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The end of Facebook

blogs.forbes.com

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Re: The end of Facebook

#41

Post by tomgallard »

dreamux wrote: post #6

I'm not the biggest fan of facebook, but this guy is completely unqualified to comment on the intricacies of long-term growth and sustainability in social media... just look at his profile: http://blogs.forbes.com/people/timworstall/ He has nothing to do with the technology industry. Also, he doesn't back up his rhetoric with data... this is an opinion piece and a flaky one at that.

Isn't the problem that no-one is currently qualified to comment on the long term potential growth or sustainability of social media? It simply hasn't been around long enough to make any comparisons with the past useful.

You're right, that there isn't much data, but the fact that user growth seems to have at least stalled (if not started to decrease) in the richest markets in which Facebook has a presence has got to be a worry.

Assuming that the yearly value of a user is roughly proportional to national GDP per capita, Facebook needs to gain 40 users in India to make up for every one it loses in the US.

Re: The end of Facebook

#42

Post by codeup »

bxr wrote: post #39
JonnieCache wrote: post #3

This is borne out by my experience. A slowly increasing number of my friends are cutting down their use, and eventually leaving. This might just be due to my cohort of friends getting older, but the article claims it is a general trend. What is definitely true, is that nobody I know feels anything positive about facebook, at all. It is seen simply as a sinister, addictive[1] necessary evil. This is the case regardles…

A slowly increasing number of my friends are cutting down their use, and eventually leaving. I know what they say about the plural of antidote, but I've personally noticed the same. I use it less, and when I do use it, I notice the people I care about on facebook are using it less too. Everything you say mirrors the response to facebook I've been seeing. Its no longer a toy, its just that thing you have and slowly wo…

I agree, but it's interesting that Google is doing so much more than just search today and they're not inviting the same response. Is it because the main search service has stayed the same without suffering from feature bloat?

Re: The end of Facebook

#43

Post by MatthewPhillips »

codeup wrote: post #42
bxr wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A slowly increasing number of my friends are cutting down their use, and eventually leaving. I know what they say about the plural of antidote, but I've personally noticed the same. I use it less, and when I do use it, I notice the people I care about on facebook are using it less too. Everything you say mirrors the response to facebook I've been seeing. Its no longer a toy, its just that thing you have and slowly wo…

I agree, but it's interesting that Google is doing so much more than just search today and they're not inviting the same response. Is it because the main search service has stayed the same without suffering from feature bloat?

Google never tried to change its core product the way Facebook has. Facebook started as a private network of close friends and they've changed it to an open network of friends, family, and the world. As much as they've changed about the product, they cannot change users' perceptions, which have remained the same throughout. They've basically caused their users to suffer from cognitive dissonance about what Facebook is vs. what they expect it to be.

Re: The end of Facebook

#44

Post by CrabDude »

Is it just me, or does this article read like a jr high school student wrote it? How many incomplete sentences and how much broken grammar can you put in a baseless article, and from Forbes?

Re: The end of Facebook

#45

Post by gravityiscool »

[deleted] wrote: post #37
JonnieCache wrote: post #3

This is borne out by my experience. A slowly increasing number of my friends are cutting down their use, and eventually leaving. This might just be due to my cohort of friends getting older, but the article claims it is a general trend. What is definitely true, is that nobody I know feels anything positive about facebook, at all. It is seen simply as a sinister, addictive[1] necessary evil. This is the case regardles…

[deleted]

I like playing around with different noun substitutions. You 'Facestalk' girls you like. Posting something stupid/douchey gives me 'Faceshame'. Talking bullshit with someone on chat is 'Facebanter'... stupid Facebook jokes are 'Facejokes'.

yeah... it goes on. Have you heard of 'fraping'? It's facebook raping, when you leave your laptop open and a friend posts an embarassing status update. Usually something about loving poop or cocks, you know.

Re: The end of Facebook

#47

Post by haakon »

IgorPartola wrote: post #13
wccrawford wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, because while I can see it's fad-ish, it also serves a need. My friends use the event invites to schedule their parties and it's really easy, since everyone already has a facebook account. If I tried to get them to switch to another party planning service, I know the answer will be 'It's too hard to get everyone to make an account there. We've already got accounts here.'

I have seen the RSVP scale slide from yes means yes to yes means maybe, maybe means no and no means hell no. Your group of friends may be different, but mine tends to either use email or do invites in person. From this point of view FB is useless to me.

I RSVP'ed to a demonstration against Norway's new data retention law, to take place in my town's major square. Several thousand people had RSVP'ed "yes". I was actually quite psyched at the tought of our own "Tahrir Square" moment. Ultimately, perhaps a total of 100 people showed up. The law passed.

Re: The end of Facebook

#48

Post by jdp23 »

JonnieCache wrote: post #3

This is borne out by my experience. A slowly increasing number of my friends are cutting down their use, and eventually leaving. This might just be due to my cohort of friends getting older, but the article claims it is a general trend. What is definitely true, is that nobody I know feels anything positive about facebook, at all. It is seen simply as a sinister, addictive[1] necessary evil. This is the case regardles…

Well said, and I'm seeing the same behavior and attitudes with friends and acquaintances. The high school and college students I've talked to recently have similar feelings about Facebook as well.

There are a lot of emerging social networks (Hibe, Pidder, Necter) who emphasize privacy a lot more than Facebook and don't have the baggage -- as well as the whole open source Diaspora/AppleSeed/OneSocialWeb/etc. distributed social network movement. True, right now none of them have Facebook's "everybody's there" advantage. But people's dislike for Facebook is so pervasive that I really wonder how much longer they'll continue to be so successful.

Re: The end of Facebook

#49

Post by JonnieCache »

codeup wrote: post #42
bxr wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A slowly increasing number of my friends are cutting down their use, and eventually leaving. I know what they say about the plural of antidote, but I've personally noticed the same. I use it less, and when I do use it, I notice the people I care about on facebook are using it less too. Everything you say mirrors the response to facebook I've been seeing. Its no longer a toy, its just that thing you have and slowly wo…

I agree, but it's interesting that Google is doing so much more than just search today and they're not inviting the same response. Is it because the main search service has stayed the same without suffering from feature bloat?

Google makes separate products. They're well integrated, but you can use gmail without ever seeing maps, and vice-versa.

Facebook on the other hand is monolithic, and that gives it a much greater appearance of omnipresent intrusiveness.

Re: The end of Facebook

#50

Post by narkee »

dreamux wrote: post #6

I'm not the biggest fan of facebook, but this guy is completely unqualified to comment on the intricacies of long-term growth and sustainability in social media... just look at his profile: http://blogs.forbes.com/people/timworstall/ He has nothing to do with the technology industry. Also, he doesn't back up his rhetoric with data... this is an opinion piece and a flaky one at that.

Appeal to authority is a logical fallacy.
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