One thing I find interesting in the analysis is the claim that crypto-currencies do not have effective short selling opportunities requiring a "long only" strategy. That is interesting as it seems like one of the few contracts that Etherium should provide, if one trusted any particular "stablecoin". Furthermore, it does seem that Binance (and probably others) do allow some shorting opportunities.
New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets
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Re: New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets
#42>the researchers examined the role of speculative behavior in cryptocurrency markets, that is, lottery-like demand Is this an industry-standard term? It seems like an awful definition and awful use of the word “lottery”.
My thought exactly. There's a crazy amount of speculation in real estate, stocks, and commodities, but I've never heard it called "lottery-like".
Because when you bet on the those lotteries with millions or billions of dollars it somehow transcends gambling into doing business.
Re: New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets
#43Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Have you ever tried to trade with someone outside of your country, it's not easy or cheap. Yes, it's easy and cheap
maybe for developed nations - that doesn't represent much of the world
So high tech crypto is the solution to making trading with the developing world easier? Aren’t these the same sorts of places which struggle to have reliable electricity, let alone internet access?
Re: New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets
#44It makes sense. In my experience the primary goal for most crypto holders is to be a part of a new elite. This is why the most popular currencies have a fixed supply. That way, if they're popular earlier adopters get to be a part of the elite. With such a premise it makes sense to treat crypto like the lottery as the gain/loss likelihood is very similar to say, Mega Millions. I do see value in a crypto that's pinned…
> My biggest concern is a fixed-supply currency gives no government the ability to provide stimulus if necessary.
That's a feature. Not a bug.
Re: New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets
#45It makes sense. In my experience the primary goal for most crypto holders is to be a part of a new elite. This is why the most popular currencies have a fixed supply. That way, if they're popular earlier adopters get to be a part of the elite. With such a premise it makes sense to treat crypto like the lottery as the gain/loss likelihood is very similar to say, Mega Millions. I do see value in a crypto that's pinned…
> My biggest concern is a fixed-supply currency gives no government the ability to provide stimulus if necessary.
Good, that's the intention.
Re: New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets
#46Earlier quoted context omitted.
The “store of wealth” excuse is pretty transparently just to lure greater fools after the crypto-is-money thing didn’t pan out. The only wealth that’s stored is the network of people pumping these things. And guess what: that network will move on to the next thing eventually.
The “store of wealth” is a rationalization of the fact that greedy miners have taken over and fossilized the B development.
I'm not sure what you mean by "B development"
Re: New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets
#47It's trivial. Just say any is pure speculation of thin air and you'll be right. There's no sense in the currently existing crypto currencies. They're all fiat money. Peter Schiff was right back then... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sgRGBNekFIw and he's still right now. https://twitter.com/peterschiff/status/1345427870546538509
Wow that Peter Schiff's April fools joke was perfectly timed for me clicking your links.
https://twitter.com/PeterSchiff/status/1377626254619328524 "I was wrong about Bitcoin"
Re: New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets
#48It's trivial. Just say any is pure speculation of thin air and you'll be right. There's no sense in the currently existing crypto currencies. They're all fiat money. Peter Schiff was right back then... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sgRGBNekFIw and he's still right now. https://twitter.com/peterschiff/status/1345427870546538509
I always feel like a fish out of the water when talking about money-related subjects, so I looked up what the actual definition of fiat money is, and followed a dozen or so different sources.
Unless I am mistaken, it seems like cryptocurrencies that currently exist can all be called fiduciary money but not fiat money, as the fiat term seems to tightly connect with government decrees and issuing. There might be a form of crypto out there officially issued or backed by decree by governments, but the major known ones aren't AFAIK. Do you have examples in mind?
(This short summary seems to correlate with all I've read: https://quickonomics.com/different-types-of-money/ )
If that is the case (crypto != fiat), then I would have trouble understanding what your argument is.
Re: New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets
#49Earlier quoted context omitted.
It is probably very similar when it is stocks that are nearing bankruptcy or otherwise have horrid fundamentals. If the stocks do have fundamentals and the PE ratio makes sense relative to the growth factor, then it isn't pure gambling.
The S&P hit 4,000 today, with a P/E ratio of about 40:1. On Jan 1st 2020 it had a P/E radio of 25:1 Does that make sense?
Given the past few months have seen conditions that led to abnormally low "E" that are not expected to be repeated, and at the same time the amount of cash available to inflate "P" increased dramatically... maybe?
Disclaimer: I know nothing
Re: New study detects lottery-like behavior in cryptocurrency markets
#50It makes sense. In my experience the primary goal for most crypto holders is to be a part of a new elite. This is why the most popular currencies have a fixed supply. That way, if they're popular earlier adopters get to be a part of the elite. With such a premise it makes sense to treat crypto like the lottery as the gain/loss likelihood is very similar to say, Mega Millions. I do see value in a crypto that's pinned…
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