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Vaccines should end the pandemic, despite the variants, say experts

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Re: Vaccines should end the pandemic, despite the variants, say experts

#71

Post by mike_d »

bsaul wrote: post #11

i'm very surprised to see remdesivir mentionned in this article at all... Isn't this drug officialy not working at all against covid-19 , and as such should be banned because of perfusion side-effects ? (in addition to the fact that it seems to be known to increase the amount of virus genetic mutations in people treated with it)

From what I understand Remdesivir doesn't show results in mortality, but has positive results in recovery speed of patients who otherwise would not have died. I believe it shaves about 5 days off the supplemental O2/ICU phase, which decreases the window in which you can develop other complications and also gets your butt out to free up hospital resources quicker.

Mexico just issued an emergency use authorization yesterday. Japan, Canada, and the EU have also authorized the drug for COVID patients.

You can read the NIH final report here: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2007764

Re: Vaccines should end the pandemic, despite the variants, say experts

#74

Post by Trasmatta »

tubularhells wrote: post #58

What nobody wants to talk about is that it might take several more years for things to go back to somewhat normal. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6... >In developing its COVID-19 Scenarios Project, the ISC has consulted with WHO and the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction. The ISC has established in February, 2021, a multidisciplinary Oversight Panel made up of globally representative wo…

> it might take several more years for things to go back to somewhat normal.

People always make statements like this, but nobody defines what "normal" actually means. Some things will probably never go back to the way they were. Does that mean things won't be "normal"?

Normal also means entirely different things for different countries and different individuals. That's why I dislike statements like this, unless there's at least an attempt to define what you mean by "normal".

Re: Vaccines should end the pandemic, despite the variants, say experts

#75

Post by mikem170 »

tialaramex wrote: post #64
beervirus wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fact that they’re planning for years in the future doesn’t mean it’ll take that long for things to get back to normal.

That also depends what "normal" means to you. If normal just means you get to hug your grandmother who lives an hour away it might be safe right now (in a bunch of countries) or permitted but perhaps unwise (in a lot more countries) and it's likely that for most HN readers it will become a reasonable thing to do around mid-2021. If it means snogging random strangers at a crowded nightclub after a night of drinking th…

> "If it means snogging random strangers ... might not be a reasonable thing to do until late 2021 or after for most of us"

7000 people ages 18-39 have dies of covid19 in the U.S. [0][1]. There's at least 75 million people in that age group! (maybe more, sorry no handy/easy/exact reference)

That's 1 in 10,000 odds of dying for that age group. They are 20 times more likely to die of something else.

I think it is unreasonable that any of these people are restricting themselves out of fear. The 1 in 10,000 odds don't justify missing out on loosing the enjoyment of 1-2 in 20 years of their youth.

For those who are healthy and not old the numbers do not appear to back up the prevailing fearful narrative around this virus.

[0] https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-...

[1] https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Deaths-Counts...

Re: Vaccines should end the pandemic, despite the variants, say experts

#76

Post by ceejayoz »

mikem170 wrote: post #75
tialaramex wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That also depends what "normal" means to you. If normal just means you get to hug your grandmother who lives an hour away it might be safe right now (in a bunch of countries) or permitted but perhaps unwise (in a lot more countries) and it's likely that for most HN readers it will become a reasonable thing to do around mid-2021. If it means snogging random strangers at a crowded nightclub after a night of drinking th…

> "If it means snogging random strangers ... might not be a reasonable thing to do until late 2021 or after for most of us" 7000 people ages 18-39 have dies of covid19 in the U.S. [0][1]. There's at least 75 million people in that age group! (maybe more, sorry no handy/easy/exact reference) That's 1 in 10,000 odds of dying for that age group. They are 20 times more likely to die of something else. I think it is unrea…

Quite a few people 18-39 have friends and family in more vulnerable age groups they can spread it to, and the "one-in-tens-of-thousands" odds are with unprecedented global mitigation measures.

"The odds are low with distancing and closed nightclubs" is a weird argument for packed nightclubs being safe.

Re: Vaccines should end the pandemic, despite the variants, say experts

#78

Post by Izkata »

015a wrote: post #68
credit_guy wrote: post #19

What I don't understand is this: with tens of millions of people already vaccinated, why aren't we seeing a huge drive to collect plasma from vaccinated people with high level of antibodies? In the early days of the pandemic (about 1 year ago), I remember China sent a large amount of plasma to Italy. Why can't the US do the same now? The US is sitting on millions of AstraZeneca vaccines (that are not even approvad by…

The United States has administered 2.3 million vaccination doses. Oh, lol no, not cumulatively. I mean Yesterday. We administered 2.3 million doses in about 14 daytime hours on March 12th. Naturally, the number of vaccinated individuals grows every day. That's what vaccinations do. But the number of doses we are administering every day is growing every day. One week ago, on March 8th, we administered about 2.05 milli…

> People give Trump shit for his statement that, one day, the virus will just magically disappear. He deserves it, but not because it won't disappear; it will disappear, but it won't be because of magic.

The "magic" part, I think, was about perception: Infection rates have been dropping almost worldwide for two months (more, in some places), but people seem to think infections are steady or still increasing despite vaccinations (concern about variants, old messaging (we still have signs up from November here), etc). For a lot of people, it will look like magic when it's suddenly no longer a concern.

Re: Vaccines should end the pandemic, despite the variants, say experts

#79

Post by hanklazard »

abacadaba wrote: post #59
hanklazard wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The monoclonal data is less concerning since the human antibody response is polyclonal. It’s not surprising that this virus can escape from a single targeted antibody and if I were in pharm, this is why I wouldn’t spend billions on a mAb drug. I agree that the decreased convalescent plasma effectiveness is not ideal but I doubt this virus will be able to fully escape the mRNA vaccines on a population level. Polyclona…

The new one is supposed to be targeting a conserved site on the protein, where any change would make it non functional https://www.investorideas.com/news/2021/biotech/03122Vir-COV... "The company commented that compared with other monoclonal antibodies, "VIR-7831 binds to a highly conserved epitope of the spike protein, which may make it more difficult for resistance to develop." Vir Biotechnology's CEO George Scango…

I guess I'm just skeptical that anyone can be truly sure of which exposed epitopes are conserved (I haven't seen data on this residue or drug, these are just my thoughts). Given that we're talking about a three dimensional structure, you really need a number of conserved residues in physical proximity to have an inescapable monoclonal antibody. It seems quite possible that there aren't any targets like this and that only a polyclonal immune response, or maybe a cocktail of monoclonals, can be effective in the long-term.

Re: Vaccines should end the pandemic, despite the variants, say experts

#80

Post by xadhominemx »

gizmo686 wrote: post #47
xadhominemx wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because it’s a lot easier to manufacture and distribute the vaccines

Vaccines and plasma serve 2 different purposes. A vaccine will provide long term protection, but do nothing to help a patient who is sick now [0]. In contrast, plasma will help a patient who is infected now, but provide no long term protection. [0] Or, at least, the Covid vaccine has not been proven to do anything to help a patient who is sick now. There are cases (such as rabies) where getting vaccinated after being…

At any point there are millions or tens of millions of people with COVID. Can’t really make much of a dent with plasma.
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