Ghana will no longer sell cocoa to Switzerland • Hacker News Board

Re: Ghana will no longer sell cocoa to Switzerland

#401

Post by imtringued » Sat, Mar 20, 2021, 1:16 PM UTC

tshaddox wrote: post #244

pydry wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>if local goods can't be produced at a price that is commensurately low, then the fledgingly country's wage earners have their purchasing power reduced If the industry they work in can't compete their entire income is reduced to zero. That can knock out related industries as well and ultimately leave the country exposed to currency collapse and hyperinflation as the exporting countries decide that this country has no…

> If the industry they work in can't compete their entire income is reduced to zero. But I thought we're talking about a time period before that industry even exists.

They still have a very important cocoa industry that employs people. If they cease trade and the chocolate industry does not grow quickly enough then some of those farmers will quit.

Re: Ghana will no longer sell cocoa to Switzerland

#402

Post by inglor_cz » Sat, Mar 20, 2021, 1:21 PM UTC

the_af wrote: post #276

Andrew_nenakhov wrote: post #271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I thought it has more to do with weather, particularly ~300 sunny days per year.

It was a bit of both. I think I first read about this in Lessig's Free Culture [1], but even Wikipedia mentions some of this: somewhat ironically because of the MPAA's current heavy-handed tactics, Hollywood was founded on piracy and patents infringement. Some moviemakers moved West to explore new territories and climates (Wikipedia mentions D.W. Griffith) but others soon followed suit in order to avoid Edison's pate…

"but without copyright there will be no writers"

Well, without copyright, writers would find it hard to live off their work, but contemporary copyright has outgrown its usefulness and it wasn't writers who pushed for extensions.

Let us get back to the original 14+14 model, but how, against a determined resistance of entrenched interests?

Re: Ghana will no longer sell cocoa to Switzerland

#403

Post by imtringued » Sat, Mar 20, 2021, 1:22 PM UTC

rsj_hn wrote: post #309

m12k wrote: post #15

I'm reading the book The Divide at the moment. It makes the argument that it takes time and the right conditions to build up an industry - infrastructure needs to be built, education and a skilled labor pool with the necessary know-how as well. To begin with, a fledgling industry in a developing country cannot compete with those of already industrialized countries - these are already so effective that they can underc…

This is called the "infant industry" argument, and it has been made since at least the 16th Century, most famously by Antonio Serra, a proto-mercantilist. This idea of raising tarrifs on imports and then using the money to protect domestic industries has been tried in Latin America in the 60s and 70s, in Africa, and in many places. The results are mixed. The problem with infant industry is that you get a group of loc…

Even if we assume that protectionism is good in this case, there is actually a flaw in how they enact that protectionism. Ceasing trade with Switzerland can hurt farmers if the domestic industry doesn't grow fast enough. At the same time the entire idea behind ceasing trade with Switzerland is being based on the idea that your are cutting off supply to a competitor. Similar to cutting off oil exports to a nation you are at war with. If Switzerland can find a different country to import cocoa from, this could backfire spectacularly. The real answer would have been to ban imports of processed goods like chocolate. That way you won't get into this weird situation where your country is flooded with cocoa and chocolate that fails to compete against Swiss chocolate.

Re: Ghana will no longer sell cocoa to Switzerland

#404

Post by inglor_cz » Sat, Mar 20, 2021, 1:23 PM UTC

kiba wrote: post #322

mpoteat wrote: post #296

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The theory is that nobody will invest in e.g. researching how to build a complicated lumber cutting machine if they don't have protections against their competitor copying the results. Let's say this research costs 1 million dollars, and the company bankrolls this via a loan. They build it and are successful, and begin paying it off. Their competitor copies their idea, and exploits the fact that they have more capita…

So, under a zero protection scheme it is optimal to wait until your competitor invests in research, and then just steal it. Which is what happens on a geopolitical level where there is no feasible enforcement possible. Is it such a bad thing? The United States did it in order to industrialize and I would say that's a good thing.

It depends on how much the invention cost in the first place.

Some inventions are pretty expensive, like mRNA vaccines. If there is no way to profit from them, no one will spend crazy money on the research.

(Notably, mRNA was originally researched by the academic sector, but it did not recognize the importance of the topic and Katalin Karikó had to move to the private sector to finish her work.)

Re: Ghana will no longer sell cocoa to Switzerland

#405

Post by imtringued » Sat, Mar 20, 2021, 1:24 PM UTC

flavius29663 wrote: post #154

enriquto wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> So much like we allow children time to learn in school before we expect them to compete in the job market, we should allow developing countries to employ protectionistic policies This sounds a bit paternalistic and condescending. I guess that first and foremost the "first world" should stop financing horrible dictatorships and wars in the ex-colonies. That would be a good, honest start.

> should stop financing horrible dictatorships When you do that and even take down the dictator (Gadafi), you end up with a worse government, or no government at all. We can all agree Saddam Hussein was a horrible dictator supported by the US, look at Iraq now, is it better off without Saddam? There is no clear cut, and it seems like whatever the west is doing or abstaining from doing it's going to attract hate. We a…

>I think we can all agree China is a horrible dictatorship, how exactly can we stop financing it, since we rely so much on their factories?

Build a second set of factories in a different country.

Re: Ghana will no longer sell cocoa to Switzerland

#406

Post by inglor_cz » Sat, Mar 20, 2021, 1:26 PM UTC

audunw wrote: post #119

killtimeatwork wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's where China was smart I guess. They didn't sign any treaty which forced them into free trade or IP protection, but instead slowly allowed their industries to build up via IP theft and strong protectionism. Now they have giant companies on par with the West's. Whereas everyone who joined the EU in the decade of 2000 (and the Washington Consensus before that in the nineties) is now a pawn of the Western capital…

I really think China is making a huge mistake actually. See how TSMC (Taiwan) and Samsung are free to buy ASMLs EUV machines, while China is blocked. Part of that is due to their rampant IP theft. Why sell machines to China if they're just going to copy them? China also messed up big time by enforcing their 1 child policy, and taking so long to open up and industrialize. They're far behind economically compared to wh…

The one child policy is an example of a highly organized authoritarian society making a big, potentially fatal mistake, because no real debate with genuine dissent could be had.

That said, it is possible that China will reverse this self-made problem by developing and mandating use of artificial wombs or something similar. Authoritarian societies do not have many ethical scruples when it comes to problem solving.

Re: Ghana will no longer sell cocoa to Switzerland

#407

Post by imtringued » Sat, Mar 20, 2021, 1:26 PM UTC

pastacacioepepe wrote: post #113

sandworm101 wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> a fledgling industry in a developing country cannot compete with those of already industrialized countries Except that often they do. With lower safety/environmental standards, lower wages, and lower expectations many "developing" countries can undercut the labor markets of developed countries, operating advanced manufacturing at far reduced costs. Many would ague that is exactly how China has risen to power. A re…

> With lower safety/environmental standards, lower wages Well, no, thanks. I'd rather not be forced to enslave my people in order to compete with western capitalism.

Rich people get to choose, poor people must obey. Why would you voluntarily decide to stay poor if you had the choice to become rich?

Re: Ghana will no longer sell cocoa to Switzerland

#408

Post by mbg721 » Sat, Mar 20, 2021, 1:28 PM UTC

imtringued wrote: post #407

pastacacioepepe wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> With lower safety/environmental standards, lower wages Well, no, thanks. I'd rather not be forced to enslave my people in order to compete with western capitalism.

Rich people get to choose, poor people must obey. Why would you voluntarily decide to stay poor if you had the choice to become rich?

The freedom of no longer spending resources keeping up with the Joneses?

Re: Ghana will no longer sell cocoa to Switzerland

#409

Post by imtringued » Sat, Mar 20, 2021, 1:28 PM UTC

pgsimp wrote: post #319

m12k wrote: post #15

I'm reading the book The Divide at the moment. It makes the argument that it takes time and the right conditions to build up an industry - infrastructure needs to be built, education and a skilled labor pool with the necessary know-how as well. To begin with, a fledgling industry in a developing country cannot compete with those of already industrialized countries - these are already so effective that they can underc…

It sounds like reinventing the wheel. Why not import the knowledge, rather than develop it again from scratch? Maybe you can imagine it could work with chocolate, but take something more complicated like cars, computers or phones. It seems absurd to demand non-industrialized countries should develop all those things by themselves, while developed nations stand by. At the very least it would take decades, while people…

>It sounds like reinventing the wheel. Why not import the knowledge, rather than develop it again from scratch?

This is why you should let foreign investors into your country. If Switzerland would build chocolate factories in Ghana everyone would be happy and in 30 years non Swiss chocolate industry would grow organically until the Swiss companies can no longer compete.

Re: Ghana will no longer sell cocoa to Switzerland

#410

Post by imtringued » Sat, Mar 20, 2021, 1:30 PM UTC

refurb wrote: post #376

m12k wrote: post #15

I'm reading the book The Divide at the moment. It makes the argument that it takes time and the right conditions to build up an industry - infrastructure needs to be built, education and a skilled labor pool with the necessary know-how as well. To begin with, a fledgling industry in a developing country cannot compete with those of already industrialized countries - these are already so effective that they can underc…

Singapore developed very rapidly despite opening themselves up to international trade quite early. The only competitive advantage Singapore had was rule of law and stability.

It's pretty sad that Tunisia and Morocco are the only north African countries with a low corruption index (and by low I mean relative to other African countries). Considering how close they are to Europe it's a waste of a continent.