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New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets

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Re: New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets

#131
post #118
post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Gold. There's a fixed amount of it with a pretty well known supply and demand. At least until someone lands a autonomous mining craft on an asteroid full of it can crashes the market. Anything can be upset by changes in technology.

That's the innovation of bitcoin. Lot harder to break SHA256 ;-)

Do you really believe we will be (profitably) bringing gold back from asteroids before a quantum computer is developed?

Re: New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets

#132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is absolutely no evidence backing this. The utility of the WWW was eminently visible to experts even before it existed. I have yet to meet an expert in equivalent fields who complains that the core issues in finance can be solved by cryptocurrencies. In fact I don't really see any issues that can be solved by crypto. Trust issues? Crypto users are as likely if not more to be scammed and the technology itself do…

existing markets by their very nature don't want to be disrupted. Its like saying librarians didnt see any issues with the storage of information before the internet came along. The ‘issues solved’ by programmable money are the opportunity for full automation of the finance industry and for businesses to interact with it via smart contracts (instead of accountants and lawyers) Uniswap could be a replacement for all t…

Which is of course complete bollocks because the cost of the IT infrastructure for a lot fo these businesses is already lower than the transaction costs for these decentralised finance platforms.

Re: New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets

#133
post #100
post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the dollars are borrowed or printed in exchange for collateral, no value has been destroyed, just dollars have been issued to account for that value. Not all newly printed dollars are the same, and this idea that M1/M2 volume is important to determine inflation is an outdated way of thinking. What the US has "stimulated" is preventing the economy from going into a recession. There are many businesses that are open…

$12 trillion Take a look at where the money went. Buying $800 billion of mortgage backed securities and 1.96 trillion in long term treasuries. A lot of other line items. 1.54 trillion in Loan and Grant Programs. You can argue that these somehow all of these trickled down to keeping businesses open, as perfectly designed by the masters of the universe that have only our interests at heart, but I'm skeptical. I persona…

I don't understand your argument, if asset prices are what they were pre-covid, then doesn't that represent a stabilization of the economy, not some sign of significant growth in the future.

Also, the stock market is not the economy. Those treasuries are what allowed us to send money to people, to subsidize student loan interest, to fund extended UI benefits, to fund Operation Warp Speed, to purchase 100's of millions of doses of vaccines.

There are valid critiques of our system, free markets, capitalism, and even some modicum of truth that the government does a lot to reward already successful people, but your pushing a bunch of rhetoric that is borderline conspiracy and not really backing it up an understanding of how the economy works.

Re: New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets

#134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ask Saddam Hussein, who tried to price Iraqi oil in Euros in 2000. Or Gaddafi, who was tolerated by western powers until he tried to introduce the pan-African gold Dinar and encourage oil producing nations to de-dollarize in favor of it.

Is it widely believed among world leaders that the US will invade if they do anything that would harm the USD?

I mean, I don't have direct knowledge of what world leaders believe, so I can't really answer that.

But the US consistently presents a carrot/stick model for the dollar: if you're a country and you play ball – price your exports in dollars, invest in US government debt – you find access to US and other Western military equipment and training. That's why US weapons are being used in the Yemeni civil war.

Refuse to play along and you'll pay the price. It may not be something as dramatic as an invasion, though – sanctions don't spill American blood and can be very effective in crippling economies. Chávez wanted to kill the dollar and move to a basket of currencies and gold; now, Maduro is letting banks open local accounts and transfer money in dollars.

Re: New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets

#135
post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's the innovation of bitcoin. Lot harder to break SHA256 ;-)

Do you really believe we will be (profitably) bringing gold back from asteroids before a quantum computer is developed?

Quantum computers isn't going to break hashing.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-quantum_cryptography

>In contrast to the threat quantum computing poses to current public-key algorithms, most current symmetric cryptographic algorithms and hash functions are considered to be relatively secure against attacks by quantum computers

Re: New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets

#136
post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even years ago before the previous bull run, the most compelling narrative was that bitcoin would first displace gold as a store of value, and then maybe become a global currency. Some people did still cling to the 'digital cash for everyone' narrative, but it's pretty clear that doesn't scale. It's not clear if bitcoin will scale for global payments with second layers, but it seems like the most compelling approach.…

I read that gold actually outperformed the stock market since the end of the gold standard in the US (1971). I didn't really believe it , but it sort of did, depending on when you bought gold [0]. Not that gold is a good investment, but it does say something that its increased at ~7% a year since introduction of a completely fiat currency. I'm not smart enough to have a story to explain what that all means, but let's…

From Jan 1st 1971 to Dec 31st 2020, the US stock market grew by 10.91%/year CAGR if you include dividends which you should. 7.70%/year CAGR if you don’t include dividends. In that time frame, $1 has grown to $177.33.

I did the math to find out what the melt value of a $10 1913 gold coin would be today in 2021. Over that more than 100 year time frame, the CAGR of gold is 5%/year.

Since 10.91% is far higher than 5% or 7%, I’m inclined to believe that investing in productive companies is far better than investing in a hunk of yellow metal that just sits there.

Re: New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets

#137
post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's the innovation of bitcoin. Lot harder to break SHA256 ;-)

Do you really believe we will be (profitably) bringing gold back from asteroids before a quantum computer is developed?

Not sure. I don't think quantum computer would necessarily break bitcoin encryption. I don't think it would come out of nowhere, but if it were to happen, I think there would be a hard fork to change the algo to one that is quantum secure (such algorithms do exist). I have more faith in the organization capabilities of the Bitcoin core developers especially with so much wealth at stake. Compare that to a gold supply shock. You'd have to get a lot of participants and organization to designate an alternative metal as defacto store of wealth. But bitcoin is superior to all of them in terms of verification and fixed supply, so I think they would come over to the dark side as well

Re: New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets

#138
post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I read that gold actually outperformed the stock market since the end of the gold standard in the US (1971). I didn't really believe it , but it sort of did, depending on when you bought gold [0]. Not that gold is a good investment, but it does say something that its increased at ~7% a year since introduction of a completely fiat currency. I'm not smart enough to have a story to explain what that all means, but let's…

From Jan 1st 1971 to Dec 31st 2020, the US stock market grew by 10.91%/year CAGR if you include dividends which you should. 7.70%/year CAGR if you don’t include dividends. In that time frame, $1 has grown to $177.33. I did the math to find out what the melt value of a $10 1913 gold coin would be today in 2021. Over that more than 100 year time frame, the CAGR of gold is 5%/year. Since 10.91% is far higher than 5% or…

I don't disagree. I addressed this in my post. I don't claim to have a definitive claim that it has outperformed nor do I believe it has. But its curious that it's even up for debate. A fixed supply of something, basically a unit of account. If you denominate prices of "productive assets" in terms of gold, the return is considerably lower when compared to that of fiat.

Gold appreciation was ~0% from 1930-1970. Post fiat-currency it grew at 5-7%. That has to mean something...

Re: New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets

#139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How exactly does the Fifth Fleet back the dollar?

Ask Saddam Hussein, who tried to price Iraqi oil in Euros in 2000. Or Gaddafi, who was tolerated by western powers until he tried to introduce the pan-African gold Dinar and encourage oil producing nations to de-dollarize in favor of it.

> Or Gaddafi, who was tolerated by western powers until he tried to introduce the pan-African gold Dinar and encourage oil producing nations to de-dollarize in favor of it.

Ok, serious question here:

Can you actually point to me a statement where Gaddafi, or any official Libyan government statement for that matter, actually outlines anything approaching a concrete plan or concrete steps to the establishment of such a thing? When I try to follow links back to an actual source for this claim, I fail to end up at any reputable site reporting on a primary source here. Instead, the trails seem to end in sites that push very hard for a gold standard and I suspect have a strong bias towards inventing a hypothesis on unsupported facts that Western Globalists killed Gaddafi to keep the gold standard down.

I will point out that it is well-known that Gaddafi was a pan-Africanist, and my recollection is that he was very much in favor of the African Union following the European Union's example and introducing a single currency for the continent, and he made a few statements to that effect. But that's not the same as actually having any actual concrete plans, especially because these statements were made over a decade before Libya's civil war started.

Re: New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets

#140
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, they’re called companies.

Bravo, 10/10 response. Since you seem to be ignorant of this, Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities LLC and Enron were also "companies," so your response isn't as witty as you think.

I really think “MSFT, AAPL, TSLA” aren’t comparable to your examples.
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