71–80 of 236 posts
https://www.lawfareblog.com/whats-next-us-china-military-rel...
>Taiwan’s envoy to the United States called for "high alert" over Beijing's maritime coercion in the wake of the Coast Guard Law.
"An invasion of Taiwan, the self-governed island claimed by Beijing, would force the U.S. to decide whether to go to war with China to defend an implicit ally." The U.S. and its allies have two choices: 1. Officially recognize Taiwan as a country and make it an explicit ally. 2. Give Xi the green light to annex Taiwan. I don't see any middle ground here. Failure to do #1 is functionally the same as #2.
Instead, the current US position is strategic ambiguity. It is clear there is probably a line somewhere after which the US will intervene, but it is not clear to either side where this is. The goal is that this will deter both sides from changing the status quo, but as China becomes increasingly aggressive it may be necessary for the US to make its position more explicit.
This would be an exceptionally impatient move. If China’s economic machine continues to grow + mainland culture becomes more appealing, I could see Taiwan wanting to reunite in a few decades. It’s the same situation with Hong Kong. Had they initiated the changeover more slowly, there would be far less resistance. Instead, they ignited a movement that will probably never go away. Xi’s downfall will be his inability to…
There is a pretty big generational divide among the Taiwanese with the older generation still identifying as Chinese while the younger generation is adamantly identifying as Taiwanese. It's hard to imagine how a peaceful reunification can happen as more time goes on. Culturally the divide is becoming starker over time.
If you're to follow local media in China, the rhetoric around taking back Taiwan has grown stronger. Winnie the pooh also got a time limit extension on CCP leadership on the platform of a fully unified China. The signs are all there, though I just don't see how anything resembling a conventional warfare can happen there. The potential lives at risk are quite high and if the toll is that high it will be difficult to s…
The anti-China rhetoric and propaganda in the USA has been steadily ramping up over the last 3-5 years as well, for better or worse. I don't think this is an accident or happenstance. If China decided to take Taiwan in a small and local (and, let's be honest: extremely quick) action, there would be broad domestic support in the US for the US interfering.
And do Americans take that threat seriously enough to put actual lives on the line in a conflict that would incur serious costs to the US? We spent a lot of money in the Middle East, but in terms of lives lost it hasn’t been significant.
And in terms of economic impact, it would be devastating. I don’t know if Americans are prepared to go for years without electronics, or really anything else, to enable a protracted war. The stakes would be far greater for the US. And the cost to China is coming down with their emphasis on internal consumption and building a stable self-reliant economy.
Americans don’t like China, but not enough to not use TikTok, not enough to not buy Chinese, and certainly not enough to send their friends and family to die while they live through a massive economic recession and product shortages that make covid look like a joke. And that’s assuming Americans fully understand the politics in the region and why they should even care about China invading Taiwan, which feels like a big assumption considering (the more hawkish) half of the population will tell you our election was stolen by the party currently in power.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Very different situation. Just analyze them from a realpolitik perspective and not the “international law” one: - Crimeans are predominately Russian speakers and so the annexation was somewhat popular. Very little bloodshed or ongoing resistance. An invasion of Taiwan would not be popular among the Taiwanese. - Crimea and Ukraine are geopolitically not very useful. Taiwan is extremely useful, especially if it allows…
>Crimea and Ukraine are geopolitically not very useful. Taiwan is extremely useful, especially if it allows defense access to e.g. American warships. A large reason for the annexation of Ukraine was the question of control of Russia's only warm-water seaport at Sevastopol. I doubt Russia would have bothered (given the international consequences, i.e. sanctions and potential military intervention) if their access to t…
Ultimately Crimea is of limited strategic value for anyone other than Russia. The same cannot be said for Taiwan.
If you're to follow local media in China, the rhetoric around taking back Taiwan has grown stronger. Winnie the pooh also got a time limit extension on CCP leadership on the platform of a fully unified China. The signs are all there, though I just don't see how anything resembling a conventional warfare can happen there. The potential lives at risk are quite high and if the toll is that high it will be difficult to s…
I don't think they had or needed substantial local support in Crimea. A bunch of zealots will do.
Or "US Admirals in the Pacific use threat of Chinese attack on Taiwan to justify receiving billions more dollars." What a crock of shit. edit one of their given reasons for "fearing attack" is that Russia invaded Ukraine shortly after the Winter Olympics, and China has the Winter Olympics soon. The ulterior motive couldn't be more obvious.
You haven't explained it well enough to claim it's obvious. You think it's a money grab (of some sort)? or that the operations which were barely telling in 2015 (https://thediplomat.com/2015/08/satellite-imagery-from-china...) but of questionable efficacy in 2019 (https://news.usni.org/2019/05/03/report-china-cant-execute-m...) might all be a misunderstanding?
The danger is real enough (https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3980026, which may be a rumor) but Taiwan is sure enough to spend money on exercises (https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3076947/tai...) and the movements https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/china-simulates-island-in... which promoted a legitimate fear, that there would be an operation during the US election. https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4034710, obv that didn't happen.
There's a stated intent to enforce a "One China Policy" and that's not going to happen without a large-scale troop movement.
If you're to follow local media in China, the rhetoric around taking back Taiwan has grown stronger. Winnie the pooh also got a time limit extension on CCP leadership on the platform of a fully unified China. The signs are all there, though I just don't see how anything resembling a conventional warfare can happen there. The potential lives at risk are quite high and if the toll is that high it will be difficult to s…
There are many pro-China people living in Taiwan. So there is local support...
Earlier quoted context omitted.
>"That makes it seem like you want China to take Taiwan uncontested." I, like any sane person, would like to avoid WWIII. It's easy to play armchair general with no skin in the game. But the reality is that there would be no support in the US for sending American soldiers to die for Taiwan. Let alone the nuclear ramifications. If Beijing decides to take it, we will sit here and watch. The same way we do currently as…
I believe there would be strong domestic support in the US for committing the full strength of the US military to Taiwan’s defense. It’s not sending American soldiers to die for for Taiwan, its sending American soldiers to fight for western values and allies that America is legally obligated to defend.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Very different situation. Just analyze them from a realpolitik perspective and not the “international law” one: - Crimeans are predominately Russian speakers and so the annexation was somewhat popular. Very little bloodshed or ongoing resistance. An invasion of Taiwan would not be popular among the Taiwanese. - Crimea and Ukraine are geopolitically not very useful. Taiwan is extremely useful, especially if it allows…
>Crimea and Ukraine are geopolitically not very useful. Taiwan is extremely useful, especially if it allows defense access to e.g. American warships. A large reason for the annexation of Ukraine was the question of control of Russia's only warm-water seaport at Sevastopol. I doubt Russia would have bothered (given the international consequences, i.e. sanctions and potential military intervention) if their access to t…