Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed • Hacker News Board

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#181

Post by georgeglue1 » Mon, Mar 22, 2021, 8:39 PM UTC

Huffers2 wrote: post #157

If true, I think this would be the first ever case of a novel virus ever being developed in a lab and then accidentally released. If false, then it's yet another viral mutation / species cross over which have happened all the time throughout history. When I hear hoofbeats I think "horses" not "zebras"...

It's obviously super hazy, but it's worth clarifying that being developed in the lab != originating from the lab.

From what I've heard on Chinese social media, there are a bunch of plausible sounding theories.

For a lot of jobs in China, it's expected that there's moderate incompetence or grift.

For example, say the lab has a bunch of extra animal samples (mice, bats, w/e). Someone in the cleaning staff could make a few extra $ by selling those samples to a wholesaler at the local wetmarket (to be turned into dogfood, etc.); maybe they only meant to sell the clean samples, but got things mixed up.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#182

Post by Enginerrrd » Mon, Mar 22, 2021, 8:40 PM UTC

medymed wrote: post #170

woodruffw wrote: post #158

My understanding of the author's central thesis is this: the US, despite its world-class virology and disease study labs, regularly has lapses in procedure that regularly lead to situations in which the public might be exposed. Given that this is happening in our own backyard, we might reasonably expect countries of similar status (like China) to experience similar lapses. That reads as reasonable to me, but raises a…

Other viruses do escape the lab sometimes. The first SARS virus escaped the lab more than once. https://genomebiology.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/gb-...

Both in China no less.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#183

Post by matwood » Mon, Mar 22, 2021, 8:40 PM UTC

hayst4ck wrote: post #154

https://project-evidence.github.io/ I found this to be an extremely engaging read and compelling story. TLDR; The likelihood of it being lab related is high. The likelihood of it being directly malicious low. My Take form reading it: The lab in question needed to collect bats for research. A person who collected the bats did so with insufficient safety and is likely patient 0.

> TLDR; The likelihood of it being lab related is high. The likelihood of it being directly malicious low.

And this sounds like a reasonable possibility to be explored. Accidents happen. Lapses in procedures happen.

The problem is that early on, and still in some circles, lab related equates to malicious bio-weapon and/or China purposely attempting to destroy the world. It's important to separate the two, and hopefully this is a cautionary tale for all labs to review their policies and procedures.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#184

Post by cowmoo728 » Mon, Mar 22, 2021, 8:40 PM UTC

woodruffw wrote: post #158

My understanding of the author's central thesis is this: the US, despite its world-class virology and disease study labs, regularly has lapses in procedure that regularly lead to situations in which the public might be exposed. Given that this is happening in our own backyard, we might reasonably expect countries of similar status (like China) to experience similar lapses. That reads as reasonable to me, but raises a…

COVID-19 is one of the few serious diseases that can transmit when the carrier is asymptomatic. That could be a credible reason why a potential lab leak went unnoticed for long enough to begin uncontrolled community spread.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#185

Post by renewiltord » Mon, Mar 22, 2021, 8:40 PM UTC

woodruffw wrote: post #158

My understanding of the author's central thesis is this: the US, despite its world-class virology and disease study labs, regularly has lapses in procedure that regularly lead to situations in which the public might be exposed. Given that this is happening in our own backyard, we might reasonably expect countries of similar status (like China) to experience similar lapses. That reads as reasonable to me, but raises a…

> if these lapses are so common and so many countries possess the capacity for serious mistakes, why don't we see more regular outbreaks (if not full-blown pandemics) caused by labs? In other words, what makes COVID special?

Perhaps it is not special. One might as well ask what was special about a coin that lands heads three times in a row in its first three flips.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#186

Post by coldtea » Mon, Mar 22, 2021, 8:40 PM UTC

nwah1 wrote: post #164

hetspookjee wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand why WHO is selling it's creditiblity in trade for politics. What is there to gain? Perhaps I am too short sighted but I cannot believe that this is ever the right compromise to take. I also don't understand why they even had the slighest faith in a reliable investigation. After all these months of pushing back on researching accessing the site, they still bowed to their whims. How does this help th…

>I don't understand why WHO is selling it's creditiblity in trade for politics. What is there to gain? Might have something to do with the fact that the leader of the WHO, Dr Tedros Adhanom, was hand picked by the Chinese communist party and won the position over the US and EU's favored choice.

"During its 140th meeting in January 2017, the Executive Board of the WHO shortlisted Tedros as the front runner out of six candidates through two rounds of secret voting. He collected the most votes during both rounds.[citation needed] Tedros "was supported by a bloc of African and Asian countries, including China, which has considerable influence with those members" while "the US, UK and Canada... lent their support to... the British doctor David Nabarro." One observer called it "a really nasty" election."

Basically: "Oh, someone else can play the same game we've played for a century with UN, WHO, IMF, etc. - how dare they?"

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#187

Post by Zenst » Mon, Mar 22, 2021, 8:42 PM UTC

crx07 wrote: post #21

This has honestly been my unbiased opinion since essentially day 1. I believe that the release was almost certainly a complete accident, but there's just no realistic chance a novel virus coincidentally originates in the same isolated place as a lab that specializes in that exact same type of virus. The denialists, including the WHO and CDC and everyone else, need to get real and own up to what happened and figure ou…

I've done security audits and related consulting work upon research labs in my past and the biggest issue they had was - extremist animal activists.

Now I was aware of some reports (nothing official or confirmed) that the Wuham lab was broken into in the summer of 2019.

Interestingly enough their was a lot of political tension at that time involving Hong Kong.

I'm also mindful how China has been rather good at sweeping things under carpets.

So I could speculate how things played out in a way that fits events, but without any smoking gun - it would be just speculation and joining dots that may or may not of been there.

Though even if it was something along the lines of what I'm thinking happened (animal activists with HK connections being politically motivated/manipulated and possibly no idea what type of lab it was beyond they may be hurting animals), the lab was researching virus's from the wild - seeing how they mutate and progress in an effort to see what lays ahead.

So lab event or no lab event - this virus was already in existence in some form and was not a case of if, but when.

One thing I do know, it sure did shine a spotlight upon how connected the World is and also how fragile many supply lines are.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#188

Post by ceejayoz » Mon, Mar 22, 2021, 8:43 PM UTC

AdamJacobMuller wrote: post #134

ceejayoz wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Archived specimens show that Lyme disease was endemic well before the establishment of Plum Island laboratory. > Additionally, Lyme disease was never a topic of research at Plum Island, according to the US Department of Homeland Security and Department of Agriculture. These are facts, too, in your link. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

You should read the actual book, because it addresses both of these points.

How?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lyme_disease#History

> The 2010 autopsy of Ötzi the Iceman, a 5,300-year-old mummy, revealed the presence of the DNA sequence of Borrelia burgdorferi making him the earliest known human with Lyme disease.

Unless it's got conclusive evidence of a functional time machine, it's gonna struggle to explain how a town in Connecticut predates a prehistoric mummy.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#189

Post by Pyramus » Mon, Mar 22, 2021, 8:43 PM UTC

benlumen wrote: post #6

Related - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26389690 (In 2018, US Diplomats Warned of Risky Coronavirus Experiments in a Wuhan Lab - politico.com)

Please check the actual cables before jumping to conclusions https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26447042

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#190

Post by woodruffw » Mon, Mar 22, 2021, 8:43 PM UTC

medymed wrote: post #170

woodruffw wrote: post #158

My understanding of the author's central thesis is this: the US, despite its world-class virology and disease study labs, regularly has lapses in procedure that regularly lead to situations in which the public might be exposed. Given that this is happening in our own backyard, we might reasonably expect countries of similar status (like China) to experience similar lapses. That reads as reasonable to me, but raises a…

Other viruses do escape the lab sometimes. The first SARS virus escaped the lab more than once. https://genomebiology.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/gb-...

I'm not claiming that they don't! The article has multiple examples of viruses escaping either individual containment or the lab outright.

What I'm claiming is that the volume of attributed escapes indicates that the average escape has relatively local consequences. In other words: historically, when everything goes wrong, it hasn't resulted in a global pandemic. What, then, made or makes COVID special?

Maybe the answer is raw numbers, and that it was bound to happen eventually. But "one of these incidents was bound to cause a global pandemic" is the exact same reasoning as the (original, still mainstream?) "wet market" theory. What I'd personally like to know is why I should believe one over the other, apart from human propensity to believe conspiratorial claims.