Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out
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Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out
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Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out
#2Almost no theories can be "ruled out" in this space. Viruses evolve in crazy and essentially unobservable ways.
Nonetheless, we know there was a close relative documented in bats on the same continent within a comparable timeframe. The clearly obvious hypothesis is that animal transmission was the vector, for the simple reason that this is the way every single other pandemic, human or otherwise, has happened. There is nothing unique or notable about covid from the perspective of viral evolution. Period. So Occam says we go with the simplest theory.
Attempts to wave away that fact have nothing to do with science about what was happening in Wuhan and everything to do with modern political opinions about a government 1000km away in Beijing.
Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out
#3we should definitely shout down anyone who says it, though!
Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out
#4TL;DR
Inconclusive evidence. The real message is "We don’t know."
Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out
#5we should definitely shout down anyone who says it, though!
When someone's reasons for saying it are simply because it aligns with their own prejudices, shouting it down is reasonable.
Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out
#6Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out
#7Almost no theories can be "ruled out" in this space. Viruses evolve in crazy and essentially unobservable ways. Nonetheless, we know there was a close relative documented in bats on the same continent within a comparable timeframe. The clearly obvious hypothesis is that animal transmission was the vector, for the simple reason that this is the way every single other pandemic, human or otherwise, has happened. There i…
Occam's Razor doesn't really apply to this one, because each side has different priors on which theory is actually the "simplest."
Given that, as far as I know, we don't have a single human case documented before those in Wuhan - something which a) should have been likely and b) China would be highly incentivized to root out since it would disprove the lab hypothesis, it implies patient zero was probably in Wuhan. If that's true, Occam could cut the other way, since the notion that case zero of a virus making a species transition would just so happen to occur in a city with a virology lab doing research on the same kind of viruses is a bit hard to believe.
Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out
#8we should definitely shout down anyone who says it, though!
When someone's reasons for saying it are simply because it aligns with their own prejudices, shouting it down is reasonable.
That's literally the ad hominem fallacy. We should investigate the claim on its own merits, not the merits of whoever is making the claim
Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out
#9The only issue here is that lab safety protocols may have to be tightened up in the lab responsible. Scientists mutate things in the lab all the time in order to have a tool for effective study. If this came from a lab, then it would be the same thing (not some sort of weapon, like the hysterical Right wants people to believe).
Most believe that it didn't, but rather that it was in the human population a few months before we knew. But maybe not.
Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out
#10Earlier quoted context omitted.
When someone's reasons for saying it are simply because it aligns with their own prejudices, shouting it down is reasonable.
That's literally the ad hominem fallacy. We should investigate the claim on its own merits, not the merits of whoever is making the claim
Uh-huh, lets have a polite conversation sprinkled with some Latin. Mean while racists are empowered to attach Asian Americans in the street because they "created the virus".