331–340 of 532 posts
Or maybe you are into high-yield bonds, which if traded correctly can have better returns than stocks. Not that I am personally interested in playing that game...
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If the USG (or Europe, or China) still have a strong military, or a lot of influence over the financial sector at that point, you may have a tough time finding a bank to convert your crypto into Fiat. At that point, you’d have to find a country that accepts Bitcoin directly as a payment method or whose financial system can shrug off regulations. That might be harder to find than you think, or might require a signific…
Can you not just go p2p/otc with the crypto and buy a hard asset plus some paper fiat? It’s like cash but even more effective for this purpose.
The real problem with bitcoin is you cannot physically transfer it. I can sell you a USB drive with a wallet on it, but you shouldn't buy it because you can't know if I have a copy of that USB drive in my other pocket. The only way to transfer bitcoin for-real is to submit it to the network and to make sure it's confirmed.
My take is that the censorship-resistant qualities of bitcoin are highly overstated.
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Not that you are necessarily wrong, but I am not sure your examples really show that. The Dow Jones is at an all time high, even adjusting for inflation, and not by a little. Yes, there are dips, but over the long term it seems to hold. As far as I can tell, the following holds true, ∀ t ∈ [1930, now], V(t) > V(t - 30) where V is the inflation-adjusted value of Dow Jones that year.
>over the long term it seems to hold Certainly, but as Keynes said, "in the long term we're all dead". Less dramatically, average annual returns over long periods of time depend dramatically on when you start and stop the calculation. At some point, people want to retire and live off their savings and "wait another 10 years and you'll recover your principal loss" isn't a comforting message.
It's not a binary choice.
We seem to have an entire generation of people who think "stonks can only go up". Similar views were expressed about houses/real estate in 2007. At 47, I'm probably substantially older than the average HN poster, but having lived through the 2001 dotcom implosion and the 2008 financial crisis has given me some perspective. I'm getting some really bad vibes about the sustainability of the the economy and asset markets…
> Similar views were expressed about houses/real estate in 2007. Don't they always go up on average though? Even the much hyped 'housing crash' of 2008 only last for all of 3 yrs till 2011 after which they went zooming past the previous highs.
This is why having a good asset mix is important. You shouldn't have no stocks, because they have really good returns on average. But on the flip side, having only stocks is somewhat risky because it's impossible to tell if you are buying on the topside or bottom side of a bubble.
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What's a ladder attack?
Not an expert at all but the way WSB explains it, it’s where hedge funds trade GME back and forth between each other, gradually lowering the price with each trade. It’s a coordinated effort toy manipulate the market and is illegal. According to WSB the SEC either doesn’t care or fines hedge funds so little for stuff like this that it’s worth it to them to do it anyways (as well as selling naked short and under report…
We seem to have an entire generation of people who think "stonks can only go up". Similar views were expressed about houses/real estate in 2007. At 47, I'm probably substantially older than the average HN poster, but having lived through the 2001 dotcom implosion and the 2008 financial crisis has given me some perspective. I'm getting some really bad vibes about the sustainability of the the economy and asset markets…
The 401k concept has created a demand/supply imbalance and will continue to do so until as many people start cashing out as putting in. Massive government spending and, low interest rates, and other incentives have also dumped a lot of money in the market. Once these demand-increasing trends end, it will be all over. I'm amazed at how long the fiction has been sustained.
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Crash or inflation ?
Not mutually exclusive. Inflation could tick up to 5-6% per annum, forcing the Fed to get back to positive real rates, and in the process bring about an economic crash. I actually think that's the most likely sequence of events.
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It looks like GLD has underperformed SPY overall, with a lower Sharpe ratio (risk adjusted return). Gold did have a good run between 2010-2013 though! https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&t...
Are SPDR GLD shares the same as real gold? I read somewhere that ETFs sometimes have to use special tricks to try and match commodity prices....
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-gold-swiss-fakes-exclusiv...
https://www.celticgold.eu/en/gold-university/fake-gold-bars....
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>over the long term it seems to hold Certainly, but as Keynes said, "in the long term we're all dead". Less dramatically, average annual returns over long periods of time depend dramatically on when you start and stop the calculation. At some point, people want to retire and live off their savings and "wait another 10 years and you'll recover your principal loss" isn't a comforting message.
That's why one keeps 10 years of cash (or equivalent) as a cache to weather those downturns. I'd recommend 6 years, but something that you could draw from while markets recover. It seems as if the cadence of market downturns and recoveries is increasing. It's not a binary choice.
We seem to have an entire generation of people who think "stonks can only go up". Similar views were expressed about houses/real estate in 2007. At 47, I'm probably substantially older than the average HN poster, but having lived through the 2001 dotcom implosion and the 2008 financial crisis has given me some perspective. I'm getting some really bad vibes about the sustainability of the the economy and asset markets…
> Similar views were expressed about houses/real estate in 2007. Don't they always go up on average though? Even the much hyped 'housing crash' of 2008 only last for all of 3 yrs till 2011 after which they went zooming past the previous highs.