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U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

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Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#161

Post by javert »

aphextron wrote: post #38
javert wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We can only hope for a diplomatic resolution That makes it seem like you want China to take Taiwan uncontested. I hope for either no conflict at all, or for Taiwan's allies to help defend it.

>"That makes it seem like you want China to take Taiwan uncontested." I, like any sane person, would like to avoid WWIII. It's easy to play armchair general with no skin in the game. But the reality is that there would be no support in the US for sending American soldiers to die for Taiwan. Let alone the nuclear ramifications. If Beijing decides to take it, we will sit here and watch. The same way we do currently as…

This seems like a snide, evasive response. I prefer honest and direct.

Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#162

Post by ceilingcorner »

dogma1138 wrote: post #147
ceilingcorner wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But Russia was already leasing it from Ukraine. Ultimately Crimea is of limited strategic value for anyone other than Russia. The same cannot be said for Taiwan.

Yes but if you were Russia and Ukraine was signaling that it wishes to join the EU and NATO at that point how long would you be able to rely on that lease? This is the same reason why Russia got involved in Syria, it has only a handful of warm water ports and essentially all of them are at a precarious position where they ship need to traverse potentially hostile choke points.

Yes I’m just saying that from a realpolitik perspective, nothing really changed for the rest of the world when Russia annexed Crimea. Russia leased the port before, now they own it. Hence the lack of real response other than some sanctions.

Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#163

Post by randmeerkat »

adrianmonk wrote: post #106
aphextron wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>"That makes it seem like you want China to take Taiwan uncontested." I, like any sane person, would like to avoid WWIII. It's easy to play armchair general with no skin in the game. But the reality is that there would be no support in the US for sending American soldiers to die for Taiwan. Let alone the nuclear ramifications. If Beijing decides to take it, we will sit here and watch. The same way we do currently as…

> no support in the US for sending American soldiers to die for Taiwan There could also be support in the US for keeping China from expanding its power to the point where it can rival the US. That is, fighting against China rather than for Taiwan. I'm not saying that would necessarily be enough either, but people are more willing to die to protect their own country's interests than to help someone else. EDIT: Not sur…

I’ve noticed the downvotes too, it’s happened anytime I’ve said anything critical of China, even if it was constructive.

Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#164

Post by hilbertseries »

PureParadigm wrote: post #41

Due to the one child policy, China is going to experience a demographic collapse this decade as more people retire than are available to replace them in the workforce. So the 2020s is the pivotal decade as China nears the height of its power. The CCP is aware of this and knows that if they are ever going to take Taiwan, it would ideally be this decade. Politically, it will also need a victory as the Chinese economy i…

The solution is simple, give Taiwan nukes.

Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#165

Post by riku_iki »

hilbertseries wrote: post #158
riku_iki wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> we will sit here and watch I think there will be very significant economic escalation. US + EU and probably some local countries (India, Vietnam Indonesia) will just ban all Chinese trade, maybe force Japan and SK do the same. China may get some Taiwanese fabs, but it's only single cell in supply chain, and may be rendered useless without integration into global economy.

> will just ban all Chinese trade This can’t be done without triggering a depression and causing massive shortages. The economies are too connected. We could add more sanctions, increase tariffs look at better trade deals to encourage buying non China. But the idea of just banning Chinese trade is fantasy.

> The economies are too connected

US export to China represents only 6% of total (100B out of 1.5T) and import is 18% (439B out of 2.38T). Most of import is likely not critical and can easily be substituted by domestic manufacturers, or manufacturers from other countries.

Source of data: https://oec.world/en/profile/country/usa

Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#166

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

magicsmoke wrote: post #151
sneak wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It appears to have worked well for its intended purpose. For the record, the US imprisons its ethnic minorities in inhumane conditions (including labor camps and forced sterilization, just like China) at a per-capita rate 17x higher than China does. I think the disparity in public perception (in the US; I can't speak to China as I'm not there) of the two superpowers is telling.

The disparity is ridiculously large as someone who reads zhihu for Chinese practice. It's like looking at two alien worlds. The biggest difference at least to me is that US social media really drinks the coolaid on how human rights and liberal ideas are the main drivers behind America's political decisions, that America should be a force for good that has a responsibility to vanquish evil around the world, and that e…

I feel like these stories of inevitable civilizational conflict have to be weighed against the reality that the US has millions of Chinese-born immigrants who get along just fine. Immigrants are of course not a randomly selected population, but the idea that China is civilizationally incapable of believing in universal ideals or getting along with Americans seems like a CCP self-defense mechanism more than a truly defensible thesis.

Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#167

Post by dogma1138 »

ceilingcorner wrote: post #162
dogma1138 wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes but if you were Russia and Ukraine was signaling that it wishes to join the EU and NATO at that point how long would you be able to rely on that lease? This is the same reason why Russia got involved in Syria, it has only a handful of warm water ports and essentially all of them are at a precarious position where they ship need to traverse potentially hostile choke points.

Yes I’m just saying that from a realpolitik perspective, nothing really changed for the rest of the world when Russia annexed Crimea. Russia leased the port before, now they own it. Hence the lack of real response other than some sanctions.

It’s more that no one will go to war over Ukraine but they might go over T(aiwan)SMC.

Also US political ties to Taiwan are far stronger than to Ukraine these date back to WW2 and even earlier technically.

Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#168

Post by ckqwerty »

Such boilerplate rhetoric is usually a diversion from other embarrassing issues.

In this case it could be a distraction from the cotton plucking situation in China, which could lead to further scrutiny in other areas and might inconvenience Biden's Silicon Valley pals.

This could be the Democrat's version of Trumps "Little Rocket Man" storm in a teacup.

Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#169

Post by leereeves »

hilbertseries wrote: post #164
PureParadigm wrote: post #41

Due to the one child policy, China is going to experience a demographic collapse this decade as more people retire than are available to replace them in the workforce. So the 2020s is the pivotal decade as China nears the height of its power. The CCP is aware of this and knows that if they are ever going to take Taiwan, it would ideally be this decade. Politically, it will also need a victory as the Chinese economy i…

The solution is simple, give Taiwan nukes.

I think Taiwan, one of the most technologically advanced nations in the world, could make their own nukes if they wanted them.

Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#170

Post by leereeves »

summerlight wrote: post #137

Let's assess its feasibility first. In the point of the China military view, a significant portion of the Taiwan island occupation must be done before the US intervention. And their limited amphibious attack capability complicates the problem. Taiwan has 200k standing army and 250k more reserve forces, thus China probably needs to deploy at least 500k, preferably more than 1M of its army into Taiwan within a week or…

> China probably needs to deploy at least 500k, preferably more than 1M of its army into Taiwan within a week or less.

To give that historical perspective, about 160k Allied troops landed in Normandy on D-Day.

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