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Vaccines should end the pandemic, despite the variants, say experts

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Re: Vaccines should end the pandemic, despite the variants, say experts

#121

Post by [deleted] »

erklik wrote: post #95
015a wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The United States has administered 2.3 million vaccination doses. Oh, lol no, not cumulatively. I mean Yesterday. We administered 2.3 million doses in about 14 daytime hours on March 12th. Naturally, the number of vaccinated individuals grows every day. That's what vaccinations do. But the number of doses we are administering every day is growing every day. One week ago, on March 8th, we administered about 2.05 milli…

>US will be one of the first countries back to normalcy I live in Australia. The country has been to normal for a long time now, and my state specifically had a lockdown at the start of the pandemic, and since August 2020, we have not had a major lock down (except for one week in Jan 2021 due to a outbreak scare) and have been living in normalcy since then. Just saying because it seems like people erasing and forgett…

[deleted]

Re: Vaccines should end the pandemic, despite the variants, say experts

#122

Post by [deleted] »

thrwayv2311 wrote: post #62

Right, but are all vaccines equal ? Take the chinese Sinovac one for instance, which several countries have been using for their mass vaccination program. Preliminary data in Brazil showed an efficacy of about 50% in preventing asymptomatic infection[1]. Are we sure that it will be able to "end the pandemic" in these countries as well as the mRNA ones? I remain a bit skeptical. In a CDC simulation[0] back in June 202…

[deleted]

Re: Vaccines should end the pandemic, despite the variants, say experts

#123

Post by DoreenMichele »

Covzire wrote: post #120
DoreenMichele wrote: post #110

I hope they are correct. I also hope we will continue to be more careful about germ control from here on out in myriad ways. I hope we do not blithely go back to "business as usual" in a way that fosters future pandemics as if we learned absolutely nothing here.

I worry also about an overreaction. At some level people who can survive a virus with little to no symptoms are better off contracting it than not, if only to form the antibodies to be ready for future mutants they might come in contact with. The behavior changes we make because of COVID could be dooming a lot of people to one day encounter much worse mutant viruses they could have been ready for.

I really hate this kind of logic. I get where it comes from but I still hate it.

I have a genetic disorder that causes a compromised immune system, so germ control is my life. My life got better in some important ways with the entire rest of the world being less germy and disgusting.

About one of out every five people is officially labeled "handicapped" and at least one study suggests that up to three out of every five people may have more minor impairments that they mostly cover up and don't want to label as a "handicap" because it's stigmatizing. A great many people with various handicaps are immunocompromised or otherwise vulnerable.

A lot of handicapped people saw some things improve for themselves while the entire world temporarily felt that germ control was super important. As one of those people, I am very concerned that "business as usual" will be a terrible thing for me.

I've tried to figure out how to write about what kinds of best practices I would like to see, but that never really gelled in part because I became very concerned it would make me a target for the fear and anger of a lot of people during a global crisis. I didn't want some sort of lynch mob to descend upon me while much of the world applauded their depravity because, hey, scapegoats rather than solutions seems to be a very popular pursuit in the world generally, even during "normal" times and folks seem to double down on that during crises.

Maybe I will still find a way to write about it and have some kind of influence on moving the needle gently but firmly in the right direction. And maybe not. I don't have much of an audience and like Rodney Dangerfield "I get no respect" and yadda.

Re: Vaccines should end the pandemic, despite the variants, say experts

#124

Post by luxuryballs »

DoreenMichele wrote: post #110

I hope they are correct. I also hope we will continue to be more careful about germ control from here on out in myriad ways. I hope we do not blithely go back to "business as usual" in a way that fosters future pandemics as if we learned absolutely nothing here.

What we learned should be not to decimate small businesses like tossing leaves to the wind “don’t worry we’ll build back better!” and let people decide their own risk taking.

I think that it’s almost more terrifying than the thing itself that more people aren’t mostly incredibly disturbed by the insane violations of privacy and speech.

Literally you should not, in a free society, be able take such injurious actions based on something that the average person cannot even verify.

It should never be that a tiny group of experts just have to be trusted to make decisions for everyone while the vast majority of the people are completely incapable of actually even seeing the threat.

The vaccine thing too is absurd, amazing how quickly a public health crisis becomes an attempt at side stepping private health decisions.

No amount of “but people could die” can justify this, that’s an irrelevant point, because there never a time when it was proper to remove autonomy for such a reason! It’s a total invasion of privacy that the government should even know where most people are at most times, what they are wearing or eating, or that private individuals should be corralled like cattle for the sake of “all cattle”, I just wish people could see what a huge privacy violation it is when a government decides that the most important thing above all else is to try and keep everyone alive as long as possible at the expense of each other and at the expense of freedom to avoid such an arrangement, privacy for bringing you into it in the first place, and opportunity cost of when you end up with no choice due to violent demands of state.

Re: Vaccines should end the pandemic, despite the variants, say experts

#125

Post by Covzire »

DoreenMichele wrote: post #123
Covzire wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I worry also about an overreaction. At some level people who can survive a virus with little to no symptoms are better off contracting it than not, if only to form the antibodies to be ready for future mutants they might come in contact with. The behavior changes we make because of COVID could be dooming a lot of people to one day encounter much worse mutant viruses they could have been ready for.

I really hate this kind of logic. I get where it comes from but I still hate it. I have a genetic disorder that causes a compromised immune system, so germ control is my life. My life got better in some important ways with the entire rest of the world being less germy and disgusting. About one of out every five people is officially labeled "handicapped" and at least one study suggests that up to three out of every fi…

Don't get me wrong I'm very open to a cleaner world. I watch videos of people walking around Tokyo and I marvel at the clean streets. Minimizing places for viruses to grow and mutate is a common ground I think nobody would attack anyone for suggesting, if they're well thought out and not attached to something already political anyway.

Re: Vaccines should end the pandemic, despite the variants, say experts

#126

Post by mikem170 »

ceejayoz wrote: post #76
mikem170 wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "If it means snogging random strangers ... might not be a reasonable thing to do until late 2021 or after for most of us" 7000 people ages 18-39 have dies of covid19 in the U.S. [0][1]. There's at least 75 million people in that age group! (maybe more, sorry no handy/easy/exact reference) That's 1 in 10,000 odds of dying for that age group. They are 20 times more likely to die of something else. I think it is unrea…

Quite a few people 18-39 have friends and family in more vulnerable age groups they can spread it to, and the "one-in-tens-of-thousands" odds are with unprecedented global mitigation measures. "The odds are low with distancing and closed nightclubs" is a weird argument for packed nightclubs being safe.

Why did you put "one-in-tens-of-thousands" in quotes?

I looked it up, in 2019 there were 89 million 20-39 years olds in the U.S. [0], and 7000 ages 18-39 died dies of covid19 [1]. Mathematically that works out to 1 in 12,714, and would be a bit higher were 18-19 years added to the denominator. I didn't mean to exaggerate this number.

You mentioned family in vulnerable groups. Lets grant common sense, that someone who lives with their Grandparent's isn't going to go clubbing? EDIT: People need to use common sense, and they seem to, even in when they are not being forced.

I wish that we could measure the effectiveness of mitigations. This may be your strongest counterpoint. I end up extrapolating worst case numbers sometimes. I'd love to see you come up with a worst case number. I've got the feeling we could agree on a number, but still might disagree on how we react to that number.

Every weekend the beach bars near the Florida city I'm located in are busy. The majority of people are not wearing masks, sometimes almost nobody, sometimes that includes staff. Some places, with DJs and bands, are literally packed shoulder to shoulder as the night wears on. Like it was 2019 again!

I've also been in NY for part of the pandemic, and keep up with my circle there. As far as I know it's like you said, the Florida beach bar scene would not be tolerated. The rules are a bit stricter in NY, better enforced, with less exceptions, with more state backing.

So why are per capita covid19 deaths higher in NY than in Florida? Florida has 1500 deaths per million, and NY has 2500. [2]

EDIT: I was replying to your points, and don't mean to sidetrack us. Perhaps we need to back up? Do you think it is unreasonable for a young person to go clubbing under any circumstances at the moment? IS a definite 1-2+ years of restrictions worth avoiding a small possible (1/1000 at worst?) chance of harm.

[0] https://www.statista.com/statistics/241488/population-of-the...

[1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-...

[2] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Re: Vaccines should end the pandemic, despite the variants, say experts

#127

Post by luxuryballs »

DoreenMichele wrote: post #123
Covzire wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I worry also about an overreaction. At some level people who can survive a virus with little to no symptoms are better off contracting it than not, if only to form the antibodies to be ready for future mutants they might come in contact with. The behavior changes we make because of COVID could be dooming a lot of people to one day encounter much worse mutant viruses they could have been ready for.

I really hate this kind of logic. I get where it comes from but I still hate it. I have a genetic disorder that causes a compromised immune system, so germ control is my life. My life got better in some important ways with the entire rest of the world being less germy and disgusting. About one of out every five people is officially labeled "handicapped" and at least one study suggests that up to three out of every fi…

But your genetic disorder shouldn’t be extended to negatively impact others, knowing your unique situation means you need to manage your risks. It’s entirely unfair and a violation of privacy for people to have to be brought into your health decisions and vice versa. Why would it ever be reasonable to expect the government to keep tabs on random strangers just because I have a genetic health condition?

I would much rather die than force someone else to suddenly be required to base their free agency around what happens to work best for me, especially because I am 100% going to die no matter what.

It just seems totally illogical to remove freedoms at scale to prevent something that is ultimately inevitable.

Basically seems like throwing the baby out with the bath water, what’s the point of having a society at all if people have to be micro-managed to the point of being enslaved to each other’s mortality? It just seems so obviously a mistake and a huge slippery slope.

What’s next, they tell us which people have to die so the rest of us don’t have to be burdened with them? That is essentially exactly what this type of government/healthcare overreach is doing.

Re: Vaccines should end the pandemic, despite the variants, say experts

#128

Post by kikokikokiko »

de6u99er wrote: post #112

A globally coordinated approach, similar to NZ's approach could have ended the oandemic already a year ago. Thanks to COVID-19 fatigue amongst the population, such an effort very close to impossible.

Comparing an island nation of 5 million people, that can effectively close it's borders and "avoid" new focuses of infection, to countries of 100+ million of people, where the difficulties of border closing are effectively unsurmountable, is extremely disingenuous. The whole approach governments took in facing this pandemic needs to be studied in the next decades. It's an eye opening thing to see how viruses spread pretty much the way they do, and there is almost nothing we can do to stop it. It's really humbling to see that if you keep everything open (i.e. Florida) you get the same results as if you make your population effectively stop to live for one year (i.e. California).

Re: Vaccines should end the pandemic, despite the variants, say experts

#129

Post by mikem170 »

maxerickson wrote: post #111
betwixthewires wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but its the data we have, and therefore the best estimate we have of the likelihood, on average.

The denominator could be an estimate of the number of people in the group that have been infected, that would probably be a better estimate of the individual risk from getting infected than just averaging the deaths so far out over the whole group.

I used the population of that age group as the denominator.

The numbers of infected by age group are not as easy to find, and perhaps not so accurate (confirmed vs non-confirmed, etc).

I've approached this numerically since numbers started coming out of NYC last spring. It's just the way I've been comfortable estimating/qualifying the risk.

Re: Vaccines should end the pandemic, despite the variants, say experts

#130

Post by DoreenMichele »

luxuryballs wrote: post #127
DoreenMichele wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I really hate this kind of logic. I get where it comes from but I still hate it. I have a genetic disorder that causes a compromised immune system, so germ control is my life. My life got better in some important ways with the entire rest of the world being less germy and disgusting. About one of out every five people is officially labeled "handicapped" and at least one study suggests that up to three out of every fi…

But your genetic disorder shouldn’t be extended to negatively impact others, knowing your unique situation means you need to manage your risks. It’s entirely unfair and a violation of privacy for people to have to be brought into your health decisions and vice versa. Why would it ever be reasonable to expect the government to keep tabs on random strangers just because I have a genetic health condition? I would much r…

I shouldn't have to tell people I have a genetic disorder to have them respect my desire to keep their damn hands off of me.

Expecting random strangers to not touch me is not some huge invasive expectation. Quite the contrary: The people who think they are entitled to touch me are being invasive and making an imposition. People should not feel that because I'm poor or an attractive woman or whatever that touching me is appropriate behavior when we are total strangers.

That's just one example and I don't intend to discuss this further with you.

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