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SpaceX delivers 3rd batch of Starlink satellites in two weeks

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Re: SpaceX delivers 3rd batch of Starlink satellites in two weeks

#221
post #13

Amazing times, when a private company can launch 3 flights in two weeks, not even counting the Starship tests :). It is faszinating to see, how quickly Starlink is progressing, we are on the brink of global satellite broadband internet. This could be a substantial change especially in all the countries without a wide broadband availability. It will be interesting to see whether SpaceX can generate enough revenue to b…

Interestingly we are now moving into a situation where producing the terminals seems to be the limiting factor.

They seem to produce these sats at almost unbelievable rates. They are truly mass production. No like 'we build 70 over a couple years' mass production but more like motorcycles or something like that.

SpaceX is doing like 70+% of global transportation to Orbit and launching most of the world sats. Its actually insane.

And its really only been taking of since 2017, people will be suprised where they are in 2024. Not landing on Mars, but probably launching private unmanned missions to Mars.

For the moon the have DearMoon and hopefully get selected as a NASA partner.

Re: SpaceX delivers 3rd batch of Starlink satellites in two weeks

#222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bezos is in it only because he too has a rocket company. If he wanted to be in the business of feeding on the scraps of others he'd release his own terrestrial internet service.

That’s why Elon’s in it with Starlink. From Elon’s perspective, if Starlink merely breaks even, it will be more than worth it as it has drastically increased launch demand, enabling high flight rate reusable rockets.

IIRC Musk has already said he'd be happy to launch rival constellations.

Re: SpaceX delivers 3rd batch of Starlink satellites in two weeks

#223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Yeah, apparently just paint one rotor blade differently to make it stand out and birds will stay clear [1] The study you're citing was only studied 4 wind turbines, while the evidence does point towards this working, I wouldn't say that the existing evidence is conclusive. Also, the turbines with the darker blades still killed birds, just less bird than the turbines with standard blades.

Wind turbines don't kill enough birds to be more than a drop in the dead-bird bucket. It's a talking point used by people who were looking for reasons to be against wind turbines, but housecats kill four orders of magnitudes- not 4x, 10,000x- more birds each year. The percent of human-caused bird deaths due to wind turbines is smaller than the percent of Americans dying in airplane crashes each year, compared to all…

The species of birds that get killed are different. Wind turbines kill bigger birds, cats kill small songbirds.

Both are a non-negligible factor for their respective species.

Re: SpaceX delivers 3rd batch of Starlink satellites in two weeks

#224
post #80
post #13

Amazing times, when a private company can launch 3 flights in two weeks, not even counting the Starship tests :). It is faszinating to see, how quickly Starlink is progressing, we are on the brink of global satellite broadband internet. This could be a substantial change especially in all the countries without a wide broadband availability. It will be interesting to see whether SpaceX can generate enough revenue to b…

I agree I want to see Venus havoc mission. Floating a blimp in the atmosphere seems so cool

Would be cool, but SpaceX is not gone finance something like that. The next decadal survival is happing pretty soon. Unfortunately its unlike a large scale Venus mission will be picked.

That said, there very well might be a couple small and maybe one medium class missions picked. Don't think it would be a blimp, more likely an Orbiter.

Priority might end up being an lander for Europe style moon as a flagship. And further Moon and Mars exploration.

My hope honestly is that we do a serious rethink and go back to the Jupiter Icy Moons Orbiter but for Neptune or Uranus. A flagship mission, multiple launches, large nuclear reactor, massive amount of propellant, launched on specialised Starship to get there faster. With some real large radar on it, and maybe multiple smaller landers. Should be able to operate for 20-30 years in those systems.

This is how we need to think now for flagship missions.

I also hope for further study of a Dark side of the moon radio telescope built from moon resources.

Re: SpaceX delivers 3rd batch of Starlink satellites in two weeks

#225
post #136

Worth also pointing out: That's the 9th flight of Booster 1051. And it had a perfect landing. The goal of this design of Falcon 9 is to handle 10 flights with minimum refurbishment. Right now, it looks like they're within a couple months of achieving that goal for the first time, with booster 1049 close as well, at 8 flights. SpaceX is soon going to reach a point that they don't need to build more Falcon 9 boosters.

If we assume 10 as the max. The have at least 40-50 flights left in the boosters the have. Now some of those a reserved for NASA/DoD and while they can be reused, they will likely only be reused for those costumers. So in practice its a bit less.

If they can go significantly beyond 10, say 20, they have years of booster left if they want to.

I think they might only need to produce like 5ish or so more and that should mostly be fine until Starship destroys the market for the F9.

Re: SpaceX delivers 3rd batch of Starlink satellites in two weeks

#226
post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree I want to see Venus havoc mission. Floating a blimp in the atmosphere seems so cool

The Soviets sent a balloon to Venus, floated for a few hours I think. Would love to see such missions in HD.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vega_program#Balloon

Two balloons, about 46 hours of endurance, limiting factor apparently being running out of battery power.

Re: SpaceX delivers 3rd batch of Starlink satellites in two weeks

#227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Dishy also seems to continually pull 100 watts even when not in melt mode.

That’s some large continuous power consumption for off grid use. Curious if they’ll come up with a way to put it into some sort of low power idle mode during low utilization?

Yeah https://conversation.sevarg.net/t/starlink-satellite-based-i... talks about it - 100 watts idle is too high if you’re on battery.

It’s noticeably high so I assume at some point it’ll be reduced unless it’s caused by continuous “transmission” so the satellite doesn’t lose the connection.

Re: SpaceX delivers 3rd batch of Starlink satellites in two weeks

#228
Starlink is SpaceX's way of guaranteeing SpaceX has a launch client. It increases the number of launches they make, and drives down the cost per launch, both for themselves and for their other customers. They are creating a business model which is both profitable and drives profits to their launch business. This is similar to the synergy Amazon's online store and AWS have with each other.

If SpaceX has room on a launch vehicle or an empty launch vehicle, they stuff it with Starlink satellites. Since Starlink will require constant refreshes, SpaceX has a constant client, it becomes far easier for them to offer smaller payloads at good rates. This is SpaceX's way of commoditizing launches and keeping their launch service running regularly.

It's extremely clever use of complimentary resources.

Re: SpaceX delivers 3rd batch of Starlink satellites in two weeks

#229
post #4

I'm keen to see Starlink deals with government censorship requests. Can a country even effectively enforce their requests? How will China enforce the Great Firewall for instance?

By pressuring Tesla. One thing making me nervous with Tesla's China business is that it will become too big for Tesla to let it fail, at which point Tesla (and every other Musk company) will be beholden to the CCP.

I understand people panicking about this, but lets cool your horses a bit.

First of all, SpaceX will not sell Firewall circumvention in China. They are an ISP and need to follow the rules if they want to officially sell there.

Second, even if somehow people got terminals and try to use them, SpaceX could block them. And even if they didn't, the government could locate these people, relativity easily.

Third, even if you assume the CCP is so 'diabolical' to attack Tesla, because of SpaceX. The are not a universal power, China has big plans to have their own car companies be exporters of EV and export batteries and be a major player in the battery supply chain. If they went after Tesla will some BS rules, I would suspect it would cause an international issue on the highest level and would lead to tit-for-tat style destruction on all sides potentially.

SpaceX will never be beholden to China, neither will Boring or Neurolink.

Re: SpaceX delivers 3rd batch of Starlink satellites in two weeks

#230
post #192

For the people talking about space pollution and problems for astronomers. Yes, it is definitely an issue, but this constellation is also a way for many people to have access to education and information that will help them and their community. If you're curious about both the positives and negatives of Starlink I highly recommend the mini documentary "Is this the END of Astronomy?" - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=…

>Most things in life are like this. Wind turbines are a great way to supply green energy, but building them takes a lot of energy. Reminder : we only have one sky. Things offer both positives and negatives, but a) generally those things are decided by local powers and authorities that can be influenced by local populations -- not corporations from specific countries that may or may not be far away and without local p…

This is an excellent summary of a lot of the kickback and risk for Elon.

I think if Elon had gone to, say, the UN and tried to start a discussion about this stuff more generally to establish some ground rules for SpaceX and others, it would have been much better received. It would've given a forum to those affected - communities around the world and astronomers and other satellite operators - where none exists. Some discussions around things like target albedos, orbital parameters, and constellation sizes could've been had before a single bird went up. This would've also made life easier for other operators now working out how to dodge the Starlink constellation on the regular.

But Elon is not that sort of person, which is the great tragedy in all this. Maybe you have to be a screw-the-rest, I'm-going-to-do-it kind of person to succeed as he has (or just inherit a huge pile of cash, or maybe both). But it strikes me that as a strategy he's opted to go it alone until regulators start to step in, which is unlikely in this industry for a while given the global nature.

I think it will take something akin to the blocking of satellite uplinks (that brought the UN into international satellite operations somewhat, and effectively designated such jamming as an offensive act of war) to actually bring regulatory scrutiny to bear. The loss of ground-based astronomy isn't a big enough issue - yet - to justify the engagement. But if these constellations get bigger and bigger and the impact gets larger and larger, then that impact will add up. All we've had so far is the "early warnings" from those paying attention to the early deployments.

I think Starlink and its competitors are a very important short-term part of the global internet access discussion, but it's not a long-term fix; constant satellite launches, maintenance, and deorbiting will not be viable cost-wise over the 20-40 years most fibre installations expect to be around for at a minimum. Fibre will eventually reach everywhere - wireline operators across the globe are seeing Starlink as a short-term thing which may paradoxically make it much harder to justify rolling out a proper fix to the hardest to reach, and which may cause governments to deploy subsidy to offset the risk. In the USA it's a bit mad and distorted because of the insane market that regulators have allowed, but in the EU/UK and most of Asia, govts are making sure full fibre gets to everyone (slowly, in many cases, but it is speeding up rapidly these days).

Just like nuclear, this is a perfectly good stop-gap. But the right answer is renewables - everyone knows it - it's just a matter of timing.

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