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Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

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Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#161

Post by tehjoker »

Pretty incredible how far the US media will go to deflect attention from how bad the US response to the pandemic was to China.

"Let me be clear: Labs in Wuhan might not have played any role in the origin of the pandemic. But a year later, no source has been found, and the world deserves a thorough, unbiased investigation of all plausible theories that is conducted without fear or favor."

Okay. So basically this author has no evidence other than the fact that it's very difficult, maybe impossible to identify the site of first transmission. I don't know what progress would look like, but maybe sampling animals in the wild to find a carrier with a genetic signature that looks like an early version?

This is just speculative nonsense to try to hype the government's pivot to China. That's why its in the opinion section, the worst part of the newspaper.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#162

Post by wccrawford »

Huffers2 wrote: post #157

If true, I think this would be the first ever case of a novel virus ever being developed in a lab and then accidentally released. If false, then it's yet another viral mutation / species cross over which have happened all the time throughout history. When I hear hoofbeats I think "horses" not "zebras"...

Why not? There are multiple hurricanes every single year, but I still hear about them. Especially the ones that might affect my area.

But it might be more like: "Yet another hurricane cause by weather." Not really a story, since they all have been. The opposite, though, that'd be a real story: "Hurricane not caused by weather!"

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#163

Post by mancerayder »

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #64
wallawe wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you saying an opinion piece stating that we should leave open the possibility of a leak is misinformation? That doesn't make any sense.

Not OP, but I'm assuming he was arguing that, given that the major social media platforms have said they will remove any Covid information that is misleading, would they even allow posts like this "suggesting the possibility of a Wuhan lab leak is plausible". Note Facebook has previously explicitly banned posts "falsely claiming the virus is man-made". Source: https://www.npr.org/2021/02/08/965390755/facebook-widens-…

That's exactly it. They're not trying to crack down on misinformation, they're just trying to create a monopoly wherein established outlets are able to filter what's True and grey out what is False or Misleading.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#164

Post by nwah1 »

hetspookjee wrote: post #110
totalZero wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sometimes diplomacy means you smile when you don't want to smile. WHO has to play politics until we get this virus under control (ie, vaccines distributed worldwide). If WHO blames China now, in the thick of things, it would damage the world's ability to further study the origins of the virus and the results of Chinese research. Chinese vaccines are being used and studied in many countries worldwide and that is a goo…

I don't understand why WHO is selling it's creditiblity in trade for politics. What is there to gain? Perhaps I am too short sighted but I cannot believe that this is ever the right compromise to take. I also don't understand why they even had the slighest faith in a reliable investigation. After all these months of pushing back on researching accessing the site, they still bowed to their whims. How does this help th…

>I don't understand why WHO is selling it's creditiblity in trade for politics. What is there to gain?

Might have something to do with the fact that the leader of the WHO, Dr Tedros Adhanom, was hand picked by the Chinese communist party and won the position over the US and EU's favored choice.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#165

Post by garmaine »

karmasimida wrote: post #139
garmaine wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you are confusing “lab leak” with “lab manufactured.”

Why would it be more feasible this virus is leaked from the lab other than some wild animals from the market itself? Either can be equally believable yet impossible to prove.

There are cases in Wuhan which predate the wet market cluster. That appears to have been a super spreading event but not the origin.

The bats this disease come from we’re not being sold in the market at this time. They’re out of season. So already the theory is assuming a multi-animal hop (some other wild animal got in contact with a bat and got infected, then captured and moved a thousand kilometers to the wet market and killed).

Meanwhile the bio lab in Wuhan received a sample of infectious coronavirus just months prior to the earliest known case. Within a few weeks of the outbreak while China was still downplaying the disease, the central government passed a rushed emergency safety rules update for these labs, starts pushing back on requests for access, and using state media to throw out a bunch of crazy theories about external origin.

Anyone with half a brain can connect the dots.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#166

Post by draw_down »

mancerayder wrote: post #33

How soon before stuff like this is marked as misinformation if it isn't coming from established media outlets? You know, dangerous conspiracy theories, and all that. Real world consequences, etc. and so forth.

Yes, this is my issue as well. If you contradict the experts, you're a crackpot... but then a couple months later the experts start to say the things the crackpots had been saying... and then it's acceptable.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#167

Post by Pyramus »

roywiggins wrote: post #119
ekianjo wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There were apparently already people with COVID symptoms in Italy back in December 2019. That said, China was already aware of the virus in late 2019. It's all well known.

Well, that's what I mean. Nobody knew COVID was circulating in Italy at the time either. It's easy to miss a new respiratory virus. For it to originate one place and by chance end up exploding in a different metropolitan area doesn't seem unlikely at all.

In fact, simply from a modelling perspective, this is very likely scenario.

If you take an unknown diseases with an R of 2-3, what you will see is a number of smaller clusters, some dying off, before you get the one cluster that becomes the pandemic.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#168

Post by dragontamer »

echelon wrote: post #106
totalZero wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sometimes diplomacy means you smile when you don't want to smile. WHO has to play politics until we get this virus under control (ie, vaccines distributed worldwide). If WHO blames China now, in the thick of things, it would damage the world's ability to further study the origins of the virus and the results of Chinese research. Chinese vaccines are being used and studied in many countries worldwide and that is a goo…

> CDC and other US government officials, on the other hand, must ratchet up their criticism of China as well as WHO. I agree with you there. It's alarming that there are so few PR ramifications for China. The US relies on Chinese manufacturing. If trade ends, the West will suffer. Consumer and industrial goods can't be built, which could incredibly damage the economy. Manufacturing is shifting to other countries - Vi…

> China is building up its navy to protect itself. If they lose the South China Sea, they could be blockaded and starved of energy, resources, and food. They're building to reach parity with the US Navy or even outgun it, and they're trying to stall long enough that they can win should there be an encounter.

China has absolutely no chance to meet head-to-head against a US Carrier Strike Group on neutral territory. Absolutely none, and the US has TEN Carrier Strike Groups.

Ex: If China + US decides that we need to fight over in Antartica, the US will win in nearly every feasible encounter.

-------

China's plan isn't to win or even challenge the Navy on the high seas. Instead, China's plan is to assert military strength with the seas it is close to: asserting military might against Japan, Taiwan, Philippines, Korea, and other local minor powers.

Furthermore: Chinese air-forces can launch from Mainland China to support any hypothetical naval operations.

-------

EX: Its not trying to beat US in a fair fight. China is likely aiming to beat the US in an "unfair fight": any fight close to China's territories + air force + cruise missile range might stand a chance against a US Carrier Strike Group.

A few powerful Chinese ships under the protective cover of cruise-missiles + Chinese airforce is probably the plan. It only will be effective when close to the Chinese coast, but that's all China really cares about.

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#169

Post by garmaine »

tbenst wrote: post #148
garmaine wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you are confusing “lab leak” with “lab manufactured.”

On the contrary. A leak implies that something was contained. Notwithstanding the complete lack of evidence for a leak—and one could waste a lifetime trying to disprove claims that have no evidence-if of natural origin, the virus was already infecting animals and/or people.

The lab had samples of a disease that is remarkably close to COVID-19: https://nypost.com/2020/08/15/covid-19-first-appeared-in-chi...

Re: Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed

#170

Post by medymed »

woodruffw wrote: post #158

My understanding of the author's central thesis is this: the US, despite its world-class virology and disease study labs, regularly has lapses in procedure that regularly lead to situations in which the public might be exposed. Given that this is happening in our own backyard, we might reasonably expect countries of similar status (like China) to experience similar lapses. That reads as reasonable to me, but raises a…

Other viruses do escape the lab sometimes. The first SARS virus escaped the lab more than once.

https://genomebiology.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/gb-...

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