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The end of Facebook

blogs.forbes.com

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Re: The end of Facebook

#21

Post by jetz »

First wave of SNs were aimed at dating as the lure (Friendster). Second wave of SNs were/are aimed at social sharing of everything and anything with everybody and anybody (FB). Third wave of SNs are aimed/will be aimed at "real" social sharing of everything and anything with only people you choose (Tusulog.com, our start-up).

We're focused on one main thought: you don't, by default, socialize with all your friends plus "acquaintances" at once. Just impossible. When you're with your family you socialize in the context of family. You don't talk about the crazy party last Saturday with your family. This is the idea we focus on.

People return to FB because of inertia basically, not necessarily because they need to. That's why they start to whine and mainstream media have been reflecting this situation.

Re: The end of Facebook

#23

Post by DrJokepu »

dagw wrote: post #20
DrJokepu wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's usually not competitors that can hurt or even kill a product, it's substitute goods. Cart manufacturers in the early 20th century didn't see their business diminishing because of the sudden emergence of a better cart manufacturer, it has happened because of the invention of the automobile. Similarly, if something threatens Facebook's position, it's quite possible that it will be a substitute product, not a direc…

A significant substitute product of Facebook is real life interactions with your friends, for example. I think that's totally missing the point. I don't think anyone uses Facebook as a substitute for real life interaction. I imagine that most people use it partially to coordinate the meeting up with said friends and partially to interact with people whom, due geography or various life circumstances, it is infeasible…

I know way too many people personally who do exactly that. I'll let other decide if it's a good or a bad thing, but in my experience an awful lot of people use social networks instead of real life interactions. I think those of us who live far away from our friends and family are in minority.

Re: The end of Facebook

#24

Post by possibilistic »

rkwz wrote: post #4

So, what problems do facebook/social networks solve? * sharing photos * keeping in touch with friends and families and getting the latest updates from them * events * games * sharing links and stuff and all these things from one place! is there any other site/technology that provides all these benefits in one place?

The problem is, after an extended use maybe we feel sick of it all. Facebook was new and fresh when it arrived, but now it's beginning to feel like an overstayed welcome. They have accomplished the goal of making life seem, in a way, commoditized, and that makes me feel like I never want to use such a service again.

I don't think social networks are going to be entirely displaced, maybe just the ones that attempt to mirror your personal life. I think it's a kind of impedance mismatch issue--a kind of uncanny valley vibe that they give off. After doing it so long, it just feels so artificial and flaky.

I know everyone doesn't have such negative thoughts about Facebook, but I also know I'm not the only one who feels this way right now. I can't see what they or anyone could do to fix this problem, but I know a solution isn't out of the realm of possibility either.

I predict future successful social networks will be somewhat like HN or reddit--semi-anonymous, with no real connection to real life. If they can surround you with peers clustered around your interest profile, perhaps we could grow organic communities around professions and hobbies that dynamically or elastically determine membership and open channels of communication (as opposed to the current process of self-selection and direct messaging). I don't know, I'm rambling now.

Re: The end of Facebook

#25

Post by rkwz »

possibilistic wrote: post #24
rkwz wrote: post #4

So, what problems do facebook/social networks solve? * sharing photos * keeping in touch with friends and families and getting the latest updates from them * events * games * sharing links and stuff and all these things from one place! is there any other site/technology that provides all these benefits in one place?

The problem is, after an extended use maybe we feel sick of it all. Facebook was new and fresh when it arrived, but now it's beginning to feel like an overstayed welcome. They have accomplished the goal of making life seem, in a way, commoditized, and that makes me feel like I never want to use such a service again. I don't think social networks are going to be entirely displaced, maybe just the ones that attempt to…

>I predict future successful social networks will be somewhat like HN or reddit--semi-anonymous, with no real connection to real life. If they can surround you with peers clustered around your interest profile, perhaps we could grow organic communities around professions and hobbies that dynamically or elastically determine membership and open channels of communication (as opposed to the current process of self-selection and direct messaging). I don't know, I'm rambling now.

Isn't this problem already solved by discussion boards? :D Or is your idea different from them in some way? Please feel free to share your views.

Re: The end of Facebook

#26

Post by jetz »

DrJokepu wrote: post #18
JonoW wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed, currently there no real competitor to facebook, if people are closing their accounts its because they want to remove themselves from social networking all together (my one friend did this) rather than move to a different service. Facebook is so ubiquitous now, it's like email. It will take one hell of a competitor to kill it.

It's usually not competitors that can hurt or even kill a product, it's substitute goods. Cart manufacturers in the early 20th century didn't see their business diminishing because of the sudden emergence of a better cart manufacturer, it has happened because of the invention of the automobile. Similarly, if something threatens Facebook's position, it's quite possible that it will be a substitute product, not a direc…

I agree that an incumbent is very hard to be beaten head-on. Examples: Google on search. Microsoft on OS or Office.

Over time monopolistic players start to be everything for everybody. This may be just fine but in addition to that they promote bloat at the expense of their main product's usability. That's when new players emerge.

Re: The end of Facebook

#28

Post by cageface »

choko wrote: post #9
wccrawford wrote: post #2

I don't buy it. There's no Facebook-killer at the moment to drive these people away, and they aren't going to just give up on social networks... So instead, I think it's something else. Facebook closing invalid accounts, or something.

Why wouldn't people just give up on social networks? I think a lot of people initially sign up because a lot of their real-life friends do, use it for a while, and then get bored. To me, sites like facebook just become a hassle after a while. I'm sure I'm not the only one who feels the same way.

Agreed. I like spending face-to-face time with my friends not so much because I expect them to say something really new or surprising; we know each other too well at this point for that. I just happen to enjoy their company. A firehose of trivia from their daily lives is just an annoying distraction.

Re: The end of Facebook

#29

Post by cageface »

corin_ wrote: post #12
JonoW wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed, currently there no real competitor to facebook, if people are closing their accounts its because they want to remove themselves from social networking all together (my one friend did this) rather than move to a different service. Facebook is so ubiquitous now, it's like email. It will take one hell of a competitor to kill it.

Yes and no - personally I closed my Facebook account while becoming much more active on Twitter. No, it wasn't a direct replacement for me, and my reasons for using both services were very different, but the fact that I don't find Facebook useful doesn't mean I don't find any type of "social networking" useful.

I'm finding Twitter of at least some limited use too. The big difference is that I don't follow my "friends", I follow people that know a lot about things I find professionally and artistically interesting, most of whom I'll probably never meet in person.

Re: The end of Facebook

#30

Post by cageface »

wccrawford wrote: post #11
trobertson wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would you be opposed to considering the idea that the "social network" fad is nearing its end? We devs tend to see social as though it were a silver bullet for our apps; "Make it social, people love being social!" Maybe people are just rediscovering hanging out in person. I know that I, personally, get no value out of Facebook, whereas I get a ton out of hanging out with people. One other thing that may be contributi…

Yes, because while I can see it's fad-ish, it also serves a need. My friends use the event invites to schedule their parties and it's really easy, since everyone already has a facebook account. If I tried to get them to switch to another party planning service, I know the answer will be 'It's too hard to get everyone to make an account there. We've already got accounts here.'

Facebook is going to have to be a lot more than Evite++ to justify its valuation in the long-term though.
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