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Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

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Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#31

Post by benmmurphy »

VBprogrammer wrote: post #10
silicon2401 wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's literally the ad hominem fallacy. We should investigate the claim on its own merits, not the merits of whoever is making the claim

Uh-huh, lets have a polite conversation sprinkled with some Latin. Mean while racists are empowered to attach Asian Americans in the street because they "created the virus".

The premise should be up for debate but we shouldn't accept the implication that because a lab in China leaked the virus it is moral to attack Chinese looking people in the street. You are effectively accepting the racist's reasoning if you ignore the implication and devote your energy to attacking their premise. I see this over and over again. Someone says A can't be true when A is a statement of fact because a group will make the argument A => B where B is something they find morally repugnant. When it comes to statements of fact you are much better arguing over A => B than hoping facts about the world conveniently line up with your moral conclusions.

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#32

Post by HPsquared »

modzu wrote: post #12
dhimes wrote: post #9

The only issue here is that lab safety protocols may have to be tightened up in the lab responsible. Scientists mutate things in the lab all the time in order to have a tool for effective study. If this came from a lab, then it would be the same thing (not some sort of weapon, like the hysterical Right wants people to believe). Most believe that it didn't, but rather that it was in the human population a few months b…

i'm curious what you would add to biosafety level 4 to tighten it up? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biosafety_level#Biosafety_leve...

Eliminate or reduce the hazard is the most effective measure.

A commonly used hierarchy is "ERICPD", from most to least effective: Eliminate, Reduce, Isolate, Control, PPE and Discipline

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#33

Post by newacct583 »

gfodor wrote: post #7
newacct583 wrote: post #2

Almost no theories can be "ruled out" in this space. Viruses evolve in crazy and essentially unobservable ways. Nonetheless, we know there was a close relative documented in bats on the same continent within a comparable timeframe. The clearly obvious hypothesis is that animal transmission was the vector, for the simple reason that this is the way every single other pandemic, human or otherwise, has happened. There i…

Occam's Razor doesn't really apply to this one, because each side has different priors on which theory is actually the "simplest." Given that, as far as I know, we don't have a single human case documented before those in Wuhan - something which a) should have been likely and b) China would be highly incentivized to root out since it would disprove the lab hypothesis, it implies patient zero was probably in Wuhan. If…

> Given that, as far as I know, we don't have a single human case documented before those in Wuhan - something which a) should have been likely

Um... why? The virus has to jump species somewhere. If the first documented case was in Shanghai, you could make the same argument.

I think what you're trying to say is that the jump had to have happened in Yunnan, because that's where that particular bat sample was found. But that's not what the data says at all. The Yunnan virus was a relative, not an ancestor. There are uncounted millions of wild coronavirus strains we don't see for every one we sequence. There is no reason at all to believe that some Wuhan-local bat, say, had a related strain that became the covid ancestor. Or some other species, etc...

Again, that's the way viruses evolve. It's the way pandemics start. It's the way pandemics have always started. Demanding that this is somehow a crazy engineered virus dropped on us by a despotic foreign government is... how pandemics start in bad movies.

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#34

Post by martin_bech »

newacct583 wrote: post #2

Almost no theories can be "ruled out" in this space. Viruses evolve in crazy and essentially unobservable ways. Nonetheless, we know there was a close relative documented in bats on the same continent within a comparable timeframe. The clearly obvious hypothesis is that animal transmission was the vector, for the simple reason that this is the way every single other pandemic, human or otherwise, has happened. There i…

But the distance inside China is the equivilant of a known bat virus in a remote location somewhere in Budapest, where only farmers live, and ground zero of the virus beeing downtown London streetfood market.. (were all the food and everything tested negativ..)

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#35

Post by kgwxd »

mylons wrote: post #3

we should definitely shout down anyone who says it, though!

Researchers should be discussing it. Until conclusive evidence is found, the only reason to post it on social media is to add fuel to the conspiracy fire, a fire that's inspiring people to kill people that couldn't possibly have anything to do with the origin of the virus.

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#36

Post by bscvbscv »

VBprogrammer wrote: post #10
silicon2401 wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's literally the ad hominem fallacy. We should investigate the claim on its own merits, not the merits of whoever is making the claim

Uh-huh, lets have a polite conversation sprinkled with some Latin. Mean while racists are empowered to attach Asian Americans in the street because they "created the virus".

Whoa, I found someone who actually believes in the "racists attacking asians because they created the virus" narrative. Holy shit.

Black people are attacking asians. You say that's because of this idea that Asians created the virus. Do you have any actual evidence of their motivations?

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#37

Post by metalliqaz »

it's not xenophobic, but xenophobic people really love to talk about it. that's the problem with the discourse.

of course the irony is that it doesn't even matter. We already know China (1) tried to cover it up, screwing the rest of the world, and (2) has poor wet market sanitation practices that seem designed to cultivate these kinds of diseases. Those issues are already bad enough.

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#38

Post by jkelleyrtp »

modzu wrote: post #12
dhimes wrote: post #9

The only issue here is that lab safety protocols may have to be tightened up in the lab responsible. Scientists mutate things in the lab all the time in order to have a tool for effective study. If this came from a lab, then it would be the same thing (not some sort of weapon, like the hysterical Right wants people to believe). Most believe that it didn't, but rather that it was in the human population a few months b…

i'm curious what you would add to biosafety level 4 to tighten it up? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biosafety_level#Biosafety_leve...

The BSL prescribes the precautions that must be taken to maintain safety, but it's up to human oversight to actually enforce those practices. It's not uncommon for viruses to escape even BSL4 both in the US and abroad.

Both labs in Wuhan have had accidental contamination incidents while collecting field samples in caves. Working with hazardous materials is always dangerous, and history has no shortage of lessons to teach us.

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#39

Post by newacct583 »

martin_bech wrote: post #34
newacct583 wrote: post #2

Almost no theories can be "ruled out" in this space. Viruses evolve in crazy and essentially unobservable ways. Nonetheless, we know there was a close relative documented in bats on the same continent within a comparable timeframe. The clearly obvious hypothesis is that animal transmission was the vector, for the simple reason that this is the way every single other pandemic, human or otherwise, has happened. There i…

But the distance inside China is the equivilant of a known bat virus in a remote location somewhere in Budapest, where only farmers live, and ground zero of the virus beeing downtown London streetfood market.. (were all the food and everything tested negativ..)

You don't think bats exchange viruses between Budapest and London? That's nothing. Viruses in interacting populations are routinely continent wide.

Let me flip this around: do you have even one example of a virus within a compatible species spectrum that does not expand across continent scales over the "few year" timeframe we're discussing?

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#40

Post by Loughla »

martin_bech wrote: post #34
newacct583 wrote: post #2

Almost no theories can be "ruled out" in this space. Viruses evolve in crazy and essentially unobservable ways. Nonetheless, we know there was a close relative documented in bats on the same continent within a comparable timeframe. The clearly obvious hypothesis is that animal transmission was the vector, for the simple reason that this is the way every single other pandemic, human or otherwise, has happened. There i…

But the distance inside China is the equivilant of a known bat virus in a remote location somewhere in Budapest, where only farmers live, and ground zero of the virus beeing downtown London streetfood market.. (were all the food and everything tested negativ..)

I don't understand what your argument is. Can you please expand?
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