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Solar Is Cheapest Electricity in History, U.S. DOE Aims to Cut Costs 60% by 2030

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Re: Solar Is Cheapest Electricity in History, U.S. DOE Aims to Cut Costs 60% by 2030

#51

If solar were free, but we still needed to pay for battery storage, how would it then compare in cost to fuel-based alternatives (fossil fuel, nuclear etc)?

People use way too much power for battery storage to be viable. The average household consumes 28.9kwh in a day (in 2017), which is way more than rooftop solar can provide. Maybe when we have smaller houses and don't have a bajillion devices plugged in all the time.

In a northern latitude, it looks like I could (more than) meet my electric use with ~1/2 of the southern face of my roof (so like 25% of the roof area).

It wouldn't be enough for winter heating though.

Re: Solar Is Cheapest Electricity in History, U.S. DOE Aims to Cut Costs 60% by 2030

#52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most people will have a big battery in their garage capable of powering their house for days pretty soon.

Unless battery prices drastically drop, 2 days of power is 60kwh (quoting earlier figure), even if batteries were $100/kwh, that's $6000 in batteries (or ~$9 if you're on grid) edit: bad math, had $60k

I think you're off by an order of magnitude there? $100/kwh * 60kwh is $6000, not 60 grand.

Re: Solar Is Cheapest Electricity in History, U.S. DOE Aims to Cut Costs 60% by 2030

#53
post #41

I think the future will be robust national/international grids, with a mixture of storage options (batteries/pumped hydro) to smooth out the intermittent nature of wind and solar. Cynics always talk about the amount of energy storage required for solar as if you need to store 24 hours of energy for solar/wind to be viable. I'd like to see numbers on having 1 hour of storage for peak demand, a robust national grid, an…

Even achieving just one hour of storage globally amounts to 2.5 TWh of storage. By comparison the entire world produces ~300 GWh worth of lithium ion battery annually. That leaves geographically limited options like pumped hydroelectricity, and solutions not yet deployed at any significant scale like hydrogen fuel cells, synthetic methane, thermal batteries, flywheels, etc.

Realistically we should saturate daytime energy demand with solar, and if there aren't any scalable storage options by then switch gears and proceed with hydroelectric where it's viable and nuclear where it's not.

Re: Solar Is Cheapest Electricity in History, U.S. DOE Aims to Cut Costs 60% by 2030

#54
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would need $20/KWh battery storage to be competitive with nuclear for baseload according to https://www.cell.com/joule/fulltext/S2542-4351(19)30300-9 At the moment, we're at about $800/KWh.

Aren't car battery packs under $100/KWh? Is there some other factor which drives up the price for grid level storage?

The factor that drives up price for grid level storage is scale. Only ~300 GWh worth of batteries is produced globally each year. The world uses 2.5 TWh of electricity each hour. If anyone tries to install battery storage at a significant scale, demand will vastly outstrip supply and drive prices up.

Re: Solar Is Cheapest Electricity in History, U.S. DOE Aims to Cut Costs 60% by 2030

#55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Aren't car battery packs under $100/KWh? Is there some other factor which drives up the price for grid level storage?

The factor that drives up price for grid level storage is scale. Only ~300 GWh worth of batteries is produced globally each year. The world uses 2.5 TWh of electricity each hour. If anyone tries to install battery storage at a significant scale, demand will vastly outstrip supply and drive prices up.

[deleted]

Re: Solar Is Cheapest Electricity in History, U.S. DOE Aims to Cut Costs 60% by 2030

#56
post #41

I think the future will be robust national/international grids, with a mixture of storage options (batteries/pumped hydro) to smooth out the intermittent nature of wind and solar. Cynics always talk about the amount of energy storage required for solar as if you need to store 24 hours of energy for solar/wind to be viable. I'd like to see numbers on having 1 hour of storage for peak demand, a robust national grid, an…

Even achieving just one hour of storage globally amounts to 2.5 TWh of storage. By comparison the entire world produces ~300 GWh worth of lithium ion battery annually. That leaves geographically limited options like pumped hydroelectricity, and solutions not yet deployed at any significant scale like hydrogen fuel cells, synthetic methane, thermal batteries, flywheels, etc. Realistically we should saturate daytime en…

> Even achieving just one hour of storage globally amounts to 2.5 TWh of storage. By comparison the entire world produces ~300 GWh worth of lithium ion battery annually

... so if we could increase battery production by just 10x, then we could create an hours worth of storage every year. That seems... very doable.

Re: Solar Is Cheapest Electricity in History, U.S. DOE Aims to Cut Costs 60% by 2030

#57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most people will have a big battery in their garage capable of powering their house for days pretty soon.

Unless battery prices drastically drop, 2 days of power is 60kwh (quoting earlier figure), even if batteries were $100/kwh, that's $6000 in batteries (or ~$9 if you're on grid) edit: bad math, had $60k

What makes you think they won't drop significantly? PV panel costs have dropped by dramtically due to efficiencies of scale, and batteries are only just seeing production begin to ramp up.

Re: Solar Is Cheapest Electricity in History, U.S. DOE Aims to Cut Costs 60% by 2030

#58
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's relatively high, the problem is that building new dams is an environmental disaster, and existing dams are two orders of magnitude below needed capacity. Also, hydro dams kill a lot of people when they have accidents.

Do you have to dam a river to store energy in this way? Can they just build water towers that pull water from underground up into a tank and release it via gravity to generate power when needed?

no, https://www.tva.com/energy/our-power-system/hydroelectric/ra...

Re: Solar Is Cheapest Electricity in History, U.S. DOE Aims to Cut Costs 60% by 2030

#59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even achieving just one hour of storage globally amounts to 2.5 TWh of storage. By comparison the entire world produces ~300 GWh worth of lithium ion battery annually. That leaves geographically limited options like pumped hydroelectricity, and solutions not yet deployed at any significant scale like hydrogen fuel cells, synthetic methane, thermal batteries, flywheels, etc. Realistically we should saturate daytime en…

> Even achieving just one hour of storage globally amounts to 2.5 TWh of storage. By comparison the entire world produces ~300 GWh worth of lithium ion battery annually ... so if we could increase battery production by just 10x, then we could create an hours worth of storage every year. That seems... very doable.

That sounds extremely expensive and not very green.

Re: Solar Is Cheapest Electricity in History, U.S. DOE Aims to Cut Costs 60% by 2030

#60
post #34
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I assume location must play a large part in this? Solar must be more cost-effective in, say, the Mojave desert, than it is in Alaska. Yes, each peak kilowatt of utility-scale solar produces about 240 watts average in Arizona, 140 in Maine, and 100 in Germany ("capacity factors" of 24%, 14%, and 10%). I assume the number for Alaska would be even lower. > Every solar panel you put on the ground is going to take up so…

> These will start to be important problems when the quantity of power produced by solar panels is about 100 times larger than current world marketed energy consumption. I expect that this will happen in about 30 years. You predict energy needs will increase 100x in 30 years? Surely you mean just solar energy production?

Production and consumption are objective. Needs are subjective. The only objective necessity for a living thing is its death — everything else is optional. To think otherwise is wishful thinking.

The behavior of living systems is to expand when not constrained by resources; the human economy has been constrained by fossil fuels for 250 years, due to its inability to take advantage of solar energy, much as it was constrained by agricultural production for the preceding 12000 years, with occasional exceptions like petroleum-drilling-fueled salt refining in the Song dynasty. Since about 02015, solar energy has been brought within within the scope of what the human economy can effectively consume directly, rather than through agriculture.

Very few people have noticed this yet or understand what it means; it's still common to hear foolish remarks like https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26220534 "I don't actually see where solar and wind are actually powering a modern economy. I see a lot hope and handwaving." The early stages of exponential growth are indistinguishable from the early stages of sigmoid growth that's an order of magnitude or more from its asymptote; you can't simply extrapolate the growth empirically. You need to understand the underlying dynamics of the system. And so it's very easy to fool yourself, whether out of wishful thinking, vulnerability to manipulation by others, or simple random error. And so far solar energy is under 10% of world electricity generation and under 3% of the IEA's world marketed energy consumption.

So I could be mistaken. Although the solar resource is three orders of magnitude larger than current world marketed energy consumption, maybe there's some limiting factor that will choke off the consumption of solar energy through photovoltaic cells. The most ignorant have suggested that rare-earth metals are such a limiting factor, unaware that solar panels do not use any rare-earth metals. Less absurd is silver: current silicon solar cells use screen-printed silver-paste electrodes, which accounts for some 10% of the cost of the cell and some 10% of world silver mining, so the next order-of-magnitude increase in solar-panel production will probably require the substitution of abundant copper, which will reduce the cells' efficiency.

But the most plausible limitation is storage — a solar power plant is not a direct replacement for a coal power plant unless it's coupled with some kind of utility-scale energy-storage system, which considerably reduces its cost advantage relative to thermal generation stations.

But this is only a limitation insofar as scalable consumers of such intermittent power fail to appear. Traditionally, for example, people would work during the day, leaving their tools idle at night, but this becomes less economically appealing for more capital-intensive forms of production, because they increase the capital cost of leaving your capital goods idle one-third or two-thirds of the time, increasing capital inputs per unit of production by respectively 50% and 200%. Solar-powered industry without enough energy storage to last it through the night and through cloudy days will thus have to pay higher costs of capital per unit of production.

But it seems implausible to me that no profitable and scalable industries exist for which the cost savings from near-zero-cost energy would exceed the cost savings from 24/7 productivity.

So, are there other limiting factors I don't know about?

It may be hard to imagine what humans will use 100 GW or 1000 GW on. But in 01800 it was hard to imagine what we would use 1 GW on (if we don't count agricultural production, which the IEA doesn't). Steam-engines were stationary machines, used mostly to pump water out of mines, and in some cases to drive looms in manufactories; the steam locomotive hadn't been invented yet. Steam-ships had been conclusively shown to be impractical by the disastrous experiments of Papin, Allen, Hulls, Henry, and Fitch; Henry's boat had sunk when he tried to put a steam-engine in it. Fitch's boat at least didn't sink, but his fares couldn't pay the heavy expenses required by the steam-engine. Doctors expressed skepticism about whether the human body could withstand the unbelievable velocities some of the wilder "engineers" were talking about, such as 30 miles per hour or even more. Fulton had met Henry, but hadn't yet seen a steamboat, much less built one. Steam-engines were also notorious for exploding, killing people en masse, and filling their surroundings with poisonous fumes; many doubted their use would ever be widespread.

Yet in 01830 the B&O Railroad was running the 1-kilowatt Tom Thumb steam locomotive down its 23 miles of track (37 km in non-medieval units) at 18 mph (8 m/s) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baltimore_and_Ohio_Railroad#Ea..., and similar lines were running in England and France. Steam-ships were starting to cross the Atlantic, cutting the transit time to a mere month, and paddle-powered steam-boats plied the Thames, the Seine, the Ohio, the Mississippi, and the Great Lakes. Such is the impact of the advent of a new source of energy.

Remember that in the 01950s von Neumann reprimanded one of his graduate students for writing a compiler, saying that a valuable scientific instrument like the computer should not be wasted on clerical work. What would von Neumann have thought of https://hackaday.com/2021/03/26/nixie-shot-timer-adds-useful..., where a computer runs 16 million instructions per second to detect when a pump has turned on in an espresso machine? Could even such a great mind as von Neumann have imagined such a thing, much less condoned such an irresponsible waste of precious computation?

So we should expect that in 02051 people will be using cheap solar energy for innumerable purposes that today would seem absurdly profligate.

It's also possible that world wars, pandemics, global dictatorships, or other civilization-collapsing events will slow or stop the growth in human use of solar energy. But it seems probable that, barring such calamities, solar energy production will continue to grow until it's a significant percentage of total terrestrial insolation, which is the point at which the plant-shading and heat-retention effects start to become significant.

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