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The OODA Loop: How Fighter Pilots Make Fast and Accurate Decisions

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Re: The OODA Loop: How Fighter Pilots Make Fast and Accurate Decisions

#11
post #2

OODA loop is often hyped, but really it is just a description of how humans (and animals) behave in almost any situation. "Look, Think, Decide, Act" in other words. It's not valuable in the sense that you can "practice" or "apply" the loop and perform better. Your behavior already follows this model. Its real value probably came from presenting this common decision making process in a way that appealed to upper milit…

That's a bit underselling it, like saying "E = mc^2 is just a description of how light behaves" and sweeping it under the rug as if the explanatory model provides no additional benefit.

The value comes from the ability to consciously influence the various stages of the process instead of it simply being subconsciously driven. In fact, you can practice and apply the stages of the loop better - for example, making a list of questions you'd like to ask yourself during the observe phase in a given scenario. You practice consciously asking yourself observation questions enough and in time the brain integrates that into the subconscious processing loop.

Re: The OODA Loop: How Fighter Pilots Make Fast and Accurate Decisions

#12
"Because they’re developed and tested in the relentless laboratory of conflict, military mental models have practical applications far beyond their original context."

Really? How does that follow? Just because a process has been optimized for effectiveness in one area doesn't make it easily generalizable. It's probably more likely to be less effective, or even worse, outside the specific realm.

Re: The OODA Loop: How Fighter Pilots Make Fast and Accurate Decisions

#14
post #2

OODA loop is often hyped, but really it is just a description of how humans (and animals) behave in almost any situation. "Look, Think, Decide, Act" in other words. It's not valuable in the sense that you can "practice" or "apply" the loop and perform better. Your behavior already follows this model. Its real value probably came from presenting this common decision making process in a way that appealed to upper milit…

While I agree that the OODA loop is most often presented as a (fairly obvious) decision model for individuals, the model itself is not the big idea. Rather, the primary value comes from the realization that in a competition (like war, or business, or sports, etc) between two or more individuals/groups the ones who can "cycle through" the OODA loop will be able to adapt faster and often gain the upper hand through superior decision making.

In the context of the military, there are ways of reorganizing your command structure to enable faster OODA loop cycling. For example, a major driver of the "slowness" of traditional armies is their centralization of command. Propagating new intel up the chain and orders down to the troops takes a lot of time, especially when intermediate nodes keep dropping out. If you can delegate your decision making to the lowest possible level, this will make the average decision slightly worse, but because you can make each decision much faster you can still come out ahead overall. This is one of the ways an organization can "practice" the loop. (And coincidentally, one that growing startups often struggle with since it is very difficult to transition from direct command to delegation based command)

I also don't agree with your claim that you can't "practice" the loop on an individual level. Anyone who suffers from indecision in the face of uncertainty and overwhelming options ("analysis paralysis") should know that it is something you get better at over time, especially when you need to be doing it under time pressure.

Source: Was a Navy officer for 14 years, we had tons of discussions of "how to get into the opponents loop" during briefings and trainings. Note that in the military it is sometimes possible to actively slow down the opponents OODA looping, something that is probably illegal for most civilian companies. (Though see https://www.joelonsoftware.com/2002/01/06/fire-and-motion/ for a legal example)

Re: The OODA Loop: How Fighter Pilots Make Fast and Accurate Decisions

#15
post #9
post #2

OODA loop is often hyped, but really it is just a description of how humans (and animals) behave in almost any situation. "Look, Think, Decide, Act" in other words. It's not valuable in the sense that you can "practice" or "apply" the loop and perform better. Your behavior already follows this model. Its real value probably came from presenting this common decision making process in a way that appealed to upper milit…

Pretty sure I have met people who tended to do "Act, Look, Think, Decide" in that order! i.e. Do something daft, look at what they had done, think about the consequences and decide whether to admit to the mistake ;-)

It's the same when run as a loop though, so it's just a difference in opinion about where the loop started.

...), (Act, Look, Think, Decide, (Act, Look, Think, Decide), (Act, Look, ...

..., Act), (Look, Think, Decide, Act), (Look, Think, Decide, Act), (Look, ...

Re: The OODA Loop: How Fighter Pilots Make Fast and Accurate Decisions

#16

Related: terrific biography. Boyd: The Fighter Pilot Who Changed the Art of War by Robert Coram > https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/38840.Boyd

Second this. I first heard about this book in a comment on HN a few years ago (can't find it at the moment to link), and happily pay it forward whenever I can.

Re: The OODA Loop: How Fighter Pilots Make Fast and Accurate Decisions

#17
post #14
post #2

OODA loop is often hyped, but really it is just a description of how humans (and animals) behave in almost any situation. "Look, Think, Decide, Act" in other words. It's not valuable in the sense that you can "practice" or "apply" the loop and perform better. Your behavior already follows this model. Its real value probably came from presenting this common decision making process in a way that appealed to upper milit…

While I agree that the OODA loop is most often presented as a (fairly obvious) decision model for individuals, the model itself is not the big idea. Rather, the primary value comes from the realization that in a competition (like war, or business, or sports, etc) between two or more individuals/groups the ones who can "cycle through" the OODA loop will be able to adapt faster and often gain the upper hand through sup…

Great point and part of why I've increasingly developed a preference for Kanban and optimizing cycle time at organizations I've worked at. There's a great blog post [1] that popped up in my network which I think does an excellent job of describing this in a very visual, tangible manner.

[1] https://erikbern.com/2019/10/16/buffet-lines-are-terrible.ht...

Re: The OODA Loop: How Fighter Pilots Make Fast and Accurate Decisions

#18

For anyone interested in OODA, the Robert Coram biography of John Boyd, and "Certain to Win" by the Boyd disciple Chet Richards are good entry points. The value of OODA isn't really in providing a model for individual-level decisionmaking. The value is as a model for intra-organizational conflict: that one obtains strategic advantage (i.e. tempo) by running through one's OODA loop faster than competitors or opponents…

Indeed. The OODA loop model describes how you can win a competition by responding to a changing situation on the battlefield faster than your opponent. The Lean Startup describes basically the same thing but for civilian companies, and where the opponent is "the market" rather than a more well defined enemy.

"The Art of Action" by Stephen Bungay is also a very good book on this subject.

Re: The OODA Loop: How Fighter Pilots Make Fast and Accurate Decisions

#19
post #2

OODA loop is often hyped, but really it is just a description of how humans (and animals) behave in almost any situation. "Look, Think, Decide, Act" in other words. It's not valuable in the sense that you can "practice" or "apply" the loop and perform better. Your behavior already follows this model. Its real value probably came from presenting this common decision making process in a way that appealed to upper milit…

It might be overhyped but that doesn't mean there's nothing valuable in the model. While it might describe how the world works, it is also intended to bring your attention to specifics. For instance, maybe you don't do a great job of actually looking (observing as it's called in the model). If you have this model in your head to refer to, you can stop and think "Wait, I need to make sure that I'm considering all the relevant evidence before acting".
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