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Audi abandons combustion engine development

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Re: Audi abandons combustion engine development

#51

Post by mimac »

loonster wrote: post #46
flukus wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been wondering if the cutoff is actually much earlier. Say 50% of cars on the road are EV, how many gas stations can continue to run profitably with 50% less customers? Even getting and refining the gas requires massive global supply chains to transport and refine, what happens when there's a 50% drop in customers? Do they lose their efficiencies of scale? Do prices rise substantially as this happens? I suspect…

It is my understanding that refineries cannot change the percentage of gasoline that comes from a barrel of oil. If electric cars become as popular as ICE, either gasoline will be used in other things, or other oil distillates will become very expensive. Likely no more cheap air travel, propane, etc. I expect we will hit a wall that will inhibit adoption.

I'm not a petrochemist, but I think reforming/cracking is an old technology which allows you to produce syngas and smaller alkanes (methane, propane etc).

Re: Audi abandons combustion engine development

#52

Post by burlesona »

flukus wrote: post #42
jeppesen-io wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

and when 90+ precent of the cars on the road are EV - where are you going to get gasoline? or think how much an oil change will cost when motor oil becomes a specialty item > You making a lot of assumptions that arent born out by current experience current experience assume easy access to gasoline and motor oil that has been true for 100 years - that will pass in time

I've been wondering if the cutoff is actually much earlier. Say 50% of cars on the road are EV, how many gas stations can continue to run profitably with 50% less customers? Even getting and refining the gas requires massive global supply chains to transport and refine, what happens when there's a 50% drop in customers? Do they lose their efficiencies of scale? Do prices rise substantially as this happens? I suspect…

Gas stations are an interesting case, because most of them make most of their money selling snacks and beer. The gas money largely goes to the oil company.

Re: Audi abandons combustion engine development

#53

Post by cbmuser »

vbezhenar wrote: post #20

I don’t like those developments. I’m living in Kazakhstan which is huge and cold in winter. People are poor and average car age is 20 years (plenty of cars with 30+ age). Everything is just opposed to electric cars use-cases. And of course we’re too small to be able to manufacture our own engines.

Don’t worry, they‘re not going to stop making and selling cars with combustion engines in the foreseeable future for the reasons you mentioned.

This whole electric car hype exists in wealthy urban bubbles only and only because they are heavily subsidized.

These cars are still not competitive in the market after all these years and they are completely useless in cold or rural regions.

Re: Audi abandons combustion engine development

#54

Post by 6pac3rings »

tablespoon wrote: post #38
akamaka wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems inevitable that much of the practical knowledge is lost. Look at how few old sailing ships survive, despite that being the most advanced transportation technology for centuries. The schematics of the engines will survive, but future generations who study them will struggle to understand the design choices that went into them. I’m happy that might change in the world of software, since so much collaboration i…

> The schematics of the engines will survive, but future generations who study them will struggle to understand the design choices that went into them. > I’m happy that might change in the world of software, since so much collaboration is done online, and future historians will have troves of JIRA tickets to dig through. I doubt it. In my experience, JIRA tickets don't capture much information like that. Also, my emp…

A team of six or eight should have a dedicated scribe to link everything that is going on in one coherent whole. That role functions as the interface to the team and onboards new team member when people move on. A team without a scribe creates a new opening for that role for a noob to learn by doing.

Re: Audi abandons combustion engine development

#55

Post by burlesona »

kashprime wrote: post #5

ICE’s have over a century of development behind them now. I’m not going to miss them, but I wonder if there’s a way to ‘archive’ this kind of specialist mechanical engineering knowledge. It may come in handy one day. It’s depressing to read about engineers having to go to the Smithsonian to study the lunar lander to relearn some of the innovations and improvisations made at the time.

I know what you mean, but at the same time that’s just how tacit knowledge works. How many times have you looked back at software you wrote 4+ years ago. There are lines of code in there that you can’t remember the reason for that look strange or out of place, but you have a vague sense that they do something important. The actual knowledge is gone and the only way to rediscover it is via re-working the problem.

If we stop making ICE cars then a lot of the tech around them will be lost, but chances are we won’t care a whole lot because electric cars will be better for most people in most ways, and ICE cars will live on as a historical curiosity.

Re: Audi abandons combustion engine development

#56

Post by flukus »

burlesona wrote: post #52
flukus wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been wondering if the cutoff is actually much earlier. Say 50% of cars on the road are EV, how many gas stations can continue to run profitably with 50% less customers? Even getting and refining the gas requires massive global supply chains to transport and refine, what happens when there's a 50% drop in customers? Do they lose their efficiencies of scale? Do prices rise substantially as this happens? I suspect…

Gas stations are an interesting case, because most of them make most of their money selling snacks and beer. The gas money largely goes to the oil company.

I believe this is right, but gas is still the main reason people stop there. If people aren't stopping to buy gas then they will not be making their impulse/convenience purchases and the gas station still loses their profits.

It's somewhat more complicated because many also function as convenience stores, but most convenience stores near me have already died so I doubt that would save them.

Re: Audi abandons combustion engine development

#57

Post by jvanderbot »

burlesona wrote: post #55
kashprime wrote: post #5

ICE’s have over a century of development behind them now. I’m not going to miss them, but I wonder if there’s a way to ‘archive’ this kind of specialist mechanical engineering knowledge. It may come in handy one day. It’s depressing to read about engineers having to go to the Smithsonian to study the lunar lander to relearn some of the innovations and improvisations made at the time.

I know what you mean, but at the same time that’s just how tacit knowledge works. How many times have you looked back at software you wrote 4+ years ago. There are lines of code in there that you can’t remember the reason for that look strange or out of place, but you have a vague sense that they do something important. The actual knowledge is gone and the only way to rediscover it is via re-working the problem. If w…

I just paid a blacksmith to teach me to forge weld. Someday maybe bored middle-class folks will pay to learn to change oil on a v8 between marathons.

Re: Audi abandons combustion engine development

#58

Post by serf »

dukeofdoom wrote: post #36

Yeah, I was actually thinking of buying a corvette or other sports car. Because I figure it will be a collectible and worth more money than I pay for it down the line. As they stop making gas cars.

> I figure it will be a collectible and worth more money than I pay for it down the line.

This is generally true whether or not ICE vehicles go anywhere.[0]

[0]: https://www.hagerty.com/media/market-trends/most-expensive-c...

Re: Audi abandons combustion engine development

#60

Post by rasz »

jvanderbot wrote: post #57
burlesona wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know what you mean, but at the same time that’s just how tacit knowledge works. How many times have you looked back at software you wrote 4+ years ago. There are lines of code in there that you can’t remember the reason for that look strange or out of place, but you have a vague sense that they do something important. The actual knowledge is gone and the only way to rediscover it is via re-working the problem. If w…

I just paid a blacksmith to teach me to forge weld. Someday maybe bored middle-class folks will pay to learn to change oil on a v8 between marathons.

Brazing? like https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pz9H850dtqY ?
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