221–230 of 553 posts
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Yet Florida is perfectly ok. Obviously this "8 digit body count" concept is a load of that which makes the grass grow green.
it's okay because only one in one thousand people have died
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At this point we have enough data. The CDC gives an approximate IFR of 0.7% in the US. That would translate to low 7 digits. Also, it's very heavily weighted to the 70+ population. Strictly speaking from a kid's perspective, it would mostly be the experience of losing a grandparent early. It would be sad (as death almost always is) but probably not life-changing.
> At this point we have enough data. The CDC gives an approximate IFR of 0.7% in the US. That would translate to low 7 digits. Also, it's very heavily weighted to the 70+ population. ..with lockdowns in effect enough to keep hospitalization rates below capacity. > Strictly speaking from a kid's perspective, it would mostly be the experience of losing a grandparent early. It would be sad (as death almost always is) bu…
My understanding is that lockdowns didn't really change things significantly, so the "with lockdowns in effect" is not really relevant. See California (extreme lockdowns from the top) vs Florida (a bit of lockdown from the top) and their associated infection rate per 100k, which is nearly the same.
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COVID does worse in warmer climates; it would be useful to see data adjusted for factors such as ventilation, climate, baseline prevalence, viral variants, etc. No one AFAIK has attempted to do any of this work. All I've seen are unsubstantiated claims for each side's agenda. We need to know what hard conditions guarantee an R0 small enough to prevent disease transmission in schools. There has been zero leadership he…
California COVID death rate: 0.146% Florida COVID death rate: 0.155% These numbers are statistically tied. Yet, FL's economy is open, kids are in school, Disney World entertaining tourists. CA's business are closed & kids are depressed and falling behind. (Bad) leadership matters.
Based on excess death counts, the real number for Florida maybe 25-100% higher. See:
https://www.statnews.com/2021/01/25/undercounting-covid-19-d...
https://www.sun-sentinel.com/coronavirus/fl-ne-florida-coron...
https://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/10.2105/AJPH.2020.3061...
I am neither in the U.S. nor a student, not even an extrovert - and I still feel the effects of our local lockdown on my mental stability. So does my wife, who is usually more resilient than I am. This will have a lot of subtle consequences down the line.
Speaking for myself: the biggest consequence for me, in terms of mental health, has been the total erosion of my belief that most people were basically good, and decent, and cared about the welfare of others. It was a choice I made years ago; I wanted to be the sort of person that believed those things, even when there was occasional evidence to the contrary. But 2020 brought a trifecta of social stress that laid bar…
Anyone else find it strange that a country that has often fallen in line with "think of the children" arguments for hypothetical dangers appears to be completely uncaring about very real dangers of social isolation that are impacting our youth?
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It’s not even clear that the hospitalization rate for COVID cases is over 10%, let alone the case-fatality-rate. In fact, it’s pretty clear that it’s not.
Tell that to Italy. Their death rate was in the double digits when hospital capacity was overrun.
Their death rate in April was the same as the peak of the second wave in December.
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Speaking for myself: the biggest consequence for me, in terms of mental health, has been the total erosion of my belief that most people were basically good, and decent, and cared about the welfare of others. It was a choice I made years ago; I wanted to be the sort of person that believed those things, even when there was occasional evidence to the contrary. But 2020 brought a trifecta of social stress that laid bar…
Are things really that different than they were before though? I still chat with my neighbors, doctors etc etc... everyone is just as friendly as before. I think it’s just our main connection to the outside world has been doomscrolling... I don’t think the people in this world are that different. They are good, caring, loving... despite what some would have us believe.
I don't want to venture into off-topic political stuff here. And, let's just acknowledge that everything about the pandemic has sucked pretty much whoever you are; the number of dead people, the even greater number of people who have suffered in some other way, whether through illness or isolation or the loss of employment or business or time at school with friends and classmates. You can pick pretty much any aspect of the pandemic and have valid criticisms for how it was handled.
But the worst part of it all was how people reacted to it. That public health and safety were perverted into political identities. That so many people became so aggressively opposed to the welfare of others.
It wasn't a small, isolated thing, and I don't think people should be described as good, and caring, and loving, while they identify with and support so many terrible things.
Anyone else find it strange that a country that has often fallen in line with "think of the children" arguments for hypothetical dangers appears to be completely uncaring about very real dangers of social isolation that are impacting our youth?
The issue with covid is now the mutants. England did not lock down the schools this past winter and the B117 spread thru the schools into the wider population. Brazil and its variant seems to be even worse and they basically let the virus rip from day 1. These new variants are more lethal and more transmissible. So now we are really screwed unless the vaccine proves effective enough with masks to slow the spread. And…
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They were balancing it against what they saw in Italy: allowing the virus to get out of hand and overwhelm the hospital system and your death rate from covid jumps into the double digits. Kids would be pretty depressed being surrounded by a 8 digit body count in the US too.
The death rate from Covid is not double digits in Italy or any other country. Where are your numbers coming from?
Anyone else find it strange that a country that has often fallen in line with "think of the children" arguments for hypothetical dangers appears to be completely uncaring about very real dangers of social isolation that are impacting our youth?