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U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

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Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#151

Post by magicsmoke »

sneak wrote: post #109
gspr wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The anti-China rhetoric and propaganda in the USA has been steadily ramping up over the last 3-5 years as well, for better or worse. I don't think this is an accident or happenstance. Yeah, it's really strange that negative rhetoric has been ramping up against a government that is now running full-blown ethnic concentration camps in Xinjiang, is flagrantly stomping on the democratic rights of the people of Hong Kon…

It appears to have worked well for its intended purpose. For the record, the US imprisons its ethnic minorities in inhumane conditions (including labor camps and forced sterilization, just like China) at a per-capita rate 17x higher than China does. I think the disparity in public perception (in the US; I can't speak to China as I'm not there) of the two superpowers is telling.

The disparity is ridiculously large as someone who reads zhihu for Chinese practice. It's like looking at two alien worlds.

The biggest difference at least to me is that US social media really drinks the coolaid on how human rights and liberal ideas are the main drivers behind America's political decisions, that America should be a force for good that has a responsibility to vanquish evil around the world, and that everyone naturally wants to live under America's image for the world. Chinese social media leans towards the world as a place where might makes right and ideals are just a cover for power games. The most popular posts I've seen are ones that point out American hypocrisy in their words and deeds. But more interestingly, every charitable action the US has taken towards China is portrayed as something that is ultimately self serving, and China's portrayed as a country that's been forced to accept the rules the US has imposed because of its historical weakness and is only now gaining the strength to push back against a global hegemon.

Of course, the ultimate decisions for war and peace lie with their leaders, but if you brought the populations of China and the US into the same room there would probably be a brawl in 15 minutes.

Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#152

Post by boomboomsubban »

Supermancho wrote: post #77
boomboomsubban wrote: post #12

Or "US Admirals in the Pacific use threat of Chinese attack on Taiwan to justify receiving billions more dollars." What a crock of shit. edit one of their given reasons for "fearing attack" is that Russia invaded Ukraine shortly after the Winter Olympics, and China has the Winter Olympics soon. The ulterior motive couldn't be more obvious.

> The ulterior motive couldn't be more obvious. You haven't explained it well enough to claim it's obvious. You think it's a money grab (of some sort)? or that the operations which were barely telling in 2015 ( https://thediplomat.com/2015/08/satellite-imagery-from-china... ) but of questionable efficacy in 2019 ( https://news.usni.org/2019/05/03/report-china-cant-execute-m... ) might all be a misunderstanding? The d…

Yes, the Pacific navy forces want a higher budget, and they're playing on the fears of Chinese attack to get it. Your list of training exercises and US reports claiming China couldn't invade Taiwan aren't really changing my opinion.

>There's a stated intent to enforce a "One China Policy" and that's not going to happen without a large-scale troop movement.

Or they enforce it by pretending Taiwan doesn't exist, like they have so far.

Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#153

Post by FpUser »

dfjgkl43 wrote: post #125
lmilcin wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not recognizing Taiwan doesn't make any sense unless you fear retaliation from China, which is exactly the point. People say US will save Taiwan from China? I call bullshit. If that was true US should have no trouble recognizing Taiwan which would be hopefully be start of the process of getting legitimacy Taiwan needs. I fully expect US to do nothing if China invades Taiwan. Mark my words.

If the US "fears" retaliation from red china, why are they selling weapons to the republic? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_China_Army#Equipme...

Heavily armed Taiwan can make China think twice before launching full scale attack. The US also makes money on those arms sales. And Taiwan can keep producing chips. And sell some of those chips to China for mutual benefit. Win win so far.

However if for whatever reasons China would go full scale on Taiwan I doubt the US would respond in kind. There is just too much risk of conflict turning into WWIII. The West may try to isolate China instead.

Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#154

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

summerlight wrote: post #137

Let's assess its feasibility first. In the point of the China military view, a significant portion of the Taiwan island occupation must be done before the US intervention. And their limited amphibious attack capability complicates the problem. Taiwan has 200k standing army and 250k more reserve forces, thus China probably needs to deploy at least 500k, preferably more than 1M of its army into Taiwan within a week or…

The scale you're describing strikes me as simply not possible. 500k troops is a full quarter of the active PLA forces; I don't think they could even get into position for that invasion without weeks or months of obvious, undeniable preparations.

Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#155

Post by magicsmoke »

hyperion2010 wrote: post #139
magicsmoke wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm sure getting SF and LA nuked because the US lobbed a couple at Beijing and Shanghai first will play great with the electorate. It would also be the third time the US unilaterally used nuclear weapons first which I'm sure has no international political implications.

After reading this I had a sad chuckle when I realized that as described these events would actually play pretty darned well with a large swath of the electorate :/

Unfortunately, I can think of voter demographics that wouldn't mind having those four cities wiped off the map as well. We haven't had a total war in so long that we're like a child that doesn't know how much touching a hot stove could hurt.

Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#156

Post by tialaramex »

BingoAhoy wrote: post #115
kelnos wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you'd be hard pressed to find even a "bunch" of people in Taiwan who want to be under Beijing's rule, or would even consider that a tolerable compromise position. Certainly the country is far from unified on the idea of independence (though that particular movement has gotten stronger over the past couple decades), but culturally and politically, China and Taiwan are quite different and incompatible.

From my second hand laymen sources, there are in fact pro China advocates in Tiawan. Also surprisingly enough, there was a sizable loyalist group in the American 13 colonies who supported continued British colonialism.

One obvious reason to support the British is that the British don't have slavery. Sure enough, those slaves who fought for the British and were evacuated with British troops became free men.

Fighting for the colonists genuinely could mean you won, and then they said that's great, now back to the fields 'cos you won freedom for us not for you. Your great grandchildren might see freedom (after the Civil War) but you would not.

Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#157

Post by slowmovintarget »

tialaramex wrote: post #156
BingoAhoy wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From my second hand laymen sources, there are in fact pro China advocates in Tiawan. Also surprisingly enough, there was a sizable loyalist group in the American 13 colonies who supported continued British colonialism.

One obvious reason to support the British is that the British don't have slavery. Sure enough, those slaves who fought for the British and were evacuated with British troops became free men. Fighting for the colonists genuinely could mean you won, and then they said that's great, now back to the fields 'cos you won freedom for us not for you. Your great grandchildren might see freedom (after the Civil War) but you wo…

I'm not sure what history books you are reading, but Britain did, in fact, have slavery, and traded in slaves during the American Revolution. Trade of slaves was not outlawed in Britain until 1807 and ownership of slaves was not outlawed in Britain until 1833.

Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#158

Post by hilbertseries »

riku_iki wrote: post #53
aphextron wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>"That makes it seem like you want China to take Taiwan uncontested." I, like any sane person, would like to avoid WWIII. It's easy to play armchair general with no skin in the game. But the reality is that there would be no support in the US for sending American soldiers to die for Taiwan. Let alone the nuclear ramifications. If Beijing decides to take it, we will sit here and watch. The same way we do currently as…

> we will sit here and watch I think there will be very significant economic escalation. US + EU and probably some local countries (India, Vietnam Indonesia) will just ban all Chinese trade, maybe force Japan and SK do the same. China may get some Taiwanese fabs, but it's only single cell in supply chain, and may be rendered useless without integration into global economy.

> will just ban all Chinese trade

This can’t be done without triggering a depression and causing massive shortages. The economies are too connected. We could add more sanctions, increase tariffs look at better trade deals to encourage buying non China. But the idea of just banning Chinese trade is fantasy.

Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#159

Post by rdsubhas »

A lot of comments on military response. None of that really matters. The first is always a political and domestic response, and if that is not there (in the US), there will be no military response, only "stern condemnations".

Does the US have a political climate to support a defense of Taiwan (current R/D divide), and a domestic story to sell to US citizens on why it should intervene? What is their reason to defend it? That they're saving a free country? But it was never a country even to begin with.

Remember, even during the height of WW2, it needed a strong story to sell citizens on why it should intervene only after 2 years. Why would anyone believe the US would act sooner this time? And given Taiwan's size, it's definitely not going to take 2 years for an annexation. Basically after 2 years, "who cares"?

Re: U.S. fears China attack on Taiwan

#160

Post by slowmovintarget »

nradov wrote: post #127
aphextron wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>"That makes it seem like you want China to take Taiwan uncontested." I, like any sane person, would like to avoid WWIII. It's easy to play armchair general with no skin in the game. But the reality is that there would be no support in the US for sending American soldiers to die for Taiwan. Let alone the nuclear ramifications. If Beijing decides to take it, we will sit here and watch. The same way we do currently as…

Regardless of US public opinion, if an invasion starts then the US Navy will likely get involved. It might be very limited to start, but inevitably there will be an incident with significant US casualties. And then we'll retaliate and the conflict will escalate.

And while we've been asleep focusing on tearing ourselves apart with political divides, China's been preparing for exactly that. The reason war is likely is because they're ready for it. They think like Go players, not like Chess players.
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