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Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

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Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#581

Post by sooheon »

boomboomsubban wrote: post #535
frenchy wrote: post #522

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Presumably a better understanding of the origins of the 2019 virus would be useful for predicting the likelyhood of a similar outbreak from the same source, or allow people to alter practices to reduce that likelyhood.

Our current understanding of everything you mention is already good, and there have been no indications that I'm aware of that this case happened in a way that would alter that understanding. To show my point, even if we aggressively investigate the source and discover it did not originate in a lab, nobody would then argue that it's alright to lower security on such biolabs.

But people may come up with 80/20 improvements to mitigate the actual source of the virus. Why is improved data a bad thing, in your view?

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#582

Post by jtdev »

nickt wrote: post #528
gregwebs wrote: post #397

This is a great article explaining why a lab leak should always be a suspect. The alternative theory is that a virus traveled on its own (via bats or other animals) from bat caves 900km away to Wuhan where there are 2 labs researching bats. One of the labs is lesser known but is right next to the seafood market and the hospital where the outbreak was first known. [1] This article points out that a lab outbreak could…

It’s probably important to point out that a “lab leak” is a result of human-clumsiness or similar, and not the sci-fi movie bad guys engineering a virus. A lot of the non-HN crowd don’t get the difference.

Yeah, but the effect of this “human-clumsiness” is millions dead... it’s not a simple matter to excuse such clumsiness if this is in fact a lab leak.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#583

Post by nemothekid »

Graffur wrote: post #461

Science, like journalism, is supposed to be about facts and about getting to the truth. No source of covid-19 has been found. Similar lab leaks happen frequently. BUT.. you're not allowed to discuss it with the undertones that you're a bad person. If you say china virus you could be accused of being a racist. But if you say South African or British variant it's okay. The mental acrobats are insane. If you suggest peo…

I’m baffled at what branch of science involves being able to call it the “China virus” rather than COVID.

When was Science about prescribing blame?

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#584

Post by synergy20 »

notsobig wrote: post #314
polartx wrote: post #279

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>A rational actor... Let’s remember this is China we’re talking about. Before you hand wave that away, consider the emphasis that China places on keeping-up-appearances at practically any cost

Honestly this is not relevant. My comment was not "what i think happened", it was "your argument is tilted crap". The action allegedly taken is not evidence of guilt, is all I was saying.

I read carefully last year on related news, it's said the animals used in those labs are sometimes taken out secretly and sold to the wild-animal-market, and some rubber gowns and gloves are also resold because they're so sturdy for reuse. Incidents occurred a few times already(including recurring SARS) because of similar wrongdoings before COVID-19.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#585

Post by bloaf »

trhway wrote: post #420
gregwebs wrote: post #397

This is a great article explaining why a lab leak should always be a suspect. The alternative theory is that a virus traveled on its own (via bats or other animals) from bat caves 900km away to Wuhan where there are 2 labs researching bats. One of the labs is lesser known but is right next to the seafood market and the hospital where the outbreak was first known. [1] This article points out that a lab outbreak could…

>a lab outbreak could have happened in the United States and many places in the world. not that outbreak. US stopped doing that GoF research and funded it in those Wuhan labs instead - basically like any other outsourcing of environmentally dangerous manufacturing/etc. to China. My pet conspiracy theory is that as part of that GoF the virus was tested on humans there - say some prisoners happily volunteering for a co…

US lab shut down temporarily due to inadequate waste sterilization. They were infecting monkeys with ebola? https://wjla.com/news/local/cdc-shut-down-army-germ-lab-heal...

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#586

Post by synergy20 »

notsobig wrote: post #226
synergy20 wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I recall China passed an urgent law at lightening speed to enforce safe practice in the bio-virus-labs across the nation a few weeks after the outbreak. It might tell you something. Also it refused fiercely to let foreign experts in to investigate, which is also hard to explain other than something MUST be hidden at all costs.

"urgent law at lightning speed" is unnecessary and extreme bias. It might tell me something if you included a source. A rational actor would take the opportunity to do this regardless of whether or not the source was known at the time. If it were even a possibility, you would hope they would use the outbreak as a reminder to take containment practices as seriously as possible. Whether or not to allow foreign investig…

When SARS came out the initial reaction was also to hide, until it's leaked to the west, China then opened the door to let foreign experts help. This time it obviously acted very differently, after more than one year, no serious investigation can proceed still.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#587

Post by cletus »

I see three broad dimensions to any lab origin theory:

1. It was human made or found. Human made is common QAnon fodder. I don't believe anyone serious finds that idea credible. Nature is probably far better at concocting new viruses than humans are. And if it was found, where did it come from? I'm honestly surprised DNA sequencing hasn't been more effective in answering this question thus far;

2. Whether it was deliberately released or accidentally leaked. Note that a deliberate release doesn't have to be state-sponsored. It could be a rogue employee like the Anthrax letters from ~20 years ago; and

3. Whether the lab knew what they had or they didn't. Coronaviruses are studied by Chinese labs. They could have hundreds of samples without realizing that one in particular can infect humans and be transmissible effectively and asymptomatically. I suspect that in any version of the lab origin theory that it's more likely they didn't know what they had. That would take human testing.

What does seem clear is that the CCP isn't particularly interested in getting to the bottom of this. I wouldn't take that as evidence of them having more knowledge of this than we do. I suspect they simply don't want to know. More to the point, I think the CCP sees efforts to find out as a direct attack on China.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#588

Post by [deleted] »

IAmGraydon wrote: post #519
m0llusk wrote: post #483

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You should look up some of the leaked videos on the Internet. There was in fact a huge spike in cases early on and people were dropping dead in the street. That was the freak out that led to the Communist Party not being able to keep a lid on the whole mess. It wasn't just sick people showing up in hospitals in huge numbers, it was dead bodies lying in the streets. The thing is that whether this came from a lab or no…

>You should look up some of the leaked videos on the Internet. There was in fact a huge spike in cases early on and people were dropping dead in the street. Which is also weird because we all know Covid doesn't make people suddenly drop dead in the street.

[deleted]

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#589

Post by nemothekid »

snicksnak wrote: post #503
ckardat123 wrote: post #495

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would think that the reason that people calling COVID the "China virus" are accused of racism is that there is really no reason to use that term for the virus outside of trying to offend others.

Can we call it the chinese variant then? Because we do that with the new mutations: the brazilian variant, british variant, south african variant

>Can we call it the chinese variant then?

Ok sure. What did you win? Have you now advanced science and solved all unknown problems in virology? Was the progress of mankind so impeded by the inability to call COVID-19 the Chinese variant? Seriously ask yourself why you are so hung up on being able to call it the China virus. Are doctors around the world completely unable to sequence this virus because they can’t say the word “China virus”, or does it just make you feel better to be able to prescribe blame to a group of people?

I think we can agree there’s open mystery about the origin of the virus without getting caught up in culture war trite. British people aren’t being murdered because of some loose connection to a virus, the very least you could do is show some tact and try not to insert your bias at every opportunity.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#590

Post by masswerk »

Shouldn't we see rather distinct spread patterns for the two scenarios (a lab accident and contaminated frozen food at the market)? I guess, the patterns, social contacts, habits and locations of a typical lab worker or scientist is quite distinct from those of a typical person working at the market, even in the CPR.

(In the first case, the market may be expected to be just another case in a wider spread pattern with a gravitational center involving typical contacts and residential areas of lab workers, in the second one, we may expect to observe an initial spread around the market and the living quarters of those, who work there.)

Even without a patient zero, there should be some indications regarding clusters in early observations.

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