Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed • Hacker News Board

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#641

Post by marcus_holmes » Tue, Mar 23, 2021, 2:15 AM UTC

Aeolun wrote: post #577

DrJaws wrote: post #531

Earlier quoted context omitted.

an immediate immunization of your population would drive to a raise of suspicion and if someone found china guilty of that, would mean a world war against them.

Given how many people died of the virus VS how many would die in a world war that seems like a highly illogical course of action.

Pearl Harbour killed 2,403 Americans [0].

We're at 500,000 now with the virus, I think?

That's more Americans than have been killed in all the 20th Century wars combined [1].

[0]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attack_on_Pearl_Harbor

[1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_military_casualt...

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#642

Post by incompatible » Tue, Mar 23, 2021, 2:15 AM UTC

Aeolun wrote: post #571

strogonoff wrote: post #468

Earlier quoted context omitted.

An eerily prescient quote from a paper[0] published in 2015, two of the authors of which are with Wuhan Institute of Virology: > Understanding the bat origin of human coronaviruses is helpful for the prediction and prevention of another pandemic emergence in the future. China has clearly contributed valuable research into bat coronaviruses. They had all the motivation to look into these after the first deadly SARS. I…

> However, CCP’s resistance to a proper thorough study of the origins of COVID is IMO not exactly appropriate. It is, in fact, highly suspect. I’m not at all positive that it indeed leaked from a lab in Wuhan, but the fact they won’t let an independent investigation anywhere near it makes me lean more strongly towards that as a possibility. The description of the last investigation into the origins of the virus felt…

I don't think that's quite accurate: https://thewest.com.au/news/health/who-team-visits-wuhan-res...

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#643

Post by andrewflnr » Tue, Mar 23, 2021, 2:17 AM UTC

unishark wrote: post #636

andrewflnr wrote: post #607

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My impression was that "lab escape" was conflated with "deliberate release" by conspiracy types early on, and once that took hold it became impossible to talk rationally about the accidental escape hypothesis.

Conspiracy theorists are always going to weave conspiracy theories, though. That doesn't absolve the media or the rest of us from being the adults in the room.

Absolve, no. Explain... maybe.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#644

Post by kjjjjjjjjjjjjjj » Tue, Mar 23, 2021, 2:17 AM UTC

gregwebs wrote: post #397

This is a great article explaining why a lab leak should always be a suspect. The alternative theory is that a virus traveled on its own (via bats or other animals) from bat caves 900km away to Wuhan where there are 2 labs researching bats. One of the labs is lesser known but is right next to the seafood market and the hospital where the outbreak was first known. [1] This article points out that a lab outbreak could…

>We need to avoid demonizing China over this if we want to ever find out the truth and learn how to prevent another pandemic outbreak.

But China knew about the virus in 2019 and kept it quiet. They silenced scientists. China is complicit in this pandemic and should pay reparations.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#645

Post by ethbr0 » Tue, Mar 23, 2021, 2:19 AM UTC

ggggtez wrote: post #591

IgorPartola wrote: post #516

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My naive reasoning on why China didn’t create COVID-19 with the intention of using it is that I suspect (unburdened by education or the thought process) that engineering a virus is as difficult as coming up with a vaccine or treatment. If you are developing some kind of super virus to shut down the world economy and then immunize your own people to take advantage of the situation, wouldn’t you have the cure ready to…

I'll not conclude anything, but I will say that engineering a virus is an order of magnitude easier than a vaccine. It's a pure mapping problem. There are thousands of known viruses that affect humans. But most viruses don't have thousands of vaccines. Additionally, there are constraints. The only contraint on a virus is that is needs to reproduce, and cause harm. Any kind of harm will do, and any kind of spreading i…

> But the vaccine needs to not hurt the person

People underappreciate just how complicated and time-consuming this is.

Immune systems are terrifying things, on trigger alert (they have to be!), and you have to tickle it just right without making everything explode.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#646

Post by p1necone » Tue, Mar 23, 2021, 2:24 AM UTC

unishark wrote: post #636

andrewflnr wrote: post #607

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My impression was that "lab escape" was conflated with "deliberate release" by conspiracy types early on, and once that took hold it became impossible to talk rationally about the accidental escape hypothesis.

Conspiracy theorists are always going to weave conspiracy theories, though. That doesn't absolve the media or the rest of us from being the adults in the room.

Yes but when when people consistently bring up the mostly unfalsifiable theory that is most associated with conspiracy theories it's basically impossible to separate the conspiracy theorists from everyone else, and sadly much more productive to just not engage.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#647

Post by kube-system » Tue, Mar 23, 2021, 2:26 AM UTC

mardifoufs wrote: post #631

TremendousJudge wrote: post #565

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Covid doesn't make people suddenly drop dead in the street They do if they don't get treatment. Usual course for deadly covid is, high fevers, feeling terrible, then there's an improvement in symptoms for a couple of days, then blood oxygen levels drop and the person drops dead

Any source on that? Genuinely curious as I seem to have completely forgotten about the early videos from china until now and what they pictured was very at odds with what we now know the virus can do. Wouldn't everything you described happen gradually? as in people wouldn't be able to walk normally before reaching the point where they drop dead from oxygen levels low enough to be immediately lethal? From my own exper…

I haven't seen any videos, but you wouldn't necessarily have to have people "walking" in the streets to have people dying in the streets. Major cities often have plenty of people who are sitting or standing in the street all day long.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#648

Post by SiempreViernes » Tue, Mar 23, 2021, 2:29 AM UTC

tripletao wrote: post #447

tbenst wrote: post #122

This article is written by a journalist who is clearly knowledgeable about safety practices and mistakes in US labs, but does not consider the extensive knowledge we have about the sequence of SARS-COV2. The preponderance of evidence supports a natural origin of the virus. This is no way exonerates the Wuhan government from possible culpability—indeed government officials did deliberately suppress information—but thi…

In roughest form, Andersen is saying "SARS-CoV-2 doesn't closely resemble any existing known virus, so it wasn't produced by genetic manipulation of existing known viruses". I think that's true, but it ignores the possibility that the WIV was working with new viruses with unpublished genomes. The WIV routinely organized expeditions to remote bat caves to collect samples. There's naturally some delay between sampling,…

Well, we do have statements from the WIV that none of their samples closely match the earliest SARS-CoV-2, but we can just assume they are just outright lying, right?

So, except for the fact that you must believe WIV did all these experiments in total secrecy (so that nobody outside heard of it while visiting, etc) and now won't admit to having done them, it's not a conspiracy theory.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#649

Post by kodah » Tue, Mar 23, 2021, 2:29 AM UTC

gregwebs wrote: post #397

This is a great article explaining why a lab leak should always be a suspect. The alternative theory is that a virus traveled on its own (via bats or other animals) from bat caves 900km away to Wuhan where there are 2 labs researching bats. One of the labs is lesser known but is right next to the seafood market and the hospital where the outbreak was first known. [1] This article points out that a lab outbreak could…

It's really ludicrous that anyone gets conspiratorial about the CCP spreading a bioweapon that originates in their own country. They snuck military scientists into the US to tap into coronavirus research. The most simple litmus test I can think of is if China led the race for a vaccine, but they didn't.

People really need to stop and think, because next time that lab could be in your country. With icebergs and permafrost melting, you can bet there's going to be more pandemics in the pipeline. This really isn't a time for people's crass and nihilistic takes on foreign governments, science, or even your own government. When you leave room for people and systems to screw up, then things get better; if you're hypercritical then all you incentivise is the burying of evidence and lies.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#650

Post by reducesuffering » Tue, Mar 23, 2021, 2:29 AM UTC

tgsovlerkhgsel wrote: post #298

hetspookjee wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand why WHO is selling it's creditiblity in trade for politics. What is there to gain? Perhaps I am too short sighted but I cannot believe that this is ever the right compromise to take. I also don't understand why they even had the slighest faith in a reliable investigation. After all these months of pushing back on researching accessing the site, they still bowed to their whims. How does this help th…

How bad of a deal it is to sell your credibility should have been obvious since April 2020. The lies about masks may have helped with shortages in the short term. The result is now that people rightfully distrust everything their governments say.

Seriously wtf. We're trying to combat disinformation and distrust in info from authorities on the subjects, and the CDC and Fauci comes out with that blatant "noble lie." I can't take these institutions seriously the same way again.