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Why in the world would you own bonds?

bridgewater.com

491–500 of 532 posts

Re: Why in the world would you own bonds?

#491

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is the answer when the shortage is an abrupt, acute disruption in the money supply. A massive number of people were made unemployed by the pandemic. We had lines at food pantries stretching miles long. If you recall, at the beginning of the pandemic we we had farms ploughing under crops for lack of demand. Potatoes stacking up to high heavens, farmers offering them free to anyone who'd arrive with a bag to transpo…

We didn't have an abrupt, acute disruption in the money supply, though - at least not a negative one. The quantity of money available went up by 40% in March 2020, and velocity went down correspondingly. We had an abrupt, acute disruption in the labor supply: people were unable to work. We also had large disruptions in trade and in demand. This is not 2009, when there were plenty of people available to work, there wa…

>We didn't have an abrupt, acute disruption in the money supply, though - at least not a negative one. The quantity of money available went up by 40% in March 2020, and velocity went down correspondingly.

I will abuse this opportunity to talk about why inflation is necessary and why the current way of merely increasing the money supply did not cause inflation.

Dollars are like flour. Just another commodity that can be bought. Instead of benchmarking assets against the dollar we start benchmarking the dollar against a theoretical benchmark currency that always retains its value perfectly and never changes. I will call this benchmark "Effort".

For simplicity we will assume that on day one the value of the dollar is exactly 1 effort until the value of the dollar changes (either through a reduction or increase in money supply).

If the dollar is deflationary and the supply goes down over time then it will become worth more than 1 Effort. As I said earlier the dollar is a commodity just like anything else. This means that if the supply of the dollar shrinks then there is a shortage of dollars, exactly the same way there could be a shortage of houses or a shortage of food. We must create more dollars until the dollar is worth around 1 Effort again.

The question is, where is that supposed shortage of dollars? Who exactly is desperate for liquid cash? Definitively not publicly traded companies and their owners. Holders of cryptocurrencies? Maybe but we are reaching deep into trickle down economics because of the small portion of retail traders. There is a case to be made for infrastructure investments and maybe unemployment benefits/stimulus checks but even then the amount of money that is truly needed isn't enough to explain why the quantity should be increased by 40%.

The only thing that is certain is that the wealth transfer effect is not considered undesirable by the Fed and that they would do it again, even if it doesn't solve any real problems.

Re: Why in the world would you own bonds?

#492

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Juiced returns" is a consequence of some investment strategies, but not all. For example, if you aimed to hold a constant-maturity bond portfolio then that involves a degree of enforced trading - you need to sell shorter maturities and buy longer ones as time passes so that you don't end up with a year less maturity for each year the passes (or worse if defaults or other events lead to early calls or early payments…

I’d guess that holding bonds until maturity in the form of a bond ladder was more common from 1980-2000, but since then bond funds have become more common.

I think large institutional investors buying credit (as opposed to treasuries - not sure what really happens there now) are still mostly following a buy and hold strategy. But yes, I'd agree that's likely the case for individuals (including through retirement accounts).

Re: Why in the world would you own bonds?

#493
post #245

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do they sell a public stock back and forth between each other? How could one fund put shares up at a given price (especially one below the current bid price) and ensure their partner fund is matched as the buyer? Wouldn’t a market maker need to collude as well? Not saying it’s not true, I genuinely curious as to the mechanics.

Presumably, fund A places a limit buy at price - $n and fund B places a limit sell at price - $n - $0.1

But what about all the other bids and asks in the book? If you’re trying to drive the price down, there will be buy orders at higher prices your sell order will be matched with first.

Re: Why in the world would you own bonds?

#494
post #384

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Non rhetorical question: are there any scenarios where the US defaults on their debts?" 1) Technically they have defaulted in '79, though it was more of a delay. 2) See how divided politics has become. What happens if the US hits the debt ceiling and the other party decide enough is enough and wont approve appropriate borrowing capacity and all budget. Given divisive politics of recent does this seem that far fetche…

Well in the cases of number 3, 5, 6 and 7 in these cases the Feds will just print the money - technically it is just a flip in their computer system and also in practice the difference is not that big - it changes a fixed term debt to a on-demand debt. The only thing stopping it can be a political will - but I think the stigma of not paying debts is higher than the stigma of inflation - so most probably it will be do…

> I think the stigma of not paying debts is higher than the stigma of inflation

This would depend on the level of inflation. Higher than normal, probably. Extremely high, like ~30%+ its reset time I would suspect.

With the printing money, there has to be a limit. Were in the middle of something far beyond normal at any other time. Maybe we'll get through it cleanly but I also suspect todays debt fuelled can kicking events will get taught to students in ~50 years time and they'll sit there going 'what were they thinking'.

Re: Why in the world would you own bonds?

#495
post #333

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's why one keeps 10 years of cash (or equivalent) as a cache to weather those downturns. I'd recommend 6 years, but something that you could draw from while markets recover. It seems as if the cadence of market downturns and recoveries is increasing. It's not a binary choice.

I would love to know who really keeps 10 years of expenses in cash on-hand. I bet you could write the list of non-billionaires on a napkin.

I have 10 years in cash/short term bonds, and 40 years of expenses in stocks. It’s basically roughly a 80/20 portfolio, nothing unheard of, especially for retirees (though I’m still working).

Re: Why in the world would you own bonds?

#496

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would love to know who really keeps 10 years of expenses in cash on-hand. I bet you could write the list of non-billionaires on a napkin.

You could likely write the list, billionaire or not, on a Post-It(tm). I mean maybe billionaires keep 10 years of billionaire lifestyle in cold hard, but that would seem to be a poor use of such a huge chunk of cash.

I have 10 years in cash/short term bonds, and 40 years of expenses in stocks. It’s basically roughly a 80/20 portfolio, nothing unheard of, especially for retirees (though I’m still working).

Re: Why in the world would you own bonds?

#497
post #377
post #333

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's why one keeps 10 years of cash (or equivalent) as a cache to weather those downturns. I'd recommend 6 years, but something that you could draw from while markets recover. It seems as if the cadence of market downturns and recoveries is increasing. It's not a binary choice.

I have never met anyone who does this. Have you?

I have 10 years in cash/short term bonds, and 40 years of expenses in stocks. It’s basically roughly a 80/20 portfolio, nothing unheard of, especially for retirees (though I’m still working).

Re: Why in the world would you own bonds?

#498

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, but the comment you’re replying to points to the fact that your yield on cash can also be negative due to (for example) having to pay to store the cold hard cash somewhere safe.

Banks? Seems like an obvious choice, given they have vaults and guards, etc.

FDIC insurance doesn't cover large balances (above 250k) so that's not free either.

If you're talking about holding a vault full of physical cash, that's not free either. It has to be physically secured in a building and someone wants to be paid for the building and the security.

All of which I said above. Holding cash isn't free at a macro scale, holding cash already has a negative return.

Re: Why in the world would you own bonds?

#499

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Since the beginning of 401ks, the yearly amount being locked away exceeded the amount being cashed out. Thanks to baby boomers retiring, a couple of years ago that reversed, and will stay reversed for the rest of our lives. The first condition creates a natural headwind to increase stock values. The current condition will reverse that.

But generational wealth is increasing, as boomers die their kids get the money...which they then reinvest. The money doesn't just disappear.

That's why they invented cocaine.

Re: Why in the world would you own bonds?

#500
post #285

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t know a whole lot about professional investing, but if watching The Big Short has taught me anything it’s that the pros will say one thing publicly but do the opposite in private until it’s to their advantage to do a 180 and make their private stance actually public. Recently this was Jamie Dimon lambasting Bitcoin all the while a cryptocurrency trading desk was being set up at Chase. The following exchange fr…

It's great that you recognize professional investing isn't something you know a lot about. It's a bit concerning that people believe a hollywood movie has taught them how the industry works. Keep in mind how hollywood portrays "hackers" or "scientists" or "Russians" or whatever group is an outsider or opposition to the protagonist and realize they're doing the same to finance.

Yeah we got the "Hollywood" effect to thank for the popular belief Elon Musk = Tony Stark too...
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