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Solar Is Cheapest Electricity in History, U.S. DOE Aims to Cut Costs 60% by 2030

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81–90 of 257 posts

Re: Solar Is Cheapest Electricity in History, U.S. DOE Aims to Cut Costs 60% by 2030

#81
post #68
post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nobody needs 1 full day of storage.

One could imagine a series of cloudy windless days in the northern latitudes during the winter. Perhaps a large enough gird solves that problem? I have no clue.

One would not use batteries for the "rare, but prolonged" storage use case. You'd want something with lower capital cost, even if it were much less efficient. For example: hydrogen burned in turbines.

Re: Solar Is Cheapest Electricity in History, U.S. DOE Aims to Cut Costs 60% by 2030

#82

If solar were free, but we still needed to pay for battery storage, how would it then compare in cost to fuel-based alternatives (fossil fuel, nuclear etc)?

https://model.energy/

Play with the assumptions and find out.

Re: Solar Is Cheapest Electricity in History, U.S. DOE Aims to Cut Costs 60% by 2030

#83
post #24
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is the typical efficiency of a charge-discharge cycle?

It's relatively high, the problem is that building new dams is an environmental disaster, and existing dams are two orders of magnitude below needed capacity. Also, hydro dams kill a lot of people when they have accidents.

Building new dams is problematic only if they are built on rivers. But pumped hydro doesn't have to be on rivers.

Re: Solar Is Cheapest Electricity in History, U.S. DOE Aims to Cut Costs 60% by 2030

#84
post #9

If solar were free, but we still needed to pay for battery storage, how would it then compare in cost to fuel-based alternatives (fossil fuel, nuclear etc)?

Would need $20/KWh battery storage to be competitive with nuclear for baseload according to https://www.cell.com/joule/fulltext/S2542-4351(19)30300-9 At the moment, we're at about $800/KWh.

Using batteries for all storage use cases is bad engineering. Hydrogen can be stored underground for $1/kWh of energy storage capacity (there is also a per-kW cost, but it is independent of the size of the underground storage caverns). Use that (burned in turbines) instead of batteries for the rare correlated outages of solar/wind, and the cost goes down.

Re: Solar Is Cheapest Electricity in History, U.S. DOE Aims to Cut Costs 60% by 2030

#85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The factor that drives up price for grid level storage is scale. Only ~300 GWh worth of batteries is produced globally each year. The world uses 2.5 TWh of electricity each hour. If anyone tries to install battery storage at a significant scale, demand will vastly outstrip supply and drive prices up.

Assuming there aren't economies of scale. Demand for solar had gone way up in recent decades (e.g. in germany, before it was cheap), and the price subsequently went down.

It's not clear batteries will do the same. While there's been effort to make batteries less reliant on scarce natural resources and mining, there's no guarantee we really get there. If we don't, price can be expected to go up, not down, with scale.

I would bet on price going down slightly with scale, but one can't really tell now what will happen: it might go up a lot, it might go down a lot, or it might stay flat.

Re: Solar Is Cheapest Electricity in History, U.S. DOE Aims to Cut Costs 60% by 2030

#86
post #2

This is good to hear. I assume location must play a large part in this? Solar must be more cost-effective in, say, the Mojave desert, than it is in Alaska. I sometimes wonder if the widespread adoption of solar is going to have an environmental impact that isn't immediately apparent. Every solar panel you put on the ground is going to take up solar energy that could otherwise be absorbed by a plant, which in turn mea…

Look at the solution you get for Alaska in https://model.energy/

It's a combination of solar, wind, and hydrogen (with a little battery storage).

Re: Solar Is Cheapest Electricity in History, U.S. DOE Aims to Cut Costs 60% by 2030

#87

What if instead of pulling carbon above ground, we inject oxygen underground, produce electricity and CO2 below ground and then leave the CO2 down there. Has anyone tried this?

This is more or less what post-combustion capture carbon-capture-and-storage plants do, with the minor detail that they do the actual combustion above ground instead of below ground. But the inputs and outputs are as you describe: oxygen from the air, fossil fuels from underground, CO₂ outputs injected back underground, heat outputs sent to somewhere unspecified, typically the air.

CCS power stations are substantially more expensive than the usual kind of fossil-fuel power station, and they are generally considered to be economically uncompetitive.

It's probably better to do the actual combustion aboveground in many cases—although it makes your power plants easier to blow up with bombs, it also makes them enormously easier to build and maintain, and much less dangerous to work in when nobody is trying to blow them up.

Re: Solar Is Cheapest Electricity in History, U.S. DOE Aims to Cut Costs 60% by 2030

#88
post #19

It doesn't matter that solar itself is cheap, it still needs backup plants which are the reason Germany has the highest electricity prices - world-wide. > https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/electricity_prices/ It's really strange that users on HN keep rehashing the myth that solar and wind energy will result in lower electricity prices for consumers - they won't, never. Even if solar and wind energy was free, consume…

Cost of a new nuclear powerplant: $10,000/kW

Cost of a simple cycle gas turbine powerplant: $400/kW (combined cycle, $1000/kW)

Go ahead and back up those renewables. It's still less expensive than installing nuclear, even if the turbines burn renewable-derived hydrogen.

Re: Solar Is Cheapest Electricity in History, U.S. DOE Aims to Cut Costs 60% by 2030

#89
post #61
post #41

I think the future will be robust national/international grids, with a mixture of storage options (batteries/pumped hydro) to smooth out the intermittent nature of wind and solar. Cynics always talk about the amount of energy storage required for solar as if you need to store 24 hours of energy for solar/wind to be viable. I'd like to see numbers on having 1 hour of storage for peak demand, a robust national grid, an…

I suspect most of the intermittency of wind and solar will be addressed through super-capacity (500% of peak demand, not 100%) and geographic diversity. Batteries will be used for very short-term local balancing and power regulation ... then for those occasional times when hydro, wind and solar don’t cut it, we’ll still burn a little gas but it will be bio gas or green hydrogen, rather than fossil gas. This gas will…

Or super-capacity could be used on energy intensive operations, such as desalination plants.

Re: Solar Is Cheapest Electricity in History, U.S. DOE Aims to Cut Costs 60% by 2030

#90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even achieving just one hour of storage globally amounts to 2.5 TWh of storage. By comparison the entire world produces ~300 GWh worth of lithium ion battery annually. That leaves geographically limited options like pumped hydroelectricity, and solutions not yet deployed at any significant scale like hydrogen fuel cells, synthetic methane, thermal batteries, flywheels, etc. Realistically we should saturate daytime en…

Why would we use lithium ion batteries? I would imagine the approach to store the energy would be to use the energy from solar panels to do work that can be used to produce electricity later. For example, you could use solar energy to pump water back uphill to flow down through a hydro electric dam later. Even if it isn't the most efficient, in the long run it would likely provide the best scalability and least long…

My comment at https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26597661 links to a number of overviews of the issue, including MacKay's chapter in which he covers pumped storage in about as much depth as you can possibly hope in a 20-page chapter aimed at a general audience. Go read it!
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