 20% probability for large satellite collision
#13The two satellites involved are:
OPS 6182 (10820, 1978-042A): https://www.n2yo.com/satellite/?s=10820
SL-8 R/B (12443, 1981-041B): https://www.n2yo.com/satellite/?s=12443
They are on head-on course. With a probability of about 80 percent they will miss each other. With a probability of more than 20 percent they will impact at a speed of more than 50000 km/h in an altitude of 780 km.
The two objects are not important (an old Russian rocket piece and an old US weather satellite).
But upon impact, the objects will create a large cloud of debris, that might collide with more objects, in the worst case in a chain reaction.
The danger is not falling debris, but that they will produce more damage in their orbit, maybe hitting more essential space equipment in the future.
No need to hide in a bunker.
Re: Eu_sst: 20% probability for large satellite collision
#14Leolabs is tracking as well. Their data suggests a slightly lower but >2% chance of collision https://twitter.com/LeoLabs_Space/status/1380549507390259203
That's somewhat more comforting, but alas, hope alone is not a strategy.
Re: Eu_sst: 20% probability for large satellite collision
#15Anyone knows above where it could happen? I see that it's almost 800km above earth, but what about nearest lat/lon?
67.820°N
176.552°O
(north-east Russia)
Re: Eu_sst: 20% probability for large satellite collision
#16The two satellites involved are: OPS 6182 (10820, 1978-042A): https://www.n2yo.com/satellite/?s=10820 SL-8 R/B (12443, 1981-041B): https://www.n2yo.com/satellite/?s=12443 They are on head-on course. With a probability of about 80 percent they will miss each other. With a probability of more than 20 percent they will impact at a speed of more than 50000 km/h in an altitude of 780 km. The two objects are not important…
Excellent explanation, thanks very much!
Re: Eu_sst: 20% probability for large satellite collision
#17Here's the text without having to execute arbitrary code from twitter. --- Update: according to #EUSST's latest estimates using data from its surveillance radars, the close approach between #space objects SL-8 R/B & OPS 6182 expected by tomorrow will have a miss distance under 10m and a Scaled Probability of Collision over 20%! +updates to follow soon See the below plot for the conjunction plane at Time of Close Appr…
> Here's the text without having to execute arbitrary code from twitter
Ok, I'll bite, what's this about? What "arbitrary" code is being executed when you visit Twitter?
Re: Eu_sst: 20% probability for large satellite collision
#18Do near misses (hopefully) like this happen without us knowing, or do we track almost everything in orbit?
Re: Eu_sst: 20% probability for large satellite collision
#19Here's the text without having to execute arbitrary code from twitter. --- Update: according to #EUSST's latest estimates using data from its surveillance radars, the close approach between #space objects SL-8 R/B & OPS 6182 expected by tomorrow will have a miss distance under 10m and a Scaled Probability of Collision over 20%! +updates to follow soon See the below plot for the conjunction plane at Time of Close Appr…
> Here's the text without having to execute arbitrary code from twitter Ok, I'll bite, what's this about? What "arbitrary" code is being executed when you visit Twitter?
You're running Javascript. It's sandboxed, which is why I have it enabled by default, but often the javascript in a website is made to spy on you and your behaviour. It's not on your side but on the side of the people who made the website.
Personally I'm ok when something like discord breaks as it contains real time updates. But twitter just displays a bunch of text and pictues in a non real time manner. Even video can be played back without any js.