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Lithium battery costs have fallen by 98% in three decades

economist.com

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Re: Lithium battery costs have fallen by 98% in three decades

#101

Post by iknowstuff »

minitoar wrote: post #80
hristov wrote: post #71

This is important to keep in mind when you read articles and/or studies about how electric cars or wind or solar power is impractical. A lot of the data these studies use is just obsolete. Say you have an opinion piece in a news paper that says that electric cars will always be expensive toys for the rich. It relies on a scientific paper published in a technical journal 2 years ago. The scientific paper does not perf…

Are there many gains to be had on electric motors? I guess I sort of assumed those had seen quite a bit of optimization already.

> The engineers of Tesla motor's shocked everyone when they abandoned the versatile induction motor in Model 3 cars. They used a totally different motor called IPM-SynRM. Let's understand why the Tesla engineers made this crucial design change.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esUb7Zy5Oio

Re: Lithium battery costs have fallen by 98% in three decades

#102

Post by baybal2 »

ajuc wrote: post #72
umvi wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is that? Is it because North Americans use electricity for cooking and heating whereas other countries use gas for that?

Air conditioning isn't needed in many EU countries except for a few days a year (so it's not worth to even install it in private homes, modern offices mostly have them though for some reason). Also depending on the country few people use cloth driers - you just hang your clothes on a cable and let them dry by themselves. Houses in colder parts of EU are also usually better isolated than in US ([1] that's a typical Po…

> ([1] that's a typical Polish house for example),

I believe a typical Polish "house" will be an apartment.

Re: Lithium battery costs have fallen by 98% in three decades

#103

Post by baybal2 »

300africans wrote: post #9
tyingq wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A Tesla Powerwall 2 weighs 114.0 kg and provides 13.5 kWh. Average US household electricity consumption is 877 kWh/month, which would be 29kWh/day. Either they mean a very efficient/small house, or homeowners with unusually frugal habits. Edit: Average UK household electricity consumption appears to be around 10kWh/day.

Here in Burkina faso, I use between 5 and 12kwh per day with air con some months taking it close to 15kwh. If the price keeps coming down and with some solar installation, one can leave the grid in a couple of years time

How is life in Burkina Faso?

Re: Lithium battery costs have fallen by 98% in three decades

#104

Post by iknowstuff »

supernova87a wrote: post #87

I'm pretty interested to know what parts of this cost have hit their practical limit, and which still have cost to be squeezed out? -- Mineral scarcity/cost of mining -- Cost of processing, refining lithium -- Cost of making battery chemical contents -- Cost of assembling rest of complete battery Any info on how much more advance there is to go on these aspects? And, after all that is squeezed out, is lithium still g…

Some of this was answered during Tesla's battery day if you're into it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l6T9xIeZTds

Re: Lithium battery costs have fallen by 98% in three decades

#105

Post by sokoloff »

hristov wrote: post #71

This is important to keep in mind when you read articles and/or studies about how electric cars or wind or solar power is impractical. A lot of the data these studies use is just obsolete. Say you have an opinion piece in a news paper that says that electric cars will always be expensive toys for the rich. It relies on a scientific paper published in a technical journal 2 years ago. The scientific paper does not perf…

> while a car lasts only 10-15 years

While it might be the case that today’s EVs will not be economically longer-lived than 15 years, the overall average age of a car in the US is 12 years, and most of my cars have been bought with 10 or more years on them as it makes for very inexpensive motoring (no need for collision or comprehensive insurance, no financing interest, and nearly no depreciation).

I bought my 2015 LEAF new and suspect it will not be economically viable in 2030 while our 2005 Honda CR-V is 16 years old now, still going strong, and most likely will still be in service in 2030.

Re: Lithium battery costs have fallen by 98% in three decades

#106

Post by ajuc »

baybal2 wrote: post #102
ajuc wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Air conditioning isn't needed in many EU countries except for a few days a year (so it's not worth to even install it in private homes, modern offices mostly have them though for some reason). Also depending on the country few people use cloth driers - you just hang your clothes on a cable and let them dry by themselves. Houses in colder parts of EU are also usually better isolated than in US ([1] that's a typical Po…

> ([1] that's a typical Polish house for example), I believe a typical Polish "house" will be an apartment.

42% of Poles live in apartaments. It was slightly above 50% several years ago.

Re: Lithium battery costs have fallen by 98% in three decades

#107

Post by xyzzy21 »

noahtallen wrote: post #99
baybal2 wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Say you have an opinion piece in a news paper that says that electric cars will always be expensive toys for the rich. Well, you don't see poor people buying EVs that much. That's car manufacturer statistics, which I believe deserves a good degree of trust. In the market for new cars, poor people buy cheapest IC cars, but not cheapest EVs. I will take the point that middle class is now buying budget EVs, but you do…

There’s still a large difference between upper-middle class and upper class. I think many middle class jobs can support owning a Tesla Model 3 or other mid-range new car but not a Porsche. When I hear “expensive toy for the rich”, I think of a millionaire’s 3rd lambo, not Bill’s Silverado lease. Initial Teslas were sports cars, and now it’s squarely in middle class territory. Still a big improvement and a big market,…

Not when I can buy an ICE and operate for cheaper - note the nearest "charge station" to me is 30+ miles away and then the next nearest is 100+ miles beyond that.

The drop in diesel and gasoline prices recently only cements the value of an ICE vehicle.

Re: Lithium battery costs have fallen by 98% in three decades

#108

Post by chrisseaton »

sokoloff wrote: post #105
hristov wrote: post #71

This is important to keep in mind when you read articles and/or studies about how electric cars or wind or solar power is impractical. A lot of the data these studies use is just obsolete. Say you have an opinion piece in a news paper that says that electric cars will always be expensive toys for the rich. It relies on a scientific paper published in a technical journal 2 years ago. The scientific paper does not perf…

> while a car lasts only 10-15 years While it might be the case that today’s EVs will not be economically longer-lived than 15 years, the overall average age of a car in the US is 12 years, and most of my cars have been bought with 10 or more years on them as it makes for very inexpensive motoring (no need for collision or comprehensive insurance, no financing interest, and nearly no depreciation). I bought my 2015 L…

> no need for collision or comprehensive insurance, no financing interest, and nearly no depreciation

But you need to maintain it and have it inspected instead!

And you're also paying with your safety - ten years is a very long time in safety technology these days!

Re: Lithium battery costs have fallen by 98% in three decades

#109

Post by seveneightn9ne »

mavhc wrote: post #79
aszantu wrote: post #38

lithium is just cheap because it wrecks some 3rd world countries natural resources. If they'd slap the price of recovery times it will need to regrow nature in that place, it wouldn't be as cheap.

Which countries? In what way does it wreck them?

Bolivia. The US-backed coup against Evo Morales may very well have been in part because of his intention to implement state control of lithium extraction, preventing foreign companies from ransacking the country's natural resource. https://www.humanrightspulse.com/mastercontentblog/bolivian-...

Re: Lithium battery costs have fallen by 98% in three decades

#110

Post by galangalalgol »

kragen wrote: post #43
abdullahkhalids wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1 KWh/day for Fridge. Lights should do less than 0.5KWh/day. Washing machine is maybe 0.3KWh/day. Maybe, other electronics might add up to 1-2KWh/day. Cooling is not required most of the year. Maybe fans for a couple of months. Heating is separate (EDIT: UK figure), as others have noted. What else are you using electricity on?

Heating, which can easily be 5 kW, 120 kWh/day; many US houses are heated electrically, so it's not always separate. Air conditioning can easily be 3 kW, or 72 kWh/day, although it's usually only on during the daytime, so figure 30 kWh/day; it's common to run a 240 VAC circuit in the US for the air conditioner because the 2.4 kW of a standard 120 VAC 20 A circuit is insufficient. Incandescent lights could easily be 1…

I think AC is usually 440v around here. It is the largest consumer.
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