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Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

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Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#81

Post by airhead969 »

dang wrote: post #67
airhead969 wrote: post #58

It seems like more Western MSM yellow journalism hating on China with FUD.

Please don't take HN threads into nationalistic flamewar. I've spent a lot of time, energy, and words asking people not to do that in the opposite direction [1]. It applies just as much the other way around. Name-calling, flamebait, and nationalistic provocations take the internet straight to hell. We're trying to avoid that fate here, or at least stave it off [2] a little longer. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsgui…

I'm not. I'm in the US saying "stop attacking China without evidence."

Edit: criticize justly and specifically, not nationalistically. Attacking any group using stretched/thin arguments makes the accusers look weak.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#82

Post by dang »

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #80
tshaddox wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From that second link: > Although they only emerge under artificial conditions in influenza viruses, these furin cleavage sites are found within several branches of the coronavirus family tree. However SARS‐CoV‐2 is the only lineage B coronavirus found with one, and the only other coronaviruses known to have them are only at most 60% identical to this novel coronavirus.

I'm not waynesonfire, but seriously, what is up with people making deliberately misleading claims (e.g. highlighting it is not found in influenza viruses, even though covid virus is not influenza), and then providing a link that specifically debunks the implication they are trying to make . It's like people just depend on nobody following the links they post.

"Please respond to the strongest plausible interpretation of what someone says, not a weaker one that's easier to criticize. Assume good faith."

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#83

Post by ekianjo »

kneel wrote: post #66

IMO it's very likely to have originated in a lab leak. It doesn't matter much however since there is no evidence, and any evidence of such will likely be covered up. Being culpable for a disaster on this scale would be unprecedented in the economic reparations, so much so that we'll likely never find the origins.

> Being culpable for a disaster on this scale would be unprecedented in the economic reparations

True. And not just economic reparations, you can imagine diplomatic relations and all would be severely impacted.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#84

Post by softwaredoug »

New coronavirus pandemics like this aren’t novel. It’s thought many of the boring common cold coronaviruses we don’t think much of started as an outbreak sometime in the past crossing animal-human boundaries

One common cold coronavirus that circulates around had a common ancestor in 1890. Suspiciously timed with the Russian “Flu” pandemic of 1890-1891[1]

(Not that we can just discount the Wuhan lab theory, but a naturally occurring pandemic like this not that weird historically)

1 - https://theconversation.com/a-brief-history-of-the-coronavir...

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#85

Post by roywiggins »

goatinaboat wrote: post #70
crx07 wrote: post #21

This has honestly been my unbiased opinion since essentially day 1. I believe that the release was almost certainly a complete accident, but there's just no realistic chance a novel virus coincidentally originates in the same isolated place as a lab that specializes in that exact same type of virus. The denialists, including the WHO and CDC and everyone else, need to get real and own up to what happened and figure ou…

there's just no realistic chance a novel virus coincidentally originates in the same isolated place as a lab that specializes in that exact same type of virus If it came from somewhere else, why wasn’t the outbreak noticed there first, is the million dollar question. It requires some serious mental gymnastics at this point to believe it didn’t originate in that lab. The only real question is if it was released delibe…

Because winter is flu season, and most of the time the symptoms are impossible to distinguish, even when you're looking?

Sure, China has way more public health capacity than it used to, but we know that COVID can spread silently in a community for a month without anyone noticing, even when we are looking. It happened in California and Seattle in January 2020. Why wouldn't that have happened in, say, rural China in October?

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#87

Post by theptip »

kneel wrote: post #66

IMO it's very likely to have originated in a lab leak. It doesn't matter much however since there is no evidence, and any evidence of such will likely be covered up. Being culpable for a disaster on this scale would be unprecedented in the economic reparations, so much so that we'll likely never find the origins.

> it's very likely to have originated in a lab leak

What evidence is informing this belief? i.e. what is your model for assigning "P>0.5" to the probability here? For example do you think the SARS outbreak circa 2002 was also a lab escape?

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#88

Post by loveistheanswer »

Peter Daszak, member of the WHO Covid origins team, was also the project lead for the US funded gain of function research of novel coronaviruses that was going on at the Wuhan BSL4 lab.

There is historical precedent of authorities blaming local meat markets to cover up a lab leak.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sverdlovsk_anthrax_leak

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#89

Post by wahern »

bugzz wrote: post #56
waynesonfire wrote: post #52

This is definitely not my area of expertise but: role of furin cleavage site in covid: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41392-020-0184-0 "In fact, no influenza virus with a furin cleavage site has ever been found in nature," https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7435492/ Where did this mutation come from?

It's never been found in an influenza virus in nature, but covid isn't an influenza virus. Is this never found in coronaviruses in nature?

"Furin cleavage sites naturally occur in coronaviruses", https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S187350612...

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#90

Post by ekianjo »

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #80
tshaddox wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From that second link: > Although they only emerge under artificial conditions in influenza viruses, these furin cleavage sites are found within several branches of the coronavirus family tree. However SARS‐CoV‐2 is the only lineage B coronavirus found with one, and the only other coronaviruses known to have them are only at most 60% identical to this novel coronavirus.

I'm not waynesonfire, but seriously, what is up with people making deliberately misleading claims (e.g. highlighting it is not found in influenza viruses, even though covid virus is not influenza), and then providing a link that specifically debunks the implication they are trying to make . It's like people just depend on nobody following the links they post.

> However SARS‐CoV‐2 is the only lineage B coronavirus found with one

It's unusual even for coronavirus.

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