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Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

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Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#671

Post by handmodel »

ajross wrote: post #598
gregwebs wrote: post #397

This is a great article explaining why a lab leak should always be a suspect. The alternative theory is that a virus traveled on its own (via bats or other animals) from bat caves 900km away to Wuhan where there are 2 labs researching bats. One of the labs is lesser known but is right next to the seafood market and the hospital where the outbreak was first known. [1] This article points out that a lab outbreak could…

There is no requirement that bats be transported to Wuhan. It's close to a known bat virus, and that's all we know. There are local bats in Wuhan, needless to say. Other species can easily be involved. The truth is that there is nothing particularly surprising about the way this virus evolved. Fundamentally this is a pandemic like any other. They happen in some species or another every year. And that, more than anyth…

Is it Occam's razor?

The Bayesian probability suggests the odds that it would evolve by chance AND first become an issue right next to one of the top three bat virus research centers in the world are pretty slim.

It would be like a new mosquito disease first being an issue in human population next the CDC headquarters in Atlanta instead of somewhere in Africa of South America. Sure - there are mosquitos everywhere - but the chance that a new disease would start in Atlanta are very slim.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#672

Post by op03 »

strogonoff wrote: post #468
gregwebs wrote: post #397

This is a great article explaining why a lab leak should always be a suspect. The alternative theory is that a virus traveled on its own (via bats or other animals) from bat caves 900km away to Wuhan where there are 2 labs researching bats. One of the labs is lesser known but is right next to the seafood market and the hospital where the outbreak was first known. [1] This article points out that a lab outbreak could…

An eerily prescient quote from a paper[0] published in 2015, two of the authors of which are with Wuhan Institute of Virology: > Understanding the bat origin of human coronaviruses is helpful for the prediction and prevention of another pandemic emergence in the future. China has clearly contributed valuable research into bat coronaviruses. They had all the motivation to look into these after the first deadly SARS. I…

Its not inappropriate. They know they are dealing with characters in the US govt who have a track record of cooking up stories about Aluminium tubes and WMDs to push the herd in whatever direction they want.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#673

Post by bitreality »

ethbr0 wrote: post #639
Aeolun wrote: post #571

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> However, CCP’s resistance to a proper thorough study of the origins of COVID is IMO not exactly appropriate. It is, in fact, highly suspect. I’m not at all positive that it indeed leaked from a lab in Wuhan, but the fact they won’t let an independent investigation anywhere near it makes me lean more strongly towards that as a possibility. The description of the last investigation into the origins of the virus felt…

Or, you know, we may just be talking about a paranoid autocracy with an obsession for controlling information? This is a government that bans talking about multiple periods of the country's history.

For that very reason, we cannot accept their narrative at face value. We certainly don't have enough information to confidently eliminate the lab escape theory. The media has largely suggested that the lab escape theory has been disproved.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#674

Post by nemothekid »

brankoB wrote: post #664
nemothekid wrote: post #608

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The “power” you are exerting is the one killing innocent American citizens. The CCP doesn’t give a flying fuck that you are calling it China virus. That you would put American lives at risk for some superficial insult at the CCP says you care more about your perceived superiority than actually solving problems pertaining to the virus. Again it is Americans who are dying, not the Chinese.

I can't imagine a situation in which someone dies because I used the term China virus. Also the CCP definitely cares. Negative PR for a country which is a major exporter is a bad thing for the country.

>I can't imagine a situation in which someone dies because I used the term China virus.

So the huge growth in asian hate crimes year over year is completely unrelated to this misguided effort to somehow blame China for COVID?

>Also the CCP definitely cares.

The CCP cares so much that they never once made a statement to Trump to stop calling it the china virus. Again it's not the Chinese who said stop calling it the China virus, it was Americans who were correctly fearful of being attacked for being Asian.

>Negative PR for a country which is a major exporter is a bad thing for the country.

This is the most laughable comment. The country that had negative PR for decades about children working in sweatshops and factory workers killing themselves is suddenly going to turn heel about the China virus when it's worked up till now. I remember all that "negative PR" being so successful when it came to Hong Kong.

If negative PR actually mattered, American imperialism wouldn't be so successful. CIA-backed coups all over the world never hurt America's economic position.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#677

Post by Leary »

reducesuffering wrote: post #628
the_cat_kittles wrote: post #272

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ive been here for a decade... its my opinion that HN very much does NOT get things like this right more often than not. its very hard to even guage what the hn opinion is to begin with

> "its very hard to even guage what the hn opinion is to begin with" Not sure how to square this with the fact you're saying HN collectively gets it wrong. Either you can't even determine what it is they're getting wrong or you're exceptionally good at gauging what the HN opinion is. Because of your quote, I'll assume you're not accurately gauging what HN's majority opinion is on issues, because it's "very hard." I s…

HN also said China couldn't contain Covid through lockdowns, how did that turn out?

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#678

Post by hungryhobo »

zensavona wrote: post #669
incompatible wrote: post #642

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think that's quite accurate: https://thewest.com.au/news/health/who-team-visits-wuhan-res...

Except that it was (allegedly) a whole load of BS https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=evHFsNSMTLM

You have to keep in mind laowhy86 isn't exactly know to be impartial

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#679

Post by bitreality »

anthony_romeo wrote: post #484
gregwebs wrote: post #397

This is a great article explaining why a lab leak should always be a suspect. The alternative theory is that a virus traveled on its own (via bats or other animals) from bat caves 900km away to Wuhan where there are 2 labs researching bats. One of the labs is lesser known but is right next to the seafood market and the hospital where the outbreak was first known. [1] This article points out that a lab outbreak could…

I agree. Personally I’ve not dismissed this possibility at all. But as it stands, it’s just a hypothesis with suggestive information, but nothing concrete. There are verified wrongs to criticize them for right now, and can be a starting point for remediation, rather than drum up hate and criticism of mere hypothetical wrongs. (And of course, one such example of a verifiable wrong could be proof of Chinese institution…

The problem is that discussing this hypothesis in any form is often labeled as "offensive" and "racist". The generally accepted theory even in the West is the lab leak was somehow disproved. It's always baffled me, because the only way you could really disprove the lab leak theory would be by finding the original source of the virus.

Instead, the media often attempts to disprove the lab leak by pointing out that COVID-19 differs from the viruses that were being worked on in the Wuhan Lab. But that in itself implies that China is being transparent. To the contrary, we know that China would take every measure to obfuscate the lab leak if they believed it was the origin of the virus.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#680

Post by throwawaygimp »

handmodel wrote: post #671
ajross wrote: post #598

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is no requirement that bats be transported to Wuhan. It's close to a known bat virus, and that's all we know. There are local bats in Wuhan, needless to say. Other species can easily be involved. The truth is that there is nothing particularly surprising about the way this virus evolved. Fundamentally this is a pandemic like any other. They happen in some species or another every year. And that, more than anyth…

Is it Occam's razor? The Bayesian probability suggests the odds that it would evolve by chance AND first become an issue right next to one of the top three bat virus research centers in the world are pretty slim. It would be like a new mosquito disease first being an issue in human population next the CDC headquarters in Atlanta instead of somewhere in Africa of South America. Sure - there are mosquitos everywhere -…

If I were to build a bat virus research center... i'd put it close to where bats are. So these aren't independent.

But your point is still a good one

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