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The end of Facebook

blogs.forbes.com

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Re: The end of Facebook

#11

Post by wccrawford »

trobertson wrote: post #7
wccrawford wrote: post #2

I don't buy it. There's no Facebook-killer at the moment to drive these people away, and they aren't going to just give up on social networks... So instead, I think it's something else. Facebook closing invalid accounts, or something.

Would you be opposed to considering the idea that the "social network" fad is nearing its end? We devs tend to see social as though it were a silver bullet for our apps; "Make it social, people love being social!" Maybe people are just rediscovering hanging out in person. I know that I, personally, get no value out of Facebook, whereas I get a ton out of hanging out with people. One other thing that may be contributi…

Yes, because while I can see it's fad-ish, it also serves a need. My friends use the event invites to schedule their parties and it's really easy, since everyone already has a facebook account.

If I tried to get them to switch to another party planning service, I know the answer will be 'It's too hard to get everyone to make an account there. We've already got accounts here.'

Re: The end of Facebook

#12

Post by corin_ »

JonoW wrote: post #5
wccrawford wrote: post #2

I don't buy it. There's no Facebook-killer at the moment to drive these people away, and they aren't going to just give up on social networks... So instead, I think it's something else. Facebook closing invalid accounts, or something.

Agreed, currently there no real competitor to facebook, if people are closing their accounts its because they want to remove themselves from social networking all together (my one friend did this) rather than move to a different service. Facebook is so ubiquitous now, it's like email. It will take one hell of a competitor to kill it.

Yes and no - personally I closed my Facebook account while becoming much more active on Twitter. No, it wasn't a direct replacement for me, and my reasons for using both services were very different, but the fact that I don't find Facebook useful doesn't mean I don't find any type of "social networking" useful.

Re: The end of Facebook

#13

Post by IgorPartola »

wccrawford wrote: post #11
trobertson wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would you be opposed to considering the idea that the "social network" fad is nearing its end? We devs tend to see social as though it were a silver bullet for our apps; "Make it social, people love being social!" Maybe people are just rediscovering hanging out in person. I know that I, personally, get no value out of Facebook, whereas I get a ton out of hanging out with people. One other thing that may be contributi…

Yes, because while I can see it's fad-ish, it also serves a need. My friends use the event invites to schedule their parties and it's really easy, since everyone already has a facebook account. If I tried to get them to switch to another party planning service, I know the answer will be 'It's too hard to get everyone to make an account there. We've already got accounts here.'

I have seen the RSVP scale slide from yes means yes to yes means maybe, maybe means no and no means hell no. Your group of friends may be different, but mine tends to either use email or do invites in person. From this point of view FB is useless to me.

Re: The end of Facebook

#14

Post by MatthewPhillips »

JonnieCache wrote: post #3

This is borne out by my experience. A slowly increasing number of my friends are cutting down their use, and eventually leaving. This might just be due to my cohort of friends getting older, but the article claims it is a general trend. What is definitely true, is that nobody I know feels anything positive about facebook, at all. It is seen simply as a sinister, addictive[1] necessary evil. This is the case regardles…

Facebook needs to take a lesson from what has happened to Microsoft. Microsoft is making its best products ever but the reputation of Windows is so soured that it doesn't matter. People associate Windows with viruses and crashes. Now people use Windows because they have to, not because they want to.

Facebook is in danger of suffering the same thing. Like you, I have a lot of non-technical friends who feel uneasy about Facebook; they just don't trust it. They feel the games are scammy. They find that they can access their pictures when logged out. They use it any ways. But increasingly, they don't like it.

Re: The end of Facebook

#15

Post by JonoW »

coliveira wrote: post #10
JonoW wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed, currently there no real competitor to facebook, if people are closing their accounts its because they want to remove themselves from social networking all together (my one friend did this) rather than move to a different service. Facebook is so ubiquitous now, it's like email. It will take one hell of a competitor to kill it.

I agree there is no alternative, but I think Facebook can go as quickly as it came. My experience is from using Orkut in Brazil. In 2005 Orkut was as hot as Facebook is now in the US, everyone was there. Nowadays everybody is moving to Facebook. I suspect the same thing will happen again 5 years from now.

I normally compare the odds of unseating Facebook as the same as unseating Google for search. It might happen at some point, but it will be exceptionally difficult. I think FB is so much more ingrained than any other social network has been before, say MySpace or Orkut. I really hope we do see some competition in the future.

Re: The end of Facebook

#16

Post by MatthewPhillips »

JonoW wrote: post #5
wccrawford wrote: post #2

I don't buy it. There's no Facebook-killer at the moment to drive these people away, and they aren't going to just give up on social networks... So instead, I think it's something else. Facebook closing invalid accounts, or something.

Agreed, currently there no real competitor to facebook, if people are closing their accounts its because they want to remove themselves from social networking all together (my one friend did this) rather than move to a different service. Facebook is so ubiquitous now, it's like email. It will take one hell of a competitor to kill it.

Of course there are alternatives. Twitter is an alternative (not saying its a killer though). An alternative doesn't (and really shouldn't) have to contain all of the same features or work in the same way. It's just something that you use instead of. The Windows killer turned out to be "The Internet". Although it's a different beast, it moved Windows to the background. The Facebook killer might very well be a protocol for sharing things on the net. Or simply more sites adding their own social features. Or something no one has thought of yet.

Re: The end of Facebook

#17

Post by tritchey »

My comment would be that the author is conflating growth in users and page views to revenue growth. While the two are very highly correlated, they are not the same thing. How Facebook monetizes its users and page views doesn't have to be a 1:1 relationship. The question should be how Facebook will derive ever more revenue from each user over time. Slowing user growth is certainly an easy proxy to use in lieu of real revenue numbers, but it is a gross oversimplification.

Re: The end of Facebook

#18

Post by DrJokepu »

JonoW wrote: post #5
wccrawford wrote: post #2

I don't buy it. There's no Facebook-killer at the moment to drive these people away, and they aren't going to just give up on social networks... So instead, I think it's something else. Facebook closing invalid accounts, or something.

Agreed, currently there no real competitor to facebook, if people are closing their accounts its because they want to remove themselves from social networking all together (my one friend did this) rather than move to a different service. Facebook is so ubiquitous now, it's like email. It will take one hell of a competitor to kill it.

It's usually not competitors that can hurt or even kill a product, it's substitute goods. Cart manufacturers in the early 20th century didn't see their business diminishing because of the sudden emergence of a better cart manufacturer, it has happened because of the invention of the automobile.

Similarly, if something threatens Facebook's position, it's quite possible that it will be a substitute product, not a direct competitor. A significant substitute product of Facebook is real life interactions with your friends, for example.

Re: The end of Facebook

#19

Post by JonoW »

MatthewPhillips wrote: post #16
JonoW wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed, currently there no real competitor to facebook, if people are closing their accounts its because they want to remove themselves from social networking all together (my one friend did this) rather than move to a different service. Facebook is so ubiquitous now, it's like email. It will take one hell of a competitor to kill it.

Of course there are alternatives. Twitter is an alternative (not saying its a killer though). An alternative doesn't (and really shouldn't) have to contain all of the same features or work in the same way. It's just something that you use instead of. The Windows killer turned out to be "The Internet". Although it's a different beast, it moved Windows to the background. The Facebook killer might very well be a protoco…

I don't see Twitter as a competitor, for me they're too different and I don't see any problem using both of them parallel. Comparing Windows apps to web-apps; I think for the end-user they're conceptually very similar, just delivered differently. Is GMail that different from Outlook to the user? I think your average person will want something at least a little similar to Facebook; I don't think Twitter is that thing.

Re: The end of Facebook

#20

Post by dagw »

DrJokepu wrote: post #18
JonoW wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed, currently there no real competitor to facebook, if people are closing their accounts its because they want to remove themselves from social networking all together (my one friend did this) rather than move to a different service. Facebook is so ubiquitous now, it's like email. It will take one hell of a competitor to kill it.

It's usually not competitors that can hurt or even kill a product, it's substitute goods. Cart manufacturers in the early 20th century didn't see their business diminishing because of the sudden emergence of a better cart manufacturer, it has happened because of the invention of the automobile. Similarly, if something threatens Facebook's position, it's quite possible that it will be a substitute product, not a direc…

A significant substitute product of Facebook is real life interactions with your friends, for example.

I think that's totally missing the point. I don't think anyone uses Facebook as a substitute for real life interaction. I imagine that most people use it partially to coordinate the meeting up with said friends and partially to interact with people whom, due geography or various life circumstances, it is infeasible to meet up with in real life. I doubt there are many people who'd rather sit at home and read their friend's Facebook updates if they have the option to pop around the corner and meet them face to face.

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