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Earlier quoted context omitted.
1 in 10,000 is the death rate so far, not the individual odds of dying if everyone in the age group gets sick.
Sure, but its the data we have, and therefore the best estimate we have of the likelihood, on average.
Thanks to COVID-19 fatigue amongst the population, such an effort very close to impossible.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's crazy to think about how HIV has killed some ~32 million people, and yet we rarely hear about it anymore. COVID probably won't even hit 4 million deaths (barring some much deadlier variant that we can't easily produce a new vaccine for).
Because any attempt to address the underlying cause of spread of HIV will be deemed as homophobic or backward in today's culture.
These kind of pandemic tend to end themselves after about 20-30 months. We’re about half way there anyway.
The last pandemic with a death toll anything like (actually much worse than) COVID-19 is the still-ongoing HIV pandemic. It's entering its 40th year .
HIV gets transmitted by sex, sharing needles or similar. So, no, it's not comparable. It's vastly easier to avoid.
Nonetheless, they've made a lot of progress on treatment since I first began hearing about it in high school.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Sure, but its the data we have, and therefore the best estimate we have of the likelihood, on average.
The denominator could be an estimate of the number of people in the group that have been infected, that would probably be a better estimate of the individual risk from getting infected than just averaging the deaths so far out over the whole group.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
The denominator could be an estimate of the number of people in the group that have been infected, that would probably be a better estimate of the individual risk from getting infected than just averaging the deaths so far out over the whole group.
I believe that 1 in 10000 number is what you want it to be, the number of deaths per infection in that age group, not the number of deaths per population of that age group. 1 in 10000 infections leading to death gives us a presumably reasonably accurate likelihood of death rates if everyone in that age group were to get infected.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
>US will be one of the first countries back to normalcy I live in Australia. The country has been to normal for a long time now, and my state specifically had a lockdown at the start of the pandemic, and since August 2020, we have not had a major lock down (except for one week in Jan 2021 due to a outbreak scare) and have been living in normalcy since then. Just saying because it seems like people erasing and forgett…
New Zealand comes to mind as well.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Don’t remember the study but pretty sure that cross reactivity thesis to common cold eventually didn’t pan out. Believe Derek Lowe wrote about it.
Lowe's Feb 2021 article was about antibodies, not T-cells, https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/02/10/do... > Now, you can still make an argument that the T cell component of immunity might provide some protection after a previous coronavirus infection. The current study didn’t address this directly Lowe's July 2020 article on T-cells, https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/07/15/ne... > t…
OT: Imagine "experts" from our industry explain the mainstream our world: e.g. what's the right programming language, or database technology, why types matter, or not? Why do we trust "experts" from other industries?
But do you mean: so-called experts? As in, not experts? Well, then that's just a question of finding the real ones, if they exist.
Or do you dislike how they oversimplify when talking to the public? I do too. All nuance is erased. The trick, then, is find out what (true, non-politized) experts say to each other when the public isn't listening.
I hope they are correct. I also hope we will continue to be more careful about germ control from here on out in myriad ways. I hope we do not blithely go back to "business as usual" in a way that fosters future pandemics as if we learned absolutely nothing here.