The pandemic has changed the shape of global happiness • Hacker News Board

Re: The pandemic has changed the shape of global happiness

#51

Post by rhino369 » Wed, Mar 24, 2021, 4:31 AM UTC

nl wrote: post #27

clairity wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

don't give up. there's plenty of us who actually have assessed the risks and weighed them apropriately, using our own brains rather than relying on others to assuage our fears. almost none of the publicly pronounced mitigations have much mitigative effect. the most reasonable mitigation is sensible distancing when you're going to spend extended time with non-household members in tight quarters, but that's not big eno…

Lockdowns work, but they have to be hard and you can't stop until you have suppressed the virus. Victoria, Australia was a great example: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-54654646 Opening up before suppression without strong contact tracing (or vaccine) just seems like the worst of both worlds: you have the horrible effects of a lockdown, and the knowledge it's just going to come back.

It took Victoria 3+ months to go from 700 case to 0. How long do you think it would take America to go from 70,000 cases to 0?

The longer a lockdown, the less severe it can be. Supply chains don't have 4-5 months of leeway. People aren't going to avoid their friends and family for that long.

I think there is a point of no-return where there are too many infected people in too many corners of a given population to ever really contain it again.

Re: The pandemic has changed the shape of global happiness

#52

Post by JSavageOne » Wed, Mar 24, 2021, 4:38 AM UTC

tobasq wrote: post #17

JSavageOne wrote: post #4

The most annoying thing to me is that when one critiques lockdown policy (which by the way is unique to the west, Korea for example never had a lockdown [1]), one is labeled as selfish, anti-science, and lumped into the Trump-supporting right wing camp. It feels like having an honest discussion isn't even possible without being downvote bombed to the point where your comment gets censored (especially on extremely one…

Do you really imagine a USA that didn't lock down doing as well as South Korea and Taiwan? Look at our numbers with the lockdowns. The Asian countries were only able to do what they did because they were prepared, culturally and logistically, for a viral epidemic before one arrived.

> Do you really imagine a USA that didn't lock down doing as well as South Korea and Taiwan?

No, the U.S. was relatively unprepared, but that doesn't invalidate anything I said.

Re: The pandemic has changed the shape of global happiness

#53

Post by JSavageOne » Wed, Mar 24, 2021, 4:41 AM UTC

NorthOf33rd wrote: post #28

JSavageOne wrote: post #4

The most annoying thing to me is that when one critiques lockdown policy (which by the way is unique to the west, Korea for example never had a lockdown [1]), one is labeled as selfish, anti-science, and lumped into the Trump-supporting right wing camp. It feels like having an honest discussion isn't even possible without being downvote bombed to the point where your comment gets censored (especially on extremely one…

Critiquing lockdown policy because you can’t live your “nomadic lifestyle” is selfish. Critiquing lockdown because there are better alternatives is not. You chose to frame your argument in the former.

That's why I brought up countries that handled the pandemic extremely well without lockdowns.

My critique of lockdowns goes far beyond not being able to live a nomadic lifestyle. Notice how I said that life isn't the same no matter where I am. I could write a whole essay, talk about how all my friends are depressed, etc., but that's outside the scope of my comment.

Re: The pandemic has changed the shape of global happiness

#54

Post by JSavageOne » Wed, Mar 24, 2021, 4:43 AM UTC

NorthOf33rd wrote: post #31

JSavageOne wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Do you honestly, honestly believe that Americans or Europeans at any level would have been able to transition to and adhere to such strict restrictions? Of course. Why would that not be possible? This is another common response I see, this defeatist attitude that the west is not capable of implementing the same smart common sense policies that the east did. With this pessimistic attitude it's sure as hell not possi…

Why would that not be possible in America? When the leader of the country during the pandemic was explicitly antimask? You can’t rewrite history with “logic.”

The U.S. is a democracy, not a dictatorship. The president can only do so much. If there's a problem with the politicians, they need to be replaced. If there's a problem with the system, that needs to be fixed. Just saying "it's not possible in America" is not constructive or useful.

Re: The pandemic has changed the shape of global happiness

#55

Post by JSavageOne » Wed, Mar 24, 2021, 4:49 AM UTC

ilikehurdles wrote: post #20

JSavageOne wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Do you honestly, honestly believe that Americans or Europeans at any level would have been able to transition to and adhere to such strict restrictions? Of course. Why would that not be possible? This is another common response I see, this defeatist attitude that the west is not capable of implementing the same smart common sense policies that the east did. With this pessimistic attitude it's sure as hell not possi…

I admire your optimism. I agree to the extent that our pessimistic attitudes are a cancer that will lead to our downfall. I do not believe we can overcome them as they permeate up and down the spectrum of influence and political power. I realize the irony in taking a pessimistic stance and recognizing the harm in that pessimism, but I don’t really know what else to say or how to change it.

I agree that it's not easy in the U.S. to get things done, but I see optimism as a prerequisite to getting things done, so I choose to be optimistic. For example, first it starts with fixing our healthcare system. Many of the countries who fared to work had awful healthcare systems to begin with.

In any case since I no longer live in the U.S., I don't really have much skin in the game anymore, so this stuff doesn't stress me out like it used to. So even though I may sound optimistic, I actually gave up enough to compel me to emigrate from the country. But I do see positive change happening in the U.S., just slower than in other countries.

Re: The pandemic has changed the shape of global happiness

#56

Post by jhanschoo » Wed, Mar 24, 2021, 4:51 AM UTC

chii wrote: post #45

tjs8rj wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, that’s life? Sure, doubling my money in every investment is great, but unrealistic. Plenty of strategies work as long as every does it and everything works perfectly. The problem is finding a strategy that works in the real world. Lockdowns failed because they weren’t the right solution, because reality is what it is and they weren’t calibrated for the reality that locking down everyone’s lives for a month si…

> let people make their own risk calculations based on the available evidence and their own situation and there-in lies the heart of the issue - the assumption that most people are able to make a good assessment, and that the assessment takes into account the impact on a societal level, rather than an individual level. This simply does not happen. People are selfish. People only look out for themselves. Therefore, it…

Small quibble, without expressing opinion on the substance of your comment: you mean totalitarian, not authoritarian: in the latter, the despotic power is primarily concerned with political power, whereas the totalitarian seeks to regulate the citizen's entire life.

Re: The pandemic has changed the shape of global happiness

#57

Post by JSavageOne » Wed, Mar 24, 2021, 4:52 AM UTC

irrational wrote: post #48

JSavageOne wrote: post #4

The most annoying thing to me is that when one critiques lockdown policy (which by the way is unique to the west, Korea for example never had a lockdown [1]), one is labeled as selfish, anti-science, and lumped into the Trump-supporting right wing camp. It feels like having an honest discussion isn't even possible without being downvote bombed to the point where your comment gets censored (especially on extremely one…

> life has become a miserable shadow of what it once was Eh, I think it depends on your personality. As an introvert, I’ve never been as happy as this past year. It has been fantastic and I am dreading having to work in an office again, social distancing going away, perhaps masks going away. I try not to think about the end of the pandemic since it just makes me depressed.

Oh I hate offices too, but I was already working remotely prior to the pandemic.

For what it's worth I consider myself an introvert too. But introversion is definitely a spectrum, and if I'm alone all the time then I'll feel depressed (I wish I didn't though).

Re: The pandemic has changed the shape of global happiness

#58

Post by flukus » Wed, Mar 24, 2021, 5:02 AM UTC

rhino369 wrote: post #51

nl wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lockdowns work, but they have to be hard and you can't stop until you have suppressed the virus. Victoria, Australia was a great example: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-54654646 Opening up before suppression without strong contact tracing (or vaccine) just seems like the worst of both worlds: you have the horrible effects of a lockdown, and the knowledge it's just going to come back.

It took Victoria 3+ months to go from 700 case to 0. How long do you think it would take America to go from 70,000 cases to 0? The longer a lockdown, the less severe it can be. Supply chains don't have 4-5 months of leeway. People aren't going to avoid their friends and family for that long. I think there is a point of no-return where there are too many infected people in too many corners of a given population to eve…

> It took Victoria 3+ months to go from 700 case to 0

The first 6 weeks or so weren't strict enough and cases were still growing at the half way point, we squandered the first 6 weeks with ineffective half measures.

> How long do you think it would take America to go from 70,000 cases to 0?

Roughly the same time, cases were roughly halving every couple of weeks or so. Much like searching a binary tree doubling the size of the tree does not double the search time.

> The longer a lockdown, the less severe it can be

Victoria and several other places learned that this is not true, a less severe lockdown had cases growing or stagnating and delivered the worst of both worlds. Hard lockdowns offer a way back to normality.

Re: The pandemic has changed the shape of global happiness

#59

Post by JSavageOne » Wed, Mar 24, 2021, 5:05 AM UTC

wvenable wrote: post #36

JSavageOne wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hospitals are not beyond capacity everywhere where lockdowns are being imposed. Hospital overcapacity is extremely location-dependent. Also, hospital overcapacity in itself does not justify lockdown policies. Some would argue that not being allow indoor dining or to walk outside after 10pm is a violation of basic human rights (not to mention neither of these measures were implemented in Korea for example).

South Korea has had a relatively small number of COVID cases. Kindergartens, schools, universities, cinemas, gyms were closed soon after the outbreak with schools and universities having online classes. You're mixing up cause and effect. South Korea has definitely considered lock down measures as cased increased but so far they haven't needed to. Not only is hospital overcapacity location-dependent but so have been t…

My point was that lockdowns aren't necessary, and rather than jumping to lockdown, we should be looking to learn from the countries that handled the pandemic better than us. In America the dialogue basically seems to just be "omg cases are rising? SHUT DOWN EVERYTHING". Not enough attention is put on the million other less destructive measures that can be taken to reduce the spread.

Right now for example I'm in a third world country with a highly ranked healthcare system (above Germany). No lockdown here, hospitals aren't overwhelmed, and life is almost like normal (other than half the local businesses appearing to be out of business). There are basic measures like hand sanitizer everywhere, and needing to put it on to say enter a shopping mall.

2 weeks ago I was in the U.S., and I never really even saw that. I was in a post office, and I had to ask the cashier if they had sanitizer and she took a little bottle from the back, after which I'd imagine she put it back behind the counter as if hiding it from customers. When I took an Amtrak train nobody offered hand sanitizer or checked my temperature.

I'm not saying that having hand sanitizer available is the cure to containing COVID, I'm saying that these are the absolute easiest to implement measures that even third world countries have managed to implement, and the U.S. is not even capable of that. The U.S. seems incapable of doing anything other than telling restaurants they need to shut down, which is absurd (yes there are things being done behind the scenes and I'm hand-waving a bit, but the point is that even compared to third world countries, the U.S./west appears to be immensely incompetent despite being the wealthiest countries)

Re: The pandemic has changed the shape of global happiness

#60

Post by JSavageOne » Wed, Mar 24, 2021, 5:09 AM UTC

lukebitts wrote: post #24

ekianjo wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where exactly are hospitals beyond capacity ? Please provide sources for extraordinary claims.

How is saying hospitals are full extraordinary? My country is going through it right now, we just had our first death from someone who could not find a hospital bed. Im sure a google search on this subject would be very easy.

Because it's extremely location dependent, and not true for most hospitals. Full hospitals are in the minority.