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Neutralizing antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 variants after infection, vaccination

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Re: Neutralizing antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 variants after infection, vaccination

#121
post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All the more reason to stop all strains as soon as possible. If more contagious strains can be knocked below the sustainability threshold then they'll die out too.

It is not possible to stop all strains. SARS-CoV2 has multiple zoonotic reservoirs, transmits easily, and persists in the population via asymptomatic infection. We have eradicated one human virus in all of history, and it took a highly effective vaccine and a hundred years. The long tail is very long.

It is still important to stop this particular strain and to achieve sufficient vaccination levels to achieve herd immunity.

That immunity will likely be durable for many years (based on the somewhat recent study of HCoV-229E).

That will force the virus to mutate to achieve true escape immunity (a strain, not a variant, which can reinfect everyone all over) which will likely come at a cost to fitness, since one or two mutations to spike isn't enough, and there will need to be a few tens of mutations to spike.

That virus strain will not be as transmissible or virulent as what we are dealing with now, because it has had to make those costly "decisions".

And this is important for people who for medical reasons cannot be vaccinate or who are at high risk even if they are vaccinated. They're much better off being infected by subsequent strains down the road than being infected with version 1.x of this virus.

This is also what has been observed in the past with 1918 H1N1 which later evolved into seasonal influenza.

Re: Neutralizing antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 variants after infection, vaccination

#122
post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These anecdotes are useful to remind us that many covid survivors still suffer from its damage. The data doesn't quantify these things yet , so cynical people, maybe people especially like you, might do well to pay them attention. Just because you're unlikely to die from covid, doesn't mean you won't be part of the 10% who retain symptoms past 3 months. It's not a binary outcome.

Here’s the problem: you cite anecdotes of second- and third-hand stories that are exceptional at best, implausible at worst, then you claim these to be representative of the common case. They are not. There have now been hundreds of millions of infections, worldwide. Of these, the vast majority (>99.9%) resolve with no major sequelae. These are facts. People need to know this.

'Earlier studies focused largely on long-term effects in hospitalized COVID patients, McCulloch noted. "Our study is unique in characterizing a group consisting of mostly outpatients: 90% of our cohort experienced only a mild COVID-19 illness, yet one-third continue to have lingering effects," she said.

'"Many of these individuals are young and have no pre-existing medical conditions, indicating that even relatively healthy individuals may face long-term impacts from their illness."'

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/91270

0.01%, 33%... Basically a rounding error, right?

Re: Neutralizing antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 variants after infection, vaccination

#123
post #109
post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is not possible to stop all strains. SARS-CoV2 has multiple zoonotic reservoirs, transmits easily, and persists in the population via asymptomatic infection. We have eradicated one human virus in all of history, and it took a highly effective vaccine and a hundred years. The long tail is very long.

Curious, what virus we eradicated?

Smallpox. I think we're close on polio?

Re: Neutralizing antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 variants after infection, vaccination

#124

For people arguing that not being part of a risk group is a reason not to protect yourself, please take a lesson from brazil. Being part of a 'high risk group' does not saves you from infecting other people who are part of such groups. That's basically what happened in brazil: people who were not part of risk groups crowded, encouraged by the president himself[0][1][2]. The number of infected poeple soared and varian…

Sure, the president is responsible for that too https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N3osqOIT7SQ ? One thing is poor people arguing to have to work. Other thing is this "funk train".. The video is from yesterday. You can count, like 2 or 3 masks on the train.

Re: Neutralizing antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 variants after infection, vaccination

#125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wearing masks have benefits beyond covid. Think about how many lives per year we could save from the flu let alone other airborne respiratory viruses if mask wearing was normalized.

I’ve heard it argued that our immune systems need exposure to germs to keep them effective.

I've heard that too. But never does anyone back it up with anything that could be remotely called good science.

Re: Neutralizing antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 variants after infection, vaccination

#126
post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here’s the problem: you cite anecdotes of second- and third-hand stories that are exceptional at best, implausible at worst, then you claim these to be representative of the common case. They are not. There have now been hundreds of millions of infections, worldwide. Of these, the vast majority (>99.9%) resolve with no major sequelae. These are facts. People need to know this.

'Earlier studies focused largely on long-term effects in hospitalized COVID patients, McCulloch noted. "Our study is unique in characterizing a group consisting of mostly outpatients: 90% of our cohort experienced only a mild COVID-19 illness, yet one-third continue to have lingering effects," she said. '"Many of these individuals are young and have no pre-existing medical conditions, indicating that even relatively…

So your best evidence of this phenomenon is an uncontrolled survey of people who knew they had covid, asking them if they feel bad? And the most commonly reported symptom is hypertension, at 13%?

I’ll let the researchers do the talking here:

”Study limitations include small sample size, single study location, and potential bias from self-reported symptoms, the researchers acknowledged.”

This is certainly not a rebuttal to the fact that there have been hundreds of millions of infections globally, yet the cumulative evidence for “long covid” continues to be a vague constellation of self-reported, mostly mild symptoms in a tiny fraction of people.

If even .1% of 100M infections had severe, long-lasting damage, it wouldn’t be a debate. There would be hundreds of thousands of people to point to.

Re: Neutralizing antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 variants after infection, vaccination

#127

For people arguing that not being part of a risk group is a reason not to protect yourself, please take a lesson from brazil. Being part of a 'high risk group' does not saves you from infecting other people who are part of such groups. That's basically what happened in brazil: people who were not part of risk groups crowded, encouraged by the president himself[0][1][2]. The number of infected poeple soared and varian…

Also for selfish reasons. I know a 24 year old ballerina (so a professional athlete) who had it two months ago and is now at 80% lung capacity.

This kind of thing isn't rare

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpsy/article/PIIS2215-0...

Re: Neutralizing antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 variants after infection, vaccination

#128
post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is not possible to stop all strains. SARS-CoV2 has multiple zoonotic reservoirs, transmits easily, and persists in the population via asymptomatic infection. We have eradicated one human virus in all of history, and it took a highly effective vaccine and a hundred years. The long tail is very long.

It is still important to stop this particular strain and to achieve sufficient vaccination levels to achieve herd immunity. That immunity will likely be durable for many years (based on the somewhat recent study of HCoV-229E). That will force the virus to mutate to achieve true escape immunity (a strain, not a variant, which can reinfect everyone all over) which will likely come at a cost to fitness, since one or two…

“That virus strain will not be as transmissible or virulent as what we are dealing with now, because it has had to make those costly "decisions".”

I’m not convinced you can absolutely guarantee these changes will make the virus less dangerous, we could be unlucky and it could become worse.

Re: Neutralizing antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 variants after infection, vaccination

#129
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So you’d prefer we be like Brazil? Because the alternative for us was not Taiwan or Korea. They went far and beyond what Americans were willing to tolerate. Never mind the bad statistics behind your claim that covid is no worse than the flu. A athlete friend of mine in his 20s has permanent heart damage caused by the virus. Covid-19 is not a joke, no matter how much you wish it was. Americans could be out free, today…

Because the alternative for us was not Taiwan or Korea. They went far and beyond what Americans were willing to tolerate. I'm in Taiwan (and was for SARS in 2003). We had early travel restrictions and have to quarantine for 14-days after returning from abroad, and have to wear a mask on the subway. For the past few months there's been a mask rule at some indoor venues but it still allows for restaurants and bars to s…

I agree, Taiwan of all countries arguably handled Covid best. It seems irresponsible to discuss Covid policies without reference to, and good understanding of, Taiwan.

I found that people in the West, often simply don't believe me when I tell them that Taiwan didn't lock down at all, and had hardly any Covid deaths. Reactions I have come across have been: "yeah but Taiwan is a dictatorship" and "They are lying about numbers ..." The amount of ignorance is astonishing.

I think it's a psychological problem: most people are perfectly happy to believe that their home countries have somewhat flawed political systems, but find it near impossible to accept that they are orders of magnitude worse than some others.

Re: Neutralizing antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 variants after infection, vaccination

#130
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So you’d prefer we be like Brazil? Because the alternative for us was not Taiwan or Korea. They went far and beyond what Americans were willing to tolerate. Never mind the bad statistics behind your claim that covid is no worse than the flu. A athlete friend of mine in his 20s has permanent heart damage caused by the virus. Covid-19 is not a joke, no matter how much you wish it was. Americans could be out free, today…

Because the alternative for us was not Taiwan or Korea. They went far and beyond what Americans were willing to tolerate. I'm in Taiwan (and was for SARS in 2003). We had early travel restrictions and have to quarantine for 14-days after returning from abroad, and have to wear a mask on the subway. For the past few months there's been a mask rule at some indoor venues but it still allows for restaurants and bars to s…

> What was so "far and beyond what Americans were willing to tolerate"?

All of these things:

> We had early travel restrictions and have to quarantine for 14-days after returning from abroad, and have to wear a mask on the subway.

There have been multiple people shot for the audacity of asking customers to weak masks.

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