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Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

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Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#331

Post by r00fus »

hospadar wrote: post #260

Like, so what? Should we care a lot about the safety and security of places where dangerous infectious diseases are studied? sure! I think we should care A LOT MORE about our [apparent total lack of] ability to quickly deploy effective public health responses to new infectious diseases (regardless of their source). Maybe it was an accident at a sloppy lab, ok, so labs on the other side of the planet in sovereign coun…

This ^^^ so very much. Think of it like infosec angle: Yes, it's interesting to identify and neutralize hostile actors, but the 100% more effective solution is to have defense-in-depth and system resilience in place - because you control that, but you can't control the external actors unless you have a god-complex.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#332

Post by musha68k »

loveistheanswer wrote: post #88

Peter Daszak, member of the WHO Covid origins team, was also the project lead for the US funded gain of function research of novel coronaviruses that was going on at the Wuhan BSL4 lab. There is historical precedent of authorities blaming local meat markets to cover up a lab leak. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sverdlovsk_anthrax_leak

Interesting pointer there but his answer on the issue seems plausible as well. Apparently they were "just fishing for funding":

https://twitter.com/PeterDaszak/status/1292819714935271424

I'm not a virologist but every TWiV episode I listened to, there was convincing talk about natural reservoirs being the most likely source of the virus.

AFAIR they also expect similar events to happen increasingly all over the world due to side effects of the climate crisis and global heating.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#333

Post by xdavidliu »

esja wrote: post #274
Invictus0 wrote: post #249

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm with you, the parent's sarcasm is really malformed. They're claiming that EcoHealth has conflicts of interests that led them to disavow the WIV lab theory.

Are you saying EcoHealth/Daszak do not have material conflicts of interest in this matter? On what basis?

It doesn't seem to me like parent is disputing the factual accuracy of the argument, but rather saying that the sarcasm was not well constructed (possibly because of the multiple negatives, which require a certain amount of gymnastics to understand), and is thus not as effective as it could be.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#334

Post by danudey »

hsitz wrote: post #275
hospadar wrote: post #260

Like, so what? Should we care a lot about the safety and security of places where dangerous infectious diseases are studied? sure! I think we should care A LOT MORE about our [apparent total lack of] ability to quickly deploy effective public health responses to new infectious diseases (regardless of their source). Maybe it was an accident at a sloppy lab, ok, so labs on the other side of the planet in sovereign coun…

Yes, exactly. I would add, though, that the "Wuhan lab leak theory", in many people's minds, seems to be combined with a suspected intentional act by the Chinese government, to unleash a dangerous virus on the rest of the world. I think we should dismiss that part of the theory (it's of course not impossible, just not likely, mostly fun fodder for conspiracy nuts). But as far as infectious disease labs all across the…

Let's also add in that the "Wuhan lab leak theory", combined with the "China virus" nomenclature, has resulted in huge increases in racist and white supremacist violence against people of Asian descent.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#335

Post by Pyramus »

3327 wrote: post #277
hospadar wrote: post #260

Like, so what? Should we care a lot about the safety and security of places where dangerous infectious diseases are studied? sure! I think we should care A LOT MORE about our [apparent total lack of] ability to quickly deploy effective public health responses to new infectious diseases (regardless of their source). Maybe it was an accident at a sloppy lab, ok, so labs on the other side of the planet in sovereign coun…

Maybe if it wasn’t CONCEALED by the government in the country of origin, our lives would be different now. Talk about that will you?

> our lives would be different now.

How? Following your line of reasoning, it makes the US response look even worse. No enemy of the US would have imagined that US citizens will turn wearing a mask into a political statement. Before the pandemic, the US was rated #1 in epidemic preparedness. No one had imagined that it will become societal consensus to sacrifice 500k American lives.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#336

Post by 8note »

hayst4ck wrote: post #154

https://project-evidence.github.io/ I found this to be an extremely engaging read and compelling story. TLDR; The likelihood of it being lab related is high. The likelihood of it being directly malicious low. My Take form reading it: The lab in question needed to collect bats for research. A person who collected the bats did so with insufficient safety and is likely patient 0.

Based on your takeaway, I'm looking for this to convince me that it's more likely that it's a researcher caught it first than anyone else handling bats.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#337

Post by esja »

hospadar wrote: post #260

Like, so what? Should we care a lot about the safety and security of places where dangerous infectious diseases are studied? sure! I think we should care A LOT MORE about our [apparent total lack of] ability to quickly deploy effective public health responses to new infectious diseases (regardless of their source). Maybe it was an accident at a sloppy lab, ok, so labs on the other side of the planet in sovereign coun…

Would you write the same response about chemical or nuclear weapons research? I hope not.

Yet we've just spent the last year proving that biological warfare will be potentially more deadly than chemical or even nuclear warfare.

Decades ago we banned research into those other weapons and implemented international treaties and inspection regimes.

Even the possibility that this could have been a lab leak should scare the whole world and motivate a massive reform of these labs and the experiments people are conducting.

I hope the people in power don't share your complacency.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#338

Post by dvt »

michaelbuckbee wrote: post #302
dvt wrote: post #292

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We should get better at responding fast and saving lives (my opinion). I think you're wrestling with a strawman here, no one's arguing the inverse. But in any investigation (arson, murder, etc.) the details do matter -- where, how, what weapon, when, and so on.

Respectfully, there is still a sizeable contingent of the US population that thinks that the pandemic is "no worse than the annual flu" and that efforts to combat the pandemic are at best a wild over-reaction and at worst some kind of sinister plot by the government.

> Respectfully, there is still a sizeable contingent of the US population that thinks that the pandemic is "no worse than the annual flu" and that efforts to combat the pandemic are at best a wild over-reaction and at worst some kind of sinister plot by the government.

Respectfully, this just simply isn't supported by the data and the dozens upon dozens of polls available[1]. Sure, there's a bunch of QAnon weirdos out there or staunch Alex Jones acolytes, but most regular folks have been taking it more or less seriously: social distancing and mask-wearing has been almost universally adopted. Last year in April and May, the percentage of people that "weren't worried" about Covid-19 was in the single digits. And there is some mistrust out there, but it's been well-earned: 15 days to flatten the curve has turned into 365 days of economic and social limbo.

[1] https://news.gallup.com/poll/308222/coronavirus-pandemic.asp...

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#339

Post by pmiller2 »

asdff wrote: post #115
crx07 wrote: post #21

This has honestly been my unbiased opinion since essentially day 1. I believe that the release was almost certainly a complete accident, but there's just no realistic chance a novel virus coincidentally originates in the same isolated place as a lab that specializes in that exact same type of virus. The denialists, including the WHO and CDC and everyone else, need to get real and own up to what happened and figure ou…

I'm not sure that this virus even behaves in this way where a BSL-4 worker could become infected. What we know now is that you need a concentration of virus particles over time in order to come down with the disease (in other words, you are most likely to catch it drinking in your friends living room for 4 hours with an infected person, than in a grocery store where an infected person might cough on you in line but t…

That's a good point. I have a hard time as well believing anyone who was even coming close to following BSL-4 protocols would get infected with this.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biosafety_level#Biosafety_leve...

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#340

Post by enchiridion »

danudey wrote: post #334
hsitz wrote: post #275

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, exactly. I would add, though, that the "Wuhan lab leak theory", in many people's minds, seems to be combined with a suspected intentional act by the Chinese government, to unleash a dangerous virus on the rest of the world. I think we should dismiss that part of the theory (it's of course not impossible, just not likely, mostly fun fodder for conspiracy nuts). But as far as infectious disease labs all across the…

Let's also add in that the "Wuhan lab leak theory", combined with the "China virus" nomenclature, has resulted in huge increases in racist and white supremacist violence against people of Asian descent.

It's infuriating. I'm not sure what the solution is though. We can just not talk about the very real lab leak hypothesis because some people are dangerously unstable.
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