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Covid herd immunity is probably impossible

nature.com

81–90 of 165 posts

Re: Covid herd immunity is probably impossible

#81
post #71
post #41

HCoV-OC43 is an endemic betacoronavirus very similar to SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19). We don't have significant herd immunity to it. Instead most people get infected as youths and develop a level of immunity which protects against severe symptoms during subsequent reinfections. But it still kills frail elderly and immunocompromised patients. We don't have proof of when HCoV-OC43 first emerged but circumstantial evidence ind…

Well, we are already at roughly .04% worldwide deaths, and that with quite some doing to contain the disease in most of the world. I would suggest that letting COVID-19 run it's course, the numbers would be quite a bit higher, and even with current measures in place and vaccinations underway, we will certainly exceed .06% by the end of the year.

Is it possible however they are attributing death counts in 1890 are different than they are today? Maybe if they used the same standards for who dies today that they did in 1890 the n umbers back then could be higher?

Re: Covid herd immunity is probably impossible

#82

I am truly baffled why the epidemiology community ever thought herd immunity will work. There is ample evidence that it is not a panacea. e.g. influenzae, hepatitis, meningitis, measles, mumps, rubella, yellow fever.

Did the epidemiology community ever think that? I remember as early as March of last year, epidemiologists saying that herd immunity was not the way forward, and that this would likely become endemic. It seemed to mostly be reporters and politicians who pushed the herd immunity angle.

For a while early on allowing the virus to spread through the population, with limited distancing and lockdown measures to control the rate of spread, in order to achieve herd immunity was official British government policy.

I'm not knocking them to be honest. In the early months so little was known for sure that it was a matter of making best estimates, and as better data came in they quickly adapted their strategy.

Re: Covid herd immunity is probably impossible

#83
post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because it is so infectious, it will go through an entire herd or farm within days and eventually cause mutations and jump back to humans. Citation needed

The culling of the Mink Farms in Denmark should be evidence enough that it can travel through animals. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/05/pollution-fear... The fact that it already mutated going through a bat or pangolin before going back to humans suggests this is based in sound evidence.

Not saying I don't believe it. But a government doing something is not even close to proof.

Re: Covid herd immunity is probably impossible

#84

I think the biggest win will be disinfecting shopping cart handles. A few years before, I even have posts about it, how it didn't make sense that these where not disinfected during Flu season. I thought it was disgusting actually since people are handling food, between touching these handles. We will probably get some innovation in face masks too. For anyone in the construction/renovation industry having access to be…

I think facemasks are going to be the biggest change to daily life that I don't see going away. 2020 had a nearly non-existent flu season and that is likely related to all the COVID restrictions (I think facemasks being a key). If I were to guess, I think people wearing facemasks when they are sick (or even just through flu season) is going to be a lot more common and socially acceptable from now on. Hopefully that w…

The biggest change will be WFH or online learning when you feel like you might just be a little bit sick. That alone should put a huge dent in flu season.

Re: Covid herd immunity is probably impossible

#85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The way forward requires coming to terms with the fact that none of this needed to happen in the first place. This disease is really just not that deadly for non-elderly and non-obese people, and we've known for a while. Every institution under the sun failed. We say we need to trust the science, but the scientists were all wrong: LANL put out a preprint paper that estimated r0 at ~7 near the beginning of the pandemi…

I don't really wanna be part of a society that sacrifices the old and unfit at the expense of the whatever point you are trying to make. 500,000 COVID deaths across the country shouldn't be taken lightly. I am surprised if you are taking all "scientists" as a collective group that you are focusing on early attempts to create models rather than the delivery of a vaccine (by scientists) and overall improvement of disea…

> I don't really wanna be part of a society that sacrifices the old and unfit at the expense of the whatever point you are trying to make.

That's an easy way to dismiss the real harm that has been done with lockdowns. If it's cost-free, of course, let's value and protect all life. But these lockdowns have a huge impact on people, too. It's a trolley problem, can we at least be honest about that?

Re: Covid herd immunity is probably impossible

#86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Because it is so infectious, it will go through an entire herd or farm within days and eventually cause mutations and jump back to humans. So it will never go away and we need to prepare for it. This is also one of the main mechanisms for antibiotic resistance in bacteria that infect humans[1]. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antimicrobial_resistance#Food_...

Long-term, antibiotic resistance scares me more than covid.

1: Agreed.

2: One of the problems a lot of people see barring the use of bacteriophage therapy for combating bacterial infection in the clinic is the really fine specificity of most phages to their hosts. The skeptics will suggest that you'd need to essentially design a new phage therapy for each individual infection.

With the advances we're seeing in microfluidics, diagnostics, gene sequencing, computational biology, laboratory automation, and the theory of precision medicine, that host specificity can turn from a disadvantage to an advantage. We know there are a lot of human-dwelling bacteria we wouldn't want to knock but can't save from a broad-spectrum treatment. With a personalized phage therapy, this isn't as much of a concern.

Re: Covid herd immunity is probably impossible

#87
post #73
post #64

virus spread is O(n^2) vaccination is O(n) if you want to beat the virus, seems the answer is to genetically engineer a weak variant with a bigger reproduction and let it rip? common cold with the covid-19 spike protein?

That wouldn't work as viruses don't compete for a limited resource (as long as they don't kill all infected). So unlike animals, where one species eats the food of the other and can drive it to extinction, this won't work.

Variants do compete for non-immune hosts.

Re: Covid herd immunity is probably impossible

#88

First and foremost SARS-CoV-2 will never go away because it infects animals. Because it is so infectious, it will go through an entire herd or farm within days and eventually cause mutations and jump back to humans. So it will never go away and we need to prepare for it. The main goal is to make it survivable, ie. akin to the flu, and not cause hospitals to get overrun like we have seen so many times around the world…

> The main goal is to make it survivable, ie. akin to the flu, and not cause hospitals to get overrun like we have seen so many times around the world in the last year.

There is a secondary main goal, one that the world should have learned after SARS v1, MERS, or the swine flu: get rid of the conditions that infectious agents need to spread. There's a reason that pandemic events have exploded over the last two decades: we have way too many animals and humans in way too shitty conditions. This means, list not exhaustive:

- end mass farming of animals in conditions that require feeding them with reserve antibiotics, washing meat with chlorine or washing eggs in order to keep the produce at least somewhat safe to serve. Farm animals of all kind (meat, eggs, milk, fur) need space and quality food (thankfully we got... mostly rid of feeding carcasses after BSE). *Keeping the status quo is only going to serve us yet another pandemic*!

- end or massively restrict shipping around animals and animal products across the world to prevent the spread of diseases (like the African Swine Pest/Fever currently making its way across Europe, after wiping out the Chinese pig farms).

- generally, reduce the amount of meat in diets. The less animals are farmed for meat, the lower the risk that some bug jumps species.

- end mass working of people in conditions that are beneficial to spreading of infections agents: enough space, enough closed off space (=ban "open floor" and "cubicle farm" setups), mandatory sick leave, no exceptions, and a mandatory send-home order for employees showing symptoms of respiratory illness. It's not good if someone is forced to come into the office or a restaurant despite having a cough. Also, unsanitary conditions for worker accomodations should be banned (e.g. no "pack 10 dudes into a 8 m² room" as it's way too common on farms). Also, to reduce stress (and thus, increase immune system strength), work hours / weeks should be drastically cut: 4 or 6 hours a day, and four days a week.

- drastically reduce unnecessary traveling across the world. This includes a full ban of cruise ships (who have been often enough in the news as sailing norovirus incubators, not to mention their climate impact), but also incentivizing companies to use videocalls and electronic signatures in favor of flying staff across the oceans just to sign a contract and other similar absurdities.

Most of what I've listed should not only be done as pandemic prevention, but also to protect the climate. I know most of it sounds either expensive or "revolt provoking", yet there is no other scientifically viable choice.

Re: Covid herd immunity is probably impossible

#90
post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most of the diseases you list are examples of herd immunity working in developed world communities. People without immunity to them are pretty safe from them. Herd immunity isn't eradication, it's just a reduction of the likelihood of infection among people who aren't immune themselves.

All of those got to herd immunity by vaccination, not by actually contracting the disease.

It wasn't clear to me that you meant "flatten the curve and ride this out to herd immunity", since this article was about herd immunity via vaccination.
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