Earlier quoted context omitted.
> I think this is just the usual goal post moving, if a machine does it then we decide it wasn't really dangerous for a machine to do it. I've seen a lot of goalpost moving in the other direction on this one, to be honest - Self Driving Cars started as "never have an accident again!" and have slowly migrated to "look, you suck at driving, the robot sucks less, so stop bitching when the robot runs over grandma"
*runs over grandma who us trying to ilegally and suddenly cross the street right in front of the car
CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving
81–90 of 248 posts
Re: CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving
#82Waymo has had a ton of notable departures:
* Urmson made a good amount of money and left for Aurora.
* The founders of Nuro cashed in $40m each and left for their own thing.
* Levandowski made nearly a quarter billion and took off.
* Drago worked on Streetview and more Google-centric things, then went to Zoox to make about $100k (lol), then returned to Waymo.
* Now the era of Krafcik is coming to an end.
The perhaps unique thing about the self-driving problem is that all of the above individuals made tons of money without having delivered equitable value to end-users. At least not today. When Google was bleeding headcount to Facebook, both companies were making bank. It's surreal to see people minted with money for life and yet deliver so little value. That sort of arbitrage usually only happens on Wall Street.
I think it's worth reflecting on the era of Krafcik as a general success-- he was brought in to do hard work and he generally did a good job. But by no means did he (nor any of his predecessors) solve the "team" problem. Krafcik himself couldn't stick to the team he helped shape, nor the userbase he helped grow, at least nt long enough to actually deliver widespread value on the scale of his own compensation.
Re: CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving
#83That's sad. I must be the only one who thinks full self driving will not happen before year 2100. Is there an example of anything that's completely automated that's dangerous? I cannot think of a single thing. At best things are partially automated and need humans still. The thing is, if you have "partial" self driving, you might as well just drive yourself IMHO. The consequence of being wrong with a car is literally…
You can, today, go to Pheonix Arizona, download the Waymo One app, and summon a full self driving vehicle. This happened silently at the end of 2020, and was overshadowed by the ongoing pandemic doom and gloom. https://blog.waymo.com/2020/10/waymo-is-opening-its-fully-dr... On the subject of danger. Literally everything we do is dangerous to some degree. Everything. Self-driving does not need to be perfect, but only…
Is this actually true? I haven't heard of this. You're saying we will have an AI as good as a grown educated adult before 2100? I can't believe this at all - do you have a citation?
Re: CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving
#84That's sad. I must be the only one who thinks full self driving will not happen before year 2100. Is there an example of anything that's completely automated that's dangerous? I cannot think of a single thing. At best things are partially automated and need humans still. The thing is, if you have "partial" self driving, you might as well just drive yourself IMHO. The consequence of being wrong with a car is literally…
Flying an airplane. They put pilots in there to make people comfortable, but if need be, a modern passenger plane can fly itself, including take off and landing.
Driving a subway. BART in San Francisco launched as self driving in the 60s. It freaked people out so much that they put a human in front. But if you sit up there you'll see the human doesn't do much. They press a button to close the doors, but that could easily be automated.
Also, I took a ride in a self driving car in SF a few years ago. It had a safety driver, but he didn't do anything (he grabbed the wheel once, but then they looked at the data and found the car was about to do the right thing anyway). It handled things like cars going the wrong way, double parked trucks, trash bags in the street, jaywalkers, etc.
Re: CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving
#85I'm curious about the co-CEO thing. That seems like it is universally something that doesn't work and is just what happens when nobody wants to make a tough decision. Is there any context on why it might be the right move here?
"The company said Friday that it is promoting its chief technology and operating officers, Dmitri Dolgov and Tekedra Mawakana, to lead a decade-old effort to make self-driving cars a reality. They will share the title of co-chief executive... Mr. Dolgov is one of the founders of Google’s self-driving car project. He joined the program when it began in 2009 and led the development of Waymo’s autonomous system, known as Waymo Driver. He studied physics and math at the Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology before earning a doctorate in computer science from the University of Michigan. As chief operating officer, Ms. Mawakana has led the effort to commercialize Waymo’s self-driving system. She has a law degree from Columbia University and previously worked at other tech companies such as eBay Inc. and Yahoo."
https://www.wsj.com/articles/waymo-ceo-john-krafcik-is-leavi...
My guess it that traditionally the chief operating officer would have been promoted and the chief technology officer would stay as the chief technology officer--but that there was a significant risk of the chief technology officer leaving if he wasn't promoted. So you end up with co-CEOs.
Re: CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving
#86That's sad. I must be the only one who thinks full self driving will not happen before year 2100. Is there an example of anything that's completely automated that's dangerous? I cannot think of a single thing. At best things are partially automated and need humans still. The thing is, if you have "partial" self driving, you might as well just drive yourself IMHO. The consequence of being wrong with a car is literally…
You can, today, go to Pheonix Arizona, download the Waymo One app, and summon a full self driving vehicle. This happened silently at the end of 2020, and was overshadowed by the ongoing pandemic doom and gloom. https://blog.waymo.com/2020/10/waymo-is-opening-its-fully-dr... On the subject of danger. Literally everything we do is dangerous to some degree. Everything. Self-driving does not need to be perfect, but only…
Re: CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving
#87Earlier quoted context omitted.
A interesting analogy is the Washington DC Metro, which was automated but now isn't due to a significant accident in 2009 which killed 9 people. That's a train on rails. We have much less tolerance for computers killing people compared to people killing people.
The DC metro was once automated? Interesting
Re: CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving
#88I still think it was a mistake to hire this guy and partner with the auto industry dinosaurs. Should have kept going down the path of being independent and building their own cars without steering wheels. I never liked "Waymo" as a brand either. Maybe just retrofitting off the shelf cars made sense if they thought they needed hundreds of thousands of cars ASAP, but it turns out they would have had plenty of time to d…
This is a highly under rated take. The reason they didn't do so was industry pressure/competition. The counter point could be that the technology is there, but the regulation is not. Why must everything be retrofitted versus a complete system overhaul? The initial costs may be immense but the return on investment will be far greater. Just my two cents.
Re: CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving
#89That's sad. I must be the only one who thinks full self driving will not happen before year 2100. Is there an example of anything that's completely automated that's dangerous? I cannot think of a single thing. At best things are partially automated and need humans still. The thing is, if you have "partial" self driving, you might as well just drive yourself IMHO. The consequence of being wrong with a car is literally…
Eg, I wouldn't consider the stuff Tesla is doing as self driving at all. I have significant worry because to reduces attention while still requiring it for safety.
If you're talking "Hail robocab, don't touch a steering wheel, arrive at your destination", then Waymo is already there: https://blog.waymo.com/2020/10/waymo-is-opening-its-fully-dr...
You might mean "does everything everyone uses a vehicle for today", however I feel that's perhaps moving the goalposts to unattainable. Eg, replacing nascar racers with self driving cars would defeat the point of nascar, so that's won't happen. (though it might be an interesting side event.)
Between the two extremes of public pilot in limited area and handling every situation, there's a very large space for tremendous value. Just serving urban areas would significantly reduce the need for vehicles. There are many people who only use public transit, or could if they had more economical ways to handle sporadic trips such as grocery shopping and visiting friends across town.
Re: CEO of Waymo John Krafcik is leaving
#90That's sad. I must be the only one who thinks full self driving will not happen before year 2100. Is there an example of anything that's completely automated that's dangerous? I cannot think of a single thing. At best things are partially automated and need humans still. The thing is, if you have "partial" self driving, you might as well just drive yourself IMHO. The consequence of being wrong with a car is literally…
Does anyone else think that may be full autonomous flying of aircraft will be easier to make practical than driving of automobiles?